HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The assassination of Trump in July has greatly increased the probability of his election as president this year. However, a Trump presidency is not necessarily good for healthcare industry.</li>
<li>Trump's reform in the field of healthcare has two major propositions - One is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain. The other is to reduce drug prices.</li>
<li>From a US national security perspective, China's APIs/CXO would be the segments with the highest sanction risk. China Biotech may also face some headwinds. The risk of "decoupling" further increases.</li>
</ul>


The assassination of Trump in July has greatly increased the probability of his election as president this year. However, a Trump presidency is not necessarily good for healthcare industry.
Trump's reform in the field of healthcare has two major propositions - One is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain. The other is to reduce drug prices.
From a US national security perspective, China's APIs/CXO would be the segments with the highest sanction risk. China Biotech may also face some headwinds. The risk of "decoupling" further increases.


What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

<ul>
<li>China healthcare can be mainly divided into the following segments: pharmaceuticals, medical devices, medical services, To B Supply Chain. Investment logic and business characteristics in these fields are completely different.</li>
<li>“High standardization+low dependence on doctors” help pharmaceuticals gain a more favorable commercial value than medical devices in distribution process. Profit margin/cross-regional expansion capability of medical services have always been questioned.</li>
<li>The business characteristics of “To B supply chain” indicate strong cyclical characteristics due to supply rigidity and demand fluctuations, which are easily affected by changes in demand trends.</li>
</ul>


China healthcare can be mainly divided into the following segments: pharmaceuticals, medical devices, medical services, To B Supply Chain. Investment logic and business characteristics in these fields are completely different.
“High standardization+low dependence on doctors” help pharmaceuticals gain a more favorable commercial value than medical devices in distribution process. Profit margin/cross-regional expansion capability of medical services have always been questioned.
The business characteristics of “To B supply chain” indicate strong cyclical characteristics due to supply rigidity and demand fluctuations, which are easily affected by changes in demand trends.


The “Game Rule” of China Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Vs Medical Devices Vs Medical Services

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Kelun-Biotech: Promising Ph2 results of SKB264+A167 in 1L NSCLC.</li><li>SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189 and 9.7 months mPFS of tislelizumab+chemo in RATIONALE304.</li><li>SKB264’s Ph3 dose of Q2W could deliver even better efficacy, in our view. SKB264+A167 also showed strong potential in PD-L1 negative NSCLC. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Kelun-Biotech: Promising Ph2 results of SKB264+A167 in 1L NSCLC.SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189 and 9.7 months mPFS of tislelizumab+chemo in RATIONALE304.SKB264’s Ph3 dose of Q2W could deliver even better efficacy, in our view. SKB264+A167 also showed strong potential in PD-L1 negative NSCLC. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Healthcare - Chinese Biopharma Releasing Promising Data at ASCO

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

<ul>
<li>It is the time to reassess the commercialization performance and the outlook of China biotech companies, including BeiGene, Innovent, Henlus, Zai Lab, Hutchmed, Junshi, RemeGen, Innocare, Akeso. </li>
<li>We summarized the data of these biotech companies’ product revenue and profit performance to judge whether their commercialization capability is sufficient to afford production, sales teams and long-term R&amp;D activities. </li>
<li>Most China Biotech cannot be said to achieve "commercialization success", but they have showed some difference.We hope investors could have a better understanding about China biotech and make better decisions. </li>
</ul>


It is the time to reassess the commercialization performance and the outlook of China biotech companies, including BeiGene, Innovent, Henlus, Zai Lab, Hutchmed, Junshi, RemeGen, Innocare, Akeso. 
We summarized the data of these biotech companies’ product revenue and profit performance to judge whether their commercialization capability is sufficient to afford production, sales teams and long-term R&amp;D activities. 
Most China Biotech cannot be said to achieve "commercialization success", but they have showed some difference.We hope investors could have a better understanding about China biotech and make better decisions. 


China Biotech – The Commercialization Performance and The Outlook

Hong Kong

Hutchison Whampoa is an investment holding company with diverse global operations in ports and related services, property and hotels, retail, infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications. It operates port and container terminals, develops real estate, and provides mobile telecommunications services. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and traces its roots back to 1862.

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Hutchison Whampoa (13 HK)

What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

Trump successfully elected as the US President. His reform in healthcare is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The “Game Rule” of China Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Vs Medical Devices Vs Medical Services

China healthcare has distinct segments with different investment logic/characteristics.The pecking order is drugs>medical device>medical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Healthcare - Chinese Biopharma Releasing Promising Data at ASCO

SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189

CMB International

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

China Biotech – The Commercialization Performance and The Outlook

In the context of the fading dividend of medical system reform and the lack of next big variety, the previous wave of innovative drug boom is hard...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

Trump successfully elected as the US President. His reform in healthcare is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The “Game Rule” of China Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Vs Medical Devices Vs Medical Services

​China healthcare has distinct segments with different investment logic/characteristics.The pecking order is drugs>medical device>medical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Healthcare - Chinese Biopharma Releasing Promising Data at ASCO

SKB264 (Q3W)+A167 (PD-L1)’s 15.4 months of mPFS in 1L NSCLC was much better than the SoC – 9.0 months mPFS of Keytruda+chemo in KEYNOTE189

CMB International

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

China Biotech – The Commercialization Performance and The Outlook

In the context of the fading dividend of medical system reform and the lack of next big variety, the previous wave of innovative drug boom is hard...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China healthcare has distinct segments with different investment logic/characteristics.The pecking order is drugs>medical device>medical...