Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival</li>
<li>Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control</li>
<li>But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival
Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control
But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release


Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

<ul>
<li>September outbound tourism metrics plummeted, in some cases to levels seen in Q223</li>
<li>Domestic air travel demand also fell vs August; normal seasonal patterns are dominating</li>
<li>As recovery fizzles, travel shares languish, and we see few reasons for optimism, near-term</li>
</ul>


September outbound tourism metrics plummeted, in some cases to levels seen in Q223
Domestic air travel demand also fell vs August; normal seasonal patterns are dominating
As recovery fizzles, travel shares languish, and we see few reasons for optimism, near-term


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

<ul>
<li>Outbound daily traffic during the long holiday down -15% vs 2019, and short of expectations</li>
<li>Total domestic trips up 4% vs 2019, but average daily trips -9% &amp; average daily spending -4%</li>
<li>Ten months in, the pace of China's 2023 tourism recovery remains disappointingly sluggish</li>
</ul>


Outbound daily traffic during the long holiday down -15% vs 2019, and short of expectations
Total domestic trips up 4% vs 2019, but average daily trips -9% &amp; average daily spending -4%
Ten months in, the pace of China's 2023 tourism recovery remains disappointingly sluggish


Quick Take on 'Golden Week' Headline Tourism Traffic: Limited Improvement, & Shy of Expectations

<ul>
<li>August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises</li>
<li>The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August -- what do airlines see ahead?</li>
<li>Is there really "pent-up" tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don't think so</li>
</ul>


August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises
The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August -- what do airlines see ahead?
Is there really "pent-up" tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don't think so


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | 'Pent-Up' Travel Demand -- Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

<ul>
<li>Strong Q2 results out Tuesday morning beat consensus Revenue and core EPS estimates</li>
<li>But concerns remain about expense control and longevity of ongoing demand recovery</li>
<li>Great Q2 results, yes, but we think investors want more clarity about H2 demand</li>
</ul>


Strong Q2 results out Tuesday morning beat consensus Revenue and core EPS estimates
But concerns remain about expense control and longevity of ongoing demand recovery
Great Q2 results, yes, but we think investors want more clarity about H2 demand


Trip.com Q223 Quick Take: Revenue, EPS > Consensus | Guidance? Not Much | Still No Upside Surprises

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

Outbound tourism activity in September declined vs August, in some cases down to levels seen in Q2. Domestic activity also disappointed, and we see...

Tracking Traffic

Quick Take on 'Golden Week' Headline Tourism Traffic: Limited Improvement, & Shy of Expectations

Preliminary tourism activity data from the long Golden Week holiday period appear to show a frustratingly sluggish recovery in Chinese travel demand.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | 'Pent-Up' Travel Demand -- Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

What is "pent-up" demand, and nine months into a recovery in travel activity, does China still have any? We review outbound activity, domestic...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q223 Quick Take: Revenue, EPS > Consensus | Guidance? Not Much | Still No Upside Surprises

Trip.com reported solid Q223 results on Tuesday morning. We have concerns about expense control, and we also sense that investors want clear...

Tracking Traffic

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