Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 constituent changes for the STAR Chip Index at the March rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 6.5bn (US$934m). Passives need to trade between 0.3-1x ADV in the forecast changes.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month, while both sets of changes have underperformed the STAR Chip Index.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 constituent changes for the STAR Chip Index at the March rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 6.5bn (US$934m). Passives need to trade between 0.3-1x ADV in the forecast changes.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month, while both sets of changes have underperformed the STAR Chip Index.


STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes for March

Moore Threads Technology / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, we forecast 4 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and 10 constituent changes for the STAR100 Index in March.</li>
<li>We estimate turnover of 9.1% for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and 9.6% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip net trade is CNY 28.55bn (US$4.1bn).</li>
<li>There has been big unwinding of ETF holdings (likely the National Team at work) recently and that reduces the flow and impact for the index changes.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, we forecast 4 constituent changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 10 constituent changes for the STAR100 Index in March.
We estimate turnover of 9.1% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9.6% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip net trade is CNY 28.55bn (US$4.1bn).
There has been big unwinding of ETF holdings (likely the National Team at work) recently and that reduces the flow and impact for the index changes.


STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Huge Outperformance as National Team Redeems ETF Holdings

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-zhipu-huazhang-technology-co-ltd-knowledge-atlas-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44500:1" rel="noopener">Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK)</a>'s debut is lukewarm, and currently trading on 37.8x P/S for FY27, it is close to fairly valued. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a>'s B2C focus and its 3-year revenue CAGR of 126.8% (vs. 63.9%) warrants FY27 P/S of 55.1x, up from 48.8x as its peer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moore-threads-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40221:1" rel="noopener">Moore Threads (688795 CH)</a> rallied. </li>
<li>Our fair value of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a> equals a 45% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-zhipu-huazhang-technology-co-ltd-knowledge-atlas-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44500:1" rel="noopener">Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK)</a>, justified by its above-sector momentum and "winner-take-all" characteristics.</li>
</ul>



Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK)'s debut is lukewarm, and currently trading on 37.8x P/S for FY27, it is close to fairly valued. 

MiniMax (100 HK)'s B2C focus and its 3-year revenue CAGR of 126.8% (vs. 63.9%) warrants FY27 P/S of 55.1x, up from 48.8x as its peer Moore Threads (688795 CH) rallied. 
Our fair value of MiniMax (100 HK) equals a 45% premium to Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK), justified by its above-sector momentum and "winner-take-all" characteristics.


Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK) & MiniMax Group (100 HK): Comparison, Debuts and Implications

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 100 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on PING AN INSURANCE, CITIC SECURITIES, SHANDONG GOLD MINING, POLY DEVELOPMENTS AND, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, Longi Green, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, SERES.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 100 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on PING AN INSURANCE, CITIC SECURITIES, SHANDONG GOLD MINING, POLY DEVELOPMENTS AND, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, Longi Green, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, SERES.


CSI 100 Index Earning Revision (Dec): PING AN INSURANCE, CITIC SECURITIES, SHANDONG GOLD MINING

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a> is a viable AI foundation model company, with highly ranked product suites and increasingly more adoption by customers around the world. </li>
<li>The fair value is at HK$216 per share, reflecting its strong potential to capture the AI growth, solid market position and the scarcity value on the Hong Kong market.</li>
<li>At fair FY27F P/S of 48.8x, this equals 18% discount to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moore-threads-intelligent-technology-beijing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40221:1" rel="noopener">Moore Threads Intelligent (688795 CH)</a> and 35% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-biren-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39934:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Biren Technology (6082 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



MiniMax (100 HK) is a viable AI foundation model company, with highly ranked product suites and increasingly more adoption by customers around the world. 
The fair value is at HK$216 per share, reflecting its strong potential to capture the AI growth, solid market position and the scarcity value on the Hong Kong market.
At fair FY27F P/S of 48.8x, this equals 18% discount to the Moore Threads Intelligent (688795 CH) and 35% premium to Shanghai Biren Technology (6082 HK). 


MiniMax Group (100 HK) IPO: Estimate of Fair Value

China

Hygon Information Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes computer components. The Company produces high end processors, deep computing processors, accelerators, calculator chips, and other related products. Hygon Information Technology markets its products worldwide.

Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH)

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes for March

There could be 2 changes for the index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$934m. Passives need to...

Brian Freitas

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Huge Outperformance as National Team Redeems ETF Holdings

4 changes forecast for the STAR50 and 10 for the STAR100 resulting in a net round-trip trade of US$4.1bn. The National Team has been redeeming...

Brian Freitas

Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK) & MiniMax Group (100 HK): Comparison, Debuts and Implications

Debut of Knowledge Atlas is lukewarm, trading close to fair value at 37.8x P/S for FY27, while MiniMax's B2C focus and strong revenue growth...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CSI 100 Index Earning Revision (Dec): PING AN INSURANCE, CITIC SECURITIES, SHANDONG GOLD MINING

We highlighted EPS revision on PING AN INSURANCE, CITIC SECURITIES, SHANDONG GOLD MINING, POLY DEVELOPMENTS AND, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, Longi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MiniMax Group (100 HK) IPO: Estimate of Fair Value

MiniMax is a promising AI company with strong product suites and growing customer adoption, valued at HK$216 per share due to its potential in the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes for March

There could be 2 changes for the index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$934m. Passives need to...

Brian Freitas

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Huge Outperformance as National Team Redeems ETF Holdings

4 changes forecast for the STAR50 and 10 for the STAR100 resulting in a net round-trip trade of US$4.1bn. The National Team has been redeeming...

Brian Freitas

Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK) & MiniMax Group (100 HK): Comparison, Debuts and Implications

​Debut of Knowledge Atlas is lukewarm, trading close to fair value at 37.8x P/S for FY27, while MiniMax's B2C focus and strong revenue growth...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CSI 100 Index Earning Revision (Dec): PING AN INSURANCE, CITIC SECURITIES, SHANDONG GOLD MINING

We highlighted EPS revision on PING AN INSURANCE, CITIC SECURITIES, SHANDONG GOLD MINING, POLY DEVELOPMENTS AND, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, Longi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MiniMax Group (100 HK) IPO: Estimate of Fair Value

​MiniMax is a promising AI company with strong product suites and growing customer adoption, valued at HK$216 per share due to its potential in the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Debut of Knowledge Atlas is lukewarm, trading close to fair value at 37.8x P/S for FY27, while MiniMax's B2C focus and strong revenue growth...

MiniMax is a promising AI company with strong product suites and growing customer adoption, valued at HK$216 per share due to its potential in the...