Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this issue of Thai Macro Watch, we look at five news on the global front that may impact Thai equities directly or indirectly:<ul>
<li>
Acceleration of trade wars. Trump appears to be making peace with the rest of the world to focus on China. Many sectors, such as tourism and electronics, stand to benefit. The impact on the overall economy and other sectors are less obvious.</li>
<li>
The boycott against Huawei has spread to Google and has many European governments and American firms wondering. In Thailand on this theme, we would be cautious on COM7 and AIS on the smartphone front, though there is no sign that Thailand will boycott Huawei's best-selling network equipment.</li>
<li>
Standoff in Iran may drive oil prices upwards and benefit stocks like PTTEP and Thai Oil in the short term. From various news, our sense is that Trump needs to step up pressure on Iran, fueling uncertainty, though he is unlikely to attack them.</li>
<li>
Telenor merges its Asia unit with Axiata. This Asia unit includes DTAC. While Axiata may not be known for the best management, there could be positives for DTAC with regards to capital and share ownership.</li>
<li>
Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency. Libra comes with fiat currency reserves absent in other cryptos as well as numerous influential partners, posing a threat to bankers worldwide.</li>
</ul>

In this issue of Thai Macro Watch, we look at five news on the global front that may impact Thai equities directly or indirectly:

Acceleration of trade wars. Trump appears to be making peace with the rest of the world to focus on China. Many sectors, such as tourism and electronics, stand to benefit. The impact on the overall economy and other sectors are less obvious.

The boycott against Huawei has spread to Google and has many European governments and American firms wondering. In Thailand on this theme, we would be cautious on COM7 and AIS on the smartphone front, though there is no sign that Thailand will boycott Huawei's best-selling network equipment.

Standoff in Iran may drive oil prices upwards and benefit stocks like PTTEP and Thai Oil in the short term. From various news, our sense is that Trump needs to step up pressure on Iran, fueling uncertainty, though he is unlikely to attack them.

Telenor merges its Asia unit with Axiata. This Asia unit includes DTAC. While Axiata may not be known for the best management, there could be positives for DTAC with regards to capital and share ownership.

Facebook introduces a new cryptocurrency. Libra comes with fiat currency reserves absent in other cryptos as well as numerous influential partners, posing a threat to bankers worldwide.


Thai Macro Watch: Huawei, Trade Wars, and More

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

The oil market is keeping global economic headwinds firmly in sight, with weakening manufacturing activity across several parts of the world in June serving a fresh reminder. 
Crude prices tend to jump if there is a big weekly drawdown in crude stocks, or a fresh incident triggers a spike in tensions in the oil-rich Middle East. But the rallies don't seem to have staying power. Market sentiment defaults to bearishness from demand growth fears. 
When the words “tentative” and “fragile” appear with mentions of the trade war truce agreed between presidents Trump and Xi barely a week after their meeting in Osaka, oil bulls know better than to try and take centre-stage again. 
Yes, some puzzle over why crude remains on a slippery slope despite supply restraints (OPEC cuts), constraints (Iran, Venezuela) and risks (Middle East tensions). We explore why some of these are being discounted, and for good reason.
The extension of output cuts wasn’t really the main news out of the OPEC/non-OPEC meetings in Vienna last week. We give you our take on what was more important.

The oil market is keeping global economic headwinds firmly in sight, with weakening manufacturing activity across several parts of the world in June serving a fresh reminder. 
Crude prices tend to jump if there is a big weekly drawdown in crude stocks, or a fresh incident triggers a spike in tensions in the oil-rich Middle East. But the rallies don't seem to have staying power. Market sentiment defaults to bearishness from demand growth fears. 
When the words “tentative” and “fragile” appear with mentions of the trade war truce agreed between presidents Trump and Xi barely a week after their meeting in Osaka, oil bulls know better than to try and take centre-stage again. 
Yes, some puzzle over why crude remains on a slippery slope despite supply restraints (OPEC cuts), constraints (Iran, Venezuela) and risks (Middle East tensions). We explore why some of these are being discounted, and for good reason.
The extension of output cuts wasn’t really the main news out of the OPEC/non-OPEC meetings in Vienna last week. We give you our take on what was more important.

Weekly Oil Views: Sentiment Defaults to Demand Growth Fears

Crude suffered the biggest one-day drop of the year on Thursday (May 23), as fears of economic headwinds from an intensifying US-China trade war prompted investors to dump risk assets, including oil.
Brent and WTI plunged by 5-6% to close at two-month lows, though prices had recouped a little less than a third of the losses by Friday's market close. 
In the meantime, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East receded into the background, taking crude’s fear premium with them.
We are glad – and proud – that events of the past week proved exactly what we had laid out in our last Weekly Oil Views, about the fear premium as well as hopes for a trade deal being unreliable and unpredictable supporters of crude prices.
Here's something new to ponder this week: Just when the market has written off a US-China trade agreement happening any time soon, the two sides could make it happen. Yes, it would be pulling a rabbit out of a hat, but this year has been nothing if not full of surprises and last-minute reversals.

Crude suffered the biggest one-day drop of the year on Thursday (May 23), as fears of economic headwinds from an intensifying US-China trade war prompted investors to dump risk assets, including oil.
Brent and WTI plunged by 5-6% to close at two-month lows, though prices had recouped a little less than a third of the losses by Friday's market close. 
In the meantime, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East receded into the background, taking crude’s fear premium with them.
We are glad – and proud – that events of the past week proved exactly what we had laid out in our last Weekly Oil Views, about the fear premium as well as hopes for a trade deal being unreliable and unpredictable supporters of crude prices.
Here's something new to ponder this week: Just when the market has written off a US-China trade agreement happening any time soon, the two sides could make it happen. Yes, it would be pulling a rabbit out of a hat, but this year has been nothing if not full of surprises and last-minute reversals. 

Weekly Oil Views: Trade War Returns to Haunt Oil but Don't Discount a Breakthrough

Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
This Geopolitical Comment comes out only two weeks after the previous issue. We feel compelled to provide our commentary on the breakdown of US-China trade talks, which have provoked a strong market reaction, and other important geopolitical events that have occurred in the 1st half of May. We think that the probability of the US and China returning to the negotiating table and arriving at a viable trade agreement is vanishing. Our base scenario is that the trade war will carry on and will cause a further downward adjustment in the global stock indices. Further renminbi weakening may also be on the cards.
</div>


This Geopolitical Comment comes out only two weeks after the previous issue. We feel compelled to provide our commentary on the breakdown of US-China trade talks, which have provoked a strong market reaction, and other important geopolitical events that have occurred in the 1st half of May. We think that the probability of the US and China returning to the negotiating table and arriving at a viable trade agreement is vanishing. Our base scenario is that the trade war will carry on and will cause a further downward adjustment in the global stock indices. Further renminbi weakening may also be on the cards.


Geopolitical Comment: Trade War Between US and China Escalates After Breakdown in Talks

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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<ul>
<li>China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers</li>
<li>Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be</li>
<li>Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected</li>
<li>Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income</li>
<li>Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income</li>
<li>Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP </li>
<li>Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network</li>
<li>Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government's resolve</li>
<li>Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries</li>
</ul>


China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers
Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually be
Thermal and metallurgical coal exports affected
Impacting ~A$8.4Bn of metallurgical coal exports; or 4.4% of national income
Thermal coal exports affected worth ~A$3.8Bn; or an additional 2% of national income
Collectively, thermal and metallurgical exports equate to ~0.9% of Australian annual GDP 
Actions appear to be a response to blocking Huawei bidding for the 5G network
Recent Chinese cyber-attacks harden Australian Government's resolve
Expect similar Chinese measures (in time) to be applied to other commodities and industries


Confluence of Politics - China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

China

Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. provides networking products and telecommunication solutions. The Company researches and develops internet access, transmission network, servers, storage, security, and other networking products. Huawei Technologies also offers business consulting, network integration, assurance, managed, learning, and global delivery services.

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Huawei Technology (40978Z CH)

Thai Macro Watch: Huawei, Trade Wars, and More

In this issue of Thai Macro Watch, we look at five news on the global front that may impact Thai equities directly or indirectly: Acceleration of...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Weekly Oil Views: Sentiment Defaults to Demand Growth Fears

The oil market is keeping global economic headwinds firmly in sight, with weakening manufacturing activity across several parts of the world in...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Trade War Returns to Haunt Oil but Don't Discount a Breakthrough

Crude suffered the biggest one-day drop of the year on Thursday (May 23), as fears of economic headwinds from an intensifying US-China trade war...

Vandana Hari

Geopolitical Comment: Trade War Between US and China Escalates After Breakdown in Talks

This Geopolitical Comment comes out only two weeks after the previous issue. We feel compelled to provide our commentary on the breakdown of...

Tatiana Orlova

Confluence of Politics - China Bans Australian Coal Imports (Flash Note)

China implements coal import caps specifically targeting Australian producers Unclear as to how widespread these restrictions will eventually...

Boost Research

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Market Cap (USDm)

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