HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The assassination of Trump in July has greatly increased the probability of his election as president this year. However, a Trump presidency is not necessarily good for healthcare industry.</li>
<li>Trump's reform in the field of healthcare has two major propositions - One is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain. The other is to reduce drug prices.</li>
<li>From a US national security perspective, China's APIs/CXO would be the segments with the highest sanction risk. China Biotech may also face some headwinds. The risk of "decoupling" further increases.</li>
</ul>


The assassination of Trump in July has greatly increased the probability of his election as president this year. However, a Trump presidency is not necessarily good for healthcare industry.
Trump's reform in the field of healthcare has two major propositions - One is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain. The other is to reduce drug prices.
From a US national security perspective, China's APIs/CXO would be the segments with the highest sanction risk. China Biotech may also face some headwinds. The risk of "decoupling" further increases.


What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the Hang Seng family of indices were announced post market close on 21 August - final capping will use closing prices from the close on 1 September.</li>
<li>There are 2 adds for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, no constituent changes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, 1 change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, 5 changes for the HSIII, and 1 change for the HSBIO.</li>
<li>There are 61 adds and 15 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index and that should lead to 54 additions to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 7 September.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Hang Seng family of indices were announced post market close on 21 August - final capping will use closing prices from the close on 1 September.
There are 2 adds for the HSI, no constituent changes HSCEI, 1 change for the HSTECH, 5 changes for the HSIII, and 1 change for the HSBIO.
There are 61 adds and 15 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index and that should lead to 54 additions to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 7 September.


Hang Seng Indexes: US$3.2bn of Flows Post Capping + Stock Connect Changes (Sep 2026)

<ul>
<li>A document titled "<em>Soliciting Opinions on the Implementation Plan for Supporting the Development of Innovative Drugs throughout the Whole Chain</em>" attracted widespread attention, which is significantly different from past policies. </li>
<li>Restrictions on payment end and deteriorating investment and financing situations will be improved, marking a new starting point for China’s innovative drug business. We have reasons to start being optimistic.</li>
<li>If approved and implemented, it would be a significant reversal of the previous expectation and investment logic of innovative drugs. So, investors should not overlook the importance of this document.</li>
</ul>


A document titled "Soliciting Opinions on the Implementation Plan for Supporting the Development of Innovative Drugs throughout the Whole Chain" attracted widespread attention, which is significantly different from past policies. 
Restrictions on payment end and deteriorating investment and financing situations will be improved, marking a new starting point for China’s innovative drug business. We have reasons to start being optimistic.
If approved and implemented, it would be a significant reversal of the previous expectation and investment logic of innovative drugs. So, investors should not overlook the importance of this document.


Important New Policy for China’s Innovative Drugs – The Game Rule Is About to Change Radically

<ul>
<li>The Statement of Protocol signed between PCAOB and CSRC/MOF is good for China concept stocks in the short term, but it doesn’t mean the risk of delisting is completely eliminated.</li>
<li>From the statements of the two sides, there are still some differences. What the US side emphasizes is "full authority", but China requires "principle of reciprocity" of regulatory cooperation.</li>
<li>It’s difficult to reach final agreement.The trend of China concept stocks delisting from US and relisting on HKEX/A-share would not change. Investors are advised to prepare for Black Swan event.</li>
</ul>


The Statement of Protocol signed between PCAOB and CSRC/MOF is good for China concept stocks in the short term, but it doesn’t mean the risk of delisting is completely eliminated.
From the statements of the two sides, there are still some differences. What the US side emphasizes is "full authority", but China requires "principle of reciprocity" of regulatory cooperation.
It’s difficult to reach final agreement.The trend of China concept stocks delisting from US and relisting on HKEX/A-share would not change. Investors are advised to prepare for Black Swan event.


PCAOB and CSRC‘s Agreement on Audit Terms Could Fail - The Real Test of China ADRs Lies Ahead

<ul>
<li>If we take a close look at the HFCAA, there are three points that are really hard for China to accept, which could be an irreconcilable contradiction.</li>
<li>There could be a trend of delisting from the US market and then relisting on HKEX or A-share market in the future. Investors could suffer losses when companies come back.</li>
<li>Overall, the regulatory risk and delisting risk are two real unknowns. Therefore, investors should pay attention to the relevant companies and get prepared in advance.</li>
</ul>


If we take a close look at the HFCAA, there are three points that are really hard for China to accept, which could be an irreconcilable contradiction.
There could be a trend of delisting from the US market and then relisting on HKEX or A-share market in the future. Investors could suffer losses when companies come back.
Overall, the regulatory risk and delisting risk are two real unknowns. Therefore, investors should pay attention to the relevant companies and get prepared in advance.


The Impact of HFCAA on China ADR (China Healthcare Companies)

Hong Kong

HUTCHMED is an innovative, commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, manufacturing, and commercializing targeted therapies and immunotherapies for cancer and immunological diseases. The company has several novel oncology products marketed in China, with one also approved in the US, Europe, and Japan. HUTCHMED was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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HUTCHMED (HCM US)

What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

Trump successfully elected as the US President. His reform in healthcare is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng Indexes: US$3.2bn of Flows Post Capping + Stock Connect Changes (Sep 2026)

The Sep rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII indices will use 1 Sep closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four indices...

Brian Freitas

Important New Policy for China’s Innovative Drugs – The Game Rule Is About to Change Radically

A new document about China's innovative drugs would change the game rule/outlook radically. We have reasons to start being optimistic that the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

PCAOB and CSRC‘s Agreement on Audit Terms Could Fail - The Real Test of China ADRs Lies Ahead

China ADRs are only a part of Sino-US game, which shouldn't be looked at alone. It’s hard to reach final agreement. The trend of relisting on HKEX...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The Impact of HFCAA on China ADR (China Healthcare Companies)

We analyzed the points in HFCAA that are difficult for China to accept.Such irreconcilable contradiction could lead to a trend of delisting from...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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