Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The pace of Trip.com's Net Revenue growth picked up in Q425, to just under 21% Y/Y</li>
<li>But OpInc and Adjusted EBITDA margins continued to decline in the period</li>
<li>Poor cost control, weight of ongoing investigation prompt us to AVOID the shares</li>
</ul>


The pace of Trip.com's Net Revenue growth picked up in Q425, to just under 21% Y/Y
But OpInc and Adjusted EBITDA margins continued to decline in the period
Poor cost control, weight of ongoing investigation prompt us to AVOID the shares


Trip.com Q425 Results | Strong Top-Line Growth, But Margin Compression Continues | AVOID

<ul>
<li>Growth rates of outbound and domestic air travel slowed again in September</li>
<li>Initial read on Golden Week demand: weak activity growth, weaker spending</li>
<li>In our view, it's increasingly difficult to retain an upbeat view of the sector</li>
</ul>


Growth rates of outbound and domestic air travel slowed again in September
Initial read on Golden Week demand: weak activity growth, weaker spending
In our view, it's increasingly difficult to retain an upbeat view of the sector


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Pace of Growth Slowed, Again | Golden Week? | October 2025

<ul>
<li>Weak travel growth getting weaker, now years out from steepest part of recovery</li>
<li>Most airlines &amp; hotel chains have benefitted little from improved travel demand</li>
<li>In recent months, appears momentum shifting back to travel intermediaries </li>
</ul>


Weak travel growth getting weaker, now years out from steepest part of recovery
Most airlines &amp; hotel chains have benefitted little from improved travel demand
In recent months, appears momentum shifting back to travel intermediaries 


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Momentum Shifts From Airlines to TCOM | September 2025

<ul>
<li>Led by Accommodation activity, Q225 net revenue growth was a solid +16% Y/Y </li>
<li>Some progress on OpEx control, but core margins declined <em>again</em> in Q225</li>
<li>Even with big buyback, is it worth US$75/ADS? We think fair value near US$60</li>
</ul>


Led by Accommodation activity, Q225 net revenue growth was a solid +16% Y/Y 
Some progress on OpEx control, but core margins declined again in Q225
Even with big buyback, is it worth US$75/ADS? We think fair value near US$60


Trip.com Q225 Results | Big Buyback a Surprise | But Margins Still Under Pressure | Fair Value US$60

<ul>
<li>China's Ministry of Tourism &amp; Culture reported mediocre holiday travel &amp; spending activity</li>
<li>Separately, Xinhua also reported underwhelming numbers from Dragon Boat Festival period</li>
<li>Weak travel numbers may indicate Chinese consumers remain uneasy about near-term outlook</li>
</ul>


China's Ministry of Tourism &amp; Culture reported mediocre holiday travel &amp; spending activity
Separately, Xinhua also reported underwhelming numbers from Dragon Boat Festival period
Weak travel numbers may indicate Chinese consumers remain uneasy about near-term outlook


Weak Spending over China's Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Period Suggests Tourists Remain Frugal

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

Trip.com Q425 Results | Strong Top-Line Growth, But Margin Compression Continues | AVOID

Top-line growth accelerated in Q425, but margin compression persisted. Management's poor cost control is frustrating, and an ongoing investigation...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Pace of Growth Slowed, Again | Golden Week? | October 2025

Chinese travel activity in September slowed, and a first look at Golden Week activity also suggests weak growth in travel and spending. We see few...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Momentum Shifts From Airlines to TCOM | September 2025

Chinese air travel growth continues to slow. Chinese airlines have been unable to lift margins as aircraft utilization improves, and we no longer...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q225 Results | Big Buyback a Surprise | But Margins Still Under Pressure | Fair Value US$60

Trip.com announced a big share buyback last week, but its Q225 core results were unimpressive. Given modest growth expectations, we put fair value...

Tracking Traffic

Weak Spending over China's Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Period Suggests Tourists Remain Frugal

Headline travel activity numbers from China's recent Dragon Boat Festival suggest modest demand growth and a Chinese consumer keeping a tight grip...

Tracking Traffic

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