Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><p>This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas (more explicitly) and explain some semiconductor jargon. This is a meta piece of content.</p></li><li>First and foremost, I’ll start with performance. SMH returned 14% this quarter, among the best quarters in history for the semiconductor universe (again).</li><li>This quarter's leader was AOSL, who is rumored to have won a socket at Nvidia.</li></ul>

This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas (more explicitly) and explain some semiconductor jargon. This is a meta piece of content.First and foremost, I’ll start with performance. SMH returned 14% this quarter, among the best quarters in history for the semiconductor universe (again).This quarter's leader was AOSL, who is rumored to have won a socket at Nvidia.

Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin could find the bottom and strongly rebounded in 1Q23. We believe BTC mining companies could be sellers of crypto assets on strong bounce and limit room for further upside. </li>
<li>Our bear case scenario assumes an average BTC price of $25K in 2023 with an opportunity to reach as high as $30K. Leading crypto miners began to offload Bitcoin holdings. </li>
<li>Investors should be more selective on the crypto miner names during a prolonged bear market. Our top picks include Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain, and Cipher Mining. </li>
</ul>


Bitcoin could find the bottom and strongly rebounded in 1Q23. We believe BTC mining companies could be sellers of crypto assets on strong bounce and limit room for further upside. 
Our bear case scenario assumes an average BTC price of $25K in 2023 with an opportunity to reach as high as $30K. Leading crypto miners began to offload Bitcoin holdings. 
Investors should be more selective on the crypto miner names during a prolonged bear market. Our top picks include Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain, and Cipher Mining. 


Crypto Mining Industry Series: Strong Start In 2023. Bitcoin Is Up ~40% YTD

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin mining companies continue to suffer from crypto winter’s market conditions: substantial drop in mining rig prices, low cryptocurrency prices, heightened volatility, and unprofitable mining operations.</li>
<li>We are looking for bright spots and believe Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Blockchain will survive the crypto winter with the opportunity to win market share in the coming years.</li>
<li>Our analysis suggests all-in-breakeven costs (miner costs+power costs+OpEx) of the most efficient BTC mining companies to mine a BTC close to the current BTC price of ~$20,000. </li>
</ul>


Bitcoin mining companies continue to suffer from crypto winter’s market conditions: substantial drop in mining rig prices, low cryptocurrency prices, heightened volatility, and unprofitable mining operations.
We are looking for bright spots and believe Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Blockchain will survive the crypto winter with the opportunity to win market share in the coming years.
Our analysis suggests all-in-breakeven costs (miner costs+power costs+OpEx) of the most efficient BTC mining companies to mine a BTC close to the current BTC price of ~$20,000. 


Crypto Mining Industry Series: Looking For Bright Spots As The Darkest Months Ahead

<ul>
<li>During the last three months, the crypto market has lost ~$2 trillion in value and slightly recovered in July when BTC bulls could hold a $20K price level. </li>
<li>Bitcoin mining economics changed dramatically, and depressed BTC prices forced inefficient miners out of the market. Some BTC mining companies started to sell Bitcoins to cover OpEx and CapEx. </li>
<li>We remain bullish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US)</a> and upgrade <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/riot-blockchain-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35453:1" rel="noopener">Riot Blockchain (RIOT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipher-mining" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33309:1" rel="noopener">Cipher Mining (CIFR US)</a>  to Overweight on favorable risk-reward post-recent sell-off.</li>
</ul>


During the last three months, the crypto market has lost ~$2 trillion in value and slightly recovered in July when BTC bulls could hold a $20K price level. 
Bitcoin mining economics changed dramatically, and depressed BTC prices forced inefficient miners out of the market. Some BTC mining companies started to sell Bitcoins to cover OpEx and CapEx. 
We remain bullish on Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) and upgrade Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) and Cipher Mining (CIFR US)  to Overweight on favorable risk-reward post-recent sell-off.


Crypto Mining Industry Series: Time To Focus On Efficient Crypto Miners

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin mining is booming in the United States and we expect ~2.5 GW of new cumulative mining capacity will be added by crypto mining companies in the U.S. this year. </li>
<li>Today, Foundry USA is the biggest mining pool globally, and North America has been the clear beneficiary of China’s cryptocurrency ban in 2021.</li>
<li>We see a huge untapped opportunity for Bitcoin mining companies. We initiate Marathon Digital Holdings with Overweight and Cipher Mining and Riot Blockchain with Neutral.  </li>
</ul>


Bitcoin mining is booming in the United States and we expect ~2.5 GW of new cumulative mining capacity will be added by crypto mining companies in the U.S. this year. 
Today, Foundry USA is the biggest mining pool globally, and North America has been the clear beneficiary of China’s cryptocurrency ban in 2021.
We see a huge untapped opportunity for Bitcoin mining companies. We initiate Marathon Digital Holdings with Overweight and Cipher Mining and Riot Blockchain with Neutral.  


Crypto Mining Industry Series: Let The Crypto Miners Rush Begin

Canada

Hut 8 Mining Corp. operates as a cryptocurrency mining company. The Company offers blockchain infrastructure and technology solutions. Hut 8 Mining serves customers in North America.

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Hut 8 Mining (HUT US)

Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review

Here's everything that happened this quarter, and some thoughts and ideas. This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas...

Fabricated Knowledge

Crypto Mining Industry Series: Strong Start In 2023. Bitcoin Is Up ~40% YTD

We believe the crypto contagion is finally over, and a rally in Bitcoin may restore investor confidence after 12 months of a bear market

Andrei Zakharov

Crypto Mining Industry Series: Looking For Bright Spots As The Darkest Months Ahead

Crypto mining industry suffers from low BTC prices, high energy costs, and increased mining difficulty, putting some BTC miners on the verge of the...

Andrei Zakharov

Crypto Mining Industry Series: Time To Focus On Efficient Crypto Miners

We remain bullish on Marathon Digital Holdings and upgrade Riot Blockchain and Cipher Mining to Overweight on favorable risk-reward post-recent...

Andrei Zakharov

Crypto Mining Industry Series: Let The Crypto Miners Rush Begin

We see a huge untapped opportunity for Bitcoin mining companies. We initiate Marathon Digital Holdings with Overweight and Cipher Mining and Riot...

Andrei Zakharov

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