Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Global throughput strengthened in 2017, with Drewry Maritime Research revising upwards the year-on-year growth from 5.5% to 6.0%. While the pace is likely to moderate, Drewry expects a flow of 775m teu in 2018, representing 4.3% over the projected volume in 2017. Modest port capacity addition is expected to lift utilisation above 70% by 2021.</li><li>The valuation premium of the Drewry Port Index to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was about 15%-20% for a substantial period in 2017, continuing to trade in the range, while growth investors re-examine the earnings momentum of ports.</li><li>Our high conviction long pick is GLPR on a resurgent Russian economy that benefits the largest port operator directly. On the flip side, our high-conviction short is Santos Brasil. Notwithstanding the macroeconomic upturn, the intense port competition and the piling pressure to expand amid overcapacity are likely to strain Santos Brasil’s balance sheet in FY18e.</li></ul>

Global throughput strengthened in 2017, with Drewry Maritime Research revising upwards the year-on-year growth from 5.5% to 6.0%. While the pace is likely to moderate, Drewry expects a flow of 775m teu in 2018, representing 4.3% over the projected volume in 2017. Modest port capacity addition is expected to lift utilisation above 70% by 2021.The valuation premium of the Drewry Port Index to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was about 15%-20% for a substantial period in 2017, continuing to trade in the range, while growth investors re-examine the earnings momentum of ports.Our high conviction long pick is GLPR on a resurgent Russian economy that benefits the largest port operator directly. On the flip side, our high-conviction short is Santos Brasil. Notwithstanding the macroeconomic upturn, the intense port competition and the piling pressure to expand amid overcapacity are likely to strain Santos Brasil’s balance sheet in FY18e.

Ports Outlook - Modest Earnings Growth in 2018

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18689" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18689:1">Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)</a>'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

Infrastructure Analyst - Ports & Terminals, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Victor Wai, CFA

Infrastructure Analyst - Ports & Terminals

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

In line with expectations: Hutchison Port Holdings Trust delivered a set of weak results that reflected our thesis for an Unattractive call on the Singapore-listed Trust. PATMI plunged 38.4%y/y to HKD 237.8m (USD 30.5m) on the back of a slight revenue weakness of 3.4% y/y, from HKD 2.96bn (USD 379m) to HKD2.86bn (USD 367m) in 4Q17. We could not find any source of optimism that postulates FY18e to be a turnaround year for the company.NDRC ruling will not crush HPHT: On 1 February 2018, the…

In line with expectations: Hutchison Port Holdings Trust delivered a set of weak results that reflected our thesis for an Unattractive call on the Singapore-listed Trust. PATMI plunged 38.4%y/y to HKD 237.8m (USD 30.5m) on the back of a slight revenue weakness of 3.4% y/y, from HKD 2.96bn (USD 379m) to HKD2.86bn (USD 367m) in 4Q17. We could not find any source of optimism that postulates FY18e to be a turnaround year for the company.NDRC ruling will not crush HPHT: On 1 February 2018, the…

HPH Trust - Upbeat Facade Masks Uncertainties

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

This is something of a collaborative piece between MCorp Review and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1646" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1646">Victor Wai, CFA</a>, a Drewry ports specialist who flew into Bangkok to discuss some issues regarding the Kra Canal, which we attack from different angles ranging from politics, historical parallels, to economic viability. While we can not agree on all aspects yet, there are certain "near consensus" or "quasi-conclusions" on some issues yo. Well, heck, let's just dig in. Our Dark Side is taking over again, and we can't help feel…

This is something of a collaborative piece between MCorp Review and Victor Wai, CFA, a Drewry ports specialist who flew into Bangkok to discuss some issues regarding the Kra Canal, which we attack from different angles ranging from politics, historical parallels, to economic viability. While we can not agree on all aspects yet, there are certain "near consensus" or "quasi-conclusions" on some issues yo. Well, heck, let's just dig in. Our Dark Side is taking over again, and we can't help feel…

South Series (Part 4): Kra Canal, A Chinese Suez Smacked Two Days North of Singapore?!

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT SP Equity) kisses the support level of $0.40 apiece, with investors finding some feline-cuteness for the once-loved port infrastructure play. Amid a resurgent trade recovery post-Global Financial Crisis, Li Ka-Shing spun off the Pearl River Delta assets and listed them as a Trust for $1.01, promising attractive dividends for shareholders who take a long-term view on ports.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/040/107/original/HPHT_4.JPG?1512883791" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="40107"></figure><div class="content-caption">Throwback to the busy days... Source: JOC</div>Despite a series of misses in its earnings -…

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT SP Equity) kisses the support level of $0.40 apiece, with investors finding some feline-cuteness for the once-loved port infrastructure play. Amid a resurgent trade recovery post-Global Financial Crisis, Li Ka-Shing spun off the Pearl River Delta assets and listed them as a Trust for $1.01, promising attractive dividends for shareholders who take a long-term view on ports.Throwback to the busy days... Source: JOCDespite a series of misses in its earnings -…

Hutchison Port Trust - Dead Cat Bounce No.10?

Singapore

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is a port investor, developer and operator. The Company is also involved in transportation related services and logistics operations, including container storage and repair, container tracking, general and bulk cargo tranfer, warehousing, marine shuttle services and other related services.

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Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT SP)

Ports Outlook - Modest Earnings Growth in 2018

Global throughput strengthened in 2017, with Drewry Maritime Research revising upwards the year-on-year growth from 5.5% to 6.0%. While the pace...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

HPH Trust - Upbeat Facade Masks Uncertainties

In line with expectations: Hutchison Port Holdings Trust delivered a set of weak results that reflected our thesis for an Unattractive call on the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

South Series (Part 4): Kra Canal, A Chinese Suez Smacked Two Days North of Singapore?!

This is something of a collaborative piece between MCorp Review and Victor Wai, CFA, a Drewry ports specialist who flew into Bangkok to discuss...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Hutchison Port Trust - Dead Cat Bounce No.10?

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT SP Equity) kisses the support level of $0.40 apiece, with investors finding some feline-cuteness for the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ports Outlook - Modest Earnings Growth in 2018

Global throughput strengthened in 2017, with Drewry Maritime Research revising upwards the year-on-year growth from 5.5% to 6.0%. While the pace...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight...

Daniel Hellberg

HPH Trust - Upbeat Facade Masks Uncertainties

In line with expectations: Hutchison Port Holdings Trust delivered a set of weak results that reflected our thesis for an Unattractive call on the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

South Series (Part 4): Kra Canal, A Chinese Suez Smacked Two Days North of Singapore?!

This is something of a collaborative piece between MCorp Review and Victor Wai, CFA, a Drewry ports specialist who flew into Bangkok to discuss...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Hutchison Port Trust - Dead Cat Bounce No.10?

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT SP Equity) kisses the support level of $0.40 apiece, with investors finding some feline-cuteness for the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research