Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Falling Chinese asset markets have resulted in growing fears that China's economy is in a 'hard landing'</li><li>Policymaker actions may have exacerbated concerns, but a careful study of the data suggests all is not lost</li><li>Chinese manufacturing is facing a major downturn, but services are still strong; a twin-speed economy</li><li>Commodity exporters to China face a secular decline in demand, but service exporters should prosper</li><li>Our rebalancing, your problem - EM faces greater challenges from China's rebalancing than China itself</li><li>Short-term risks of a hard landing have been reduced, but medium-term risks continue to increase</li></ul>

Falling Chinese asset markets have resulted in growing fears that China's economy is in a 'hard landing'Policymaker actions may have exacerbated concerns, but a careful study of the data suggests all is not lostChinese manufacturing is facing a major downturn, but services are still strong; a twin-speed economyCommodity exporters to China face a secular decline in demand, but service exporters should prosperOur rebalancing, your problem - EM faces greater challenges from China's rebalancing than China itselfShort-term risks of a hard landing have been reduced, but medium-term risks continue to increase

Asia Calling: China's Great Rebalancing - Why the Consensus Is Wrong

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on ZIJIN MINING, YUNNAN ALUMINIUM, PING AN INSURANCE, Xinjiang Daqo, TONGWEI, PETROCHINA, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on ZIJIN MINING, YUNNAN ALUMINIUM, PING AN INSURANCE, Xinjiang Daqo, TONGWEI, PETROCHINA, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT.


CSI 300 Index Earning Revision (Mar): ZIJIN MINING, YUNNAN ALUMINIUM, PING AN INSURANCE

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

After an intriguing 2015 when the economy surprised to the downside by the stock market performed "relatively" well, China is amongst our main concerns for 2016 as the signs pointing to a "sudden stop" continue to grow.

After an intriguing 2015 when the economy surprised to the downside by the stock market performed "relatively" well, China is amongst our main concerns for 2016 as the signs pointing to a "sudden stop" continue to grow.

China

Huatai Securities is a leading technology-driven and fully integrated securities firm offering comprehensive financial services. Its core businesses include wealth management, institutional services, investment management, and international business, providing brokerage, investment banking, and asset management solutions. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Nanjing, China.

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Huatai Securities (6886 HK)

It Is All Playing Out with China's Banks

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Calling: China's Great Rebalancing - Why the Consensus Is Wrong

Falling Chinese asset markets have resulted in growing fears that China's economy is in a 'hard landing' Policymaker actions may have exacerbated...

Callum Henderson

A Gradual NPL Cycle in Asia

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%,...

Daniel Tabbush

CSI 300 Index Earning Revision (Mar): ZIJIN MINING, YUNNAN ALUMINIUM, PING AN INSURANCE

We analyzed CSI 300's consensus for Mar 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in ZIJIN MINING, YUNNAN ALUMINIUM, PING AN INSURANCE, Xinjiang Daqo,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A "Sudden Stop" For China in 2016?

After an intriguing 2015 when the economy surprised to the downside by the stock market performed "relatively" well, China is amongst our main...

John-Paul Smith

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