Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued</li>
<li>Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete</li>
<li>As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?</li>
</ul>


In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued
Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete
As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival</li>
<li>Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control</li>
<li>But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival
Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control
But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release


Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CPNG/BABA/PDD : Coupang sacrifices profitability for growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)</li>
<li>LI/XPEV/NIO/TLSA1211.HK: Tesla raises prices for Model 3 + Model Y on November 9th (+)</li>
<li>ZLAB: ZLAB's Q3 revenue slightly lower than our estimates, R&amp;D compressed profits</li>
</ul>


CPNG/BABA/PDD : Coupang sacrifices profitability for growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)
LI/XPEV/NIO/TLSA1211.HK: Tesla raises prices for Model 3 + Model Y on November 9th (+)
ZLAB: ZLAB's Q3 revenue slightly lower than our estimates, R&amp;D compressed profits


[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

<ul>
<li>China hotel supply shortage haven’t fully recovered from Covid, the total hotel volume is still 11% lower than pre-Covid level in 2023, we expect a full recovery in 2024.</li>
<li>Due to the continue of hotel supply shortage, we think hotel groups in China can still enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months.</li>
<li>We think Atour has better fundamentals than Huazhu/Jinjiang/BTG, in terms of 1) hotel room scale leverage; 2) RevPAR quality; 3) upper midscale class positioning and less burden in legacy brands.</li>
</ul>


China hotel supply shortage haven’t fully recovered from Covid, the total hotel volume is still 11% lower than pre-Covid level in 2023, we expect a full recovery in 2024.
Due to the continue of hotel supply shortage, we think hotel groups in China can still enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months.
We think Atour has better fundamentals than Huazhu/Jinjiang/BTG, in terms of 1) hotel room scale leverage; 2) RevPAR quality; 3) upper midscale class positioning and less burden in legacy brands.


[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

<ul>
<li>September outbound tourism metrics plummeted, in some cases to levels seen in Q223</li>
<li>Domestic air travel demand also fell vs August; normal seasonal patterns are dominating</li>
<li>As recovery fizzles, travel shares languish, and we see few reasons for optimism, near-term</li>
</ul>


September outbound tourism metrics plummeted, in some cases to levels seen in Q223
Domestic air travel demand also fell vs August; normal seasonal patterns are dominating
As recovery fizzles, travel shares languish, and we see few reasons for optimism, near-term


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

October outbound demand increased vs September but remains below pre-pandemic levels. We've long viewed Trip.com negatively as a growth stock, but...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

China hotels can continue to enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months, thanks to supply shortage in reopening. Atour (ATAT) looks...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

Outbound tourism activity in September declined vs August, in some cases down to levels seen in Q2. Domestic activity also disappointed, and we see...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

October outbound demand increased vs September but remains below pre-pandemic levels. We've long viewed Trip.com negatively as a growth stock, but...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE

​Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Lodging Sector Update]: Dividend from Supply Shortage Can Continue into 2024

China hotels can continue to enjoy the premium pricing in the next 6-12 months, thanks to supply shortage in reopening. Atour (ATAT) looks...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

Outbound tourism activity in September declined vs August, in some cases down to levels seen in Q2. Domestic activity also disappointed, and we see...

Tracking Traffic

Coupang prioritizes growth over profitability, Tesla increases prices for Model 3 and Model Y, ZLAB's Q3 revenue falls short of estimates.