HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>'s announced merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongxing-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25320:1" rel="noopener">Dongxing Securities (601198 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cinda-securities-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45389:1" rel="noopener">Cinda Securities (601059 CH)</a> will elevate it to the 3rd largest HK-listed Chinese securities company.</li>
<li>Based on our assumptions, its EPS will be diluted by 7.1%, BPS enhanced by 12.2%, and ROE lowered by 1pp for FY26, before accounting for synergy.</li>
<li>Its presence in Fujian (+616.7%), Liaoning (+500%), and Beijing (+100%) will be significantly enlarged. Additionally, it will open up potential benefits from optimisation.</li>
</ul>



CICC (3908 HK)'s announced merger with Dongxing Securities (601198 CH) and Cinda Securities (601059 CH) will elevate it to the 3rd largest HK-listed Chinese securities company.
Based on our assumptions, its EPS will be diluted by 7.1%, BPS enhanced by 12.2%, and ROE lowered by 1pp for FY26, before accounting for synergy.
Its presence in Fujian (+616.7%), Liaoning (+500%), and Beijing (+100%) will be significantly enlarged. Additionally, it will open up potential benefits from optimisation.


CICC (3908 HK): Initial Assessment of the Merger

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 62.2% as of Oct 31st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 2.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, financials and offset by real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities, Guangzhou Automobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 62.2% as of Oct 31st.
The average A-H premium changed by 2.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, financials and offset by real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities, Guangzhou Automobile.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 31st): Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 61.1% as of Oct 17th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.0ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, real estate, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hua Hong Semiconductor, Sinotrans, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Southern Airlines.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 61.1% as of Oct 17th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.0ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, real estate, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hua Hong Semiconductor, Sinotrans, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences, China Southern Airlines.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 17th): Hua Hong Semiconductor, Sinotrans, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.2% as of Oct 10th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.9ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, financials, consumer discretionary and offset by utilities, information technology, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai Electric, SMIC, CIMC, Gf Securities.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.2% as of Oct 10th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.9ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, financials, consumer discretionary and offset by utilities, information technology, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai Electric, SMIC, CIMC, Gf Securities.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 10th): Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai Electric, SMIC

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>YTD, H-share securities companies outperformed the HSI and HSCEI, but valuations are still undemanding at 12.7x and 11.7x PERs for FY25 and FY26.</li>
<li>2H25F earnings for the sector are too conservative at -2.5%, compared with 64.9% YoY growth in 1H25. There is significant earnings upgrade potential after the 3Q25 result announcements.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-galaxy-securities-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:165:1" rel="noopener">China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/everbright-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22736:1" rel="noopener">Everbright Securities (H) (6178 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csc-financial-co-ltd-115216b6-b1c3-42f3-a314-a7ed93ea0b8e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23710:1" rel="noopener">CSC Financial (6066 HK)</a> appear interesting.</li>
</ul>


YTD, H-share securities companies outperformed the HSI and HSCEI, but valuations are still undemanding at 12.7x and 11.7x PERs for FY25 and FY26.
2H25F earnings for the sector are too conservative at -2.5%, compared with 64.9% YoY growth in 1H25. There is significant earnings upgrade potential after the 3Q25 result announcements.

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK), China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK), Everbright Securities (H) (6178 HK), and CSC Financial (6066 HK) appear interesting.


China Strategy: Interesting H-Share Securities Companies

China

Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. operates securities businesses. The Company provides securities brokerage, securities underwriting, asset management, investment banking, and online exchange services. Huatai Securities mainly conducts businesses domestically.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Huatai Securities Co Ltd (HTSC LI)

CICC (3908 HK): Initial Assessment of the Merger

CICC's merger with Dongxing and Cinda will make it the 3rd largest Chinese securities company, with diluted EPS, enhanced BPS, and lowered ROE for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 31st): Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities, Guangzhou...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 17th): Hua Hong Semiconductor, Sinotrans, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Hua Hong Semiconductor, Sinotrans, Shanghai Junshi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 10th): Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai Electric, SMIC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CICC (3908 HK): Initial Assessment of the Merger

​CICC's merger with Dongxing and Cinda will make it the 3rd largest Chinese securities company, with diluted EPS, enhanced BPS, and lowered ROE for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 31st): Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities, Guangzhou...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 17th): Hua Hong Semiconductor, Sinotrans, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Hua Hong Semiconductor, Sinotrans, Shanghai Junshi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 10th): Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai Electric, SMIC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Cosco Shipping Development, Innocare Pharma, Shanghai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Strategy: Interesting H-Share Securities Companies

​H-share securities companies show strong performance and potential for earnings upgrades, with undemanding valuations. CICC, China Galaxy,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CICC's merger with Dongxing and Cinda will make it the 3rd largest Chinese securities company, with diluted EPS, enhanced BPS, and lowered ROE for...

H-share securities companies show strong performance and potential for earnings upgrades, with undemanding valuations. CICC, China Galaxy,...