IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a>, a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).</li>
<li>The IPO price range is KRW39,500-51,800 per share. The bookbuilding will run from 13 to 19 October, with pricing on 25 October. The shares will be listed in November.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a leading market share, solid premium growth, the highest industry margins, a high solvency ratio and a high dividend payout. </li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS), a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).
The IPO price range is KRW39,500-51,800 per share. The bookbuilding will run from 13 to 19 October, with pricing on 25 October. The shares will be listed in November.
The bull case rests on a leading market share, solid premium growth, the highest industry margins, a high solvency ratio and a high dividend payout. 


Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 48,052 won which is within the IPO price range of 39,500 won to 51,800 won. </li>
<li>Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a negative view of this deal. </li>
<li>We are not impressed with the company's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit in 2023. The valuation range as proposed by the bankers is also not attractive. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 48,052 won which is within the IPO price range of 39,500 won to 51,800 won. 
Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a negative view of this deal. 
We are not impressed with the company's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit in 2023. The valuation range as proposed by the bankers is also not attractive. 


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Valuation Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discuss how to use the OWL ESG Analytics (available on Smartkarma) to narrow down the list of companies that could be the next targets of corporate activism in Korea. </li>
<li>We go through in detail, step-by-step process of how to narrow down the list of companies, using the OWL ESG Analytics. </li>
<li>Corporate activism has been one of the most important, market moving factors moving the Korean stock market this year.</li>
</ul>


We discuss how to use the OWL ESG Analytics (available on Smartkarma) to narrow down the list of companies that could be the next targets of corporate activism in Korea. 
We go through in detail, step-by-step process of how to narrow down the list of companies, using the OWL ESG Analytics. 
Corporate activism has been one of the most important, market moving factors moving the Korean stock market this year.


Using Smartkarma/OWL ESG Analytics to Narrow Down List of Corporate Activism Targets in Korea

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss a list of 60 stocks in Korea where NPS recently added or reduced 1% or more stake (27 adds and 33 reduce). </li>
<li>Among the stocks NPS increased its stake, many of them are clear beneficiaries of the end of zero COVID policies in China including Hotel Shilla, Amorepacific Corp, and GKL. </li>
<li>Among the top market cap stocks where the NPS decreased its stake by 1% or more, they include Lg Innotek, Hyundai E&amp;C, Hyundai Mipo, and Posco International. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss a list of 60 stocks in Korea where NPS recently added or reduced 1% or more stake (27 adds and 33 reduce). 
Among the stocks NPS increased its stake, many of them are clear beneficiaries of the end of zero COVID policies in China including Hotel Shilla, Amorepacific Corp, and GKL. 
Among the top market cap stocks where the NPS decreased its stake by 1% or more, they include Lg Innotek, Hyundai E&amp;C, Hyundai Mipo, and Posco International. 


Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The results are pretty much in line with the predictions, except for Hanwha Aerospace which made it to LARGE instead of Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance.</li>
<li>Assuming that ten names, including Hyundai Marine, were traded in a LONG/SHORT basket with equal weight, the yield from August 17 to the last close would have been 4.6%.</li>
<li>I would still approach with an equal-weighted basket trading until this Thursday. This flow trading usually loses its effect rapidly after rebalancing. So, I wouldn't carry it beyond this Thursday.</li>
</ul>


The results are pretty much in line with the predictions, except for Hanwha Aerospace which made it to LARGE instead of Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance.
Assuming that ten names, including Hyundai Marine, were traded in a LONG/SHORT basket with equal weight, the yield from August 17 to the last close would have been 4.6%.
I would still approach with an equal-weighted basket trading until this Thursday. This flow trading usually loses its effect rapidly after rebalancing. So, I wouldn't carry it beyond this Thursday.


KOSPI Size Index Migration: Official Results & Trading Approach Towards Implementation

South Korea

Hyundai Marine & Fire Insurance Co., Ltd. (HDMF) is a property and casualty insurer.  The Company's products include auto, fire, marine, general liability, leisure, travel, pension, and medical insurances.

Hyundai Marine & Fire Insurance Co., Ltd (001450 KS)

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Hyundai Marine & Fire Insurance Co., Ltd (001450 KS)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a leading market share, solid premium growth, the highest industry margins, a high solvency ratio and a high dividend payout.

Arun George

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Valuation Analysis

Seoul Guarantee Insurance's IPO price range is not attractive due to lack of upside, lack of sales growth, and worsening operating profit in 2023.

Douglas Kim

Using Smartkarma/OWL ESG Analytics to Narrow Down List of Corporate Activism Targets in Korea

We discuss how to use the OWL ESG Analytics (available on Smartkarma) to narrow down the list of companies that could be the next targets of...

Douglas Kim

What Is NPS Buying & Selling?

In this insight, we discuss a list of 60 stocks in Korea where NPS recently added or reduced 1% or more stake (27 adds and 33 reduce).

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Index Migration: Official Results & Trading Approach Towards Implementation

This post looks at the official results of the KOSPI Size Index migration in the September rebalancing and discusses the noteworthy flow patterns...

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a leading market share, solid premium growth, the highest industry margins, a high solvency ratio and a high dividend payout.

Arun George

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Valuation Analysis

​Seoul Guarantee Insurance's IPO price range is not attractive due to lack of upside, lack of sales growth, and worsening operating profit in 2023.

Douglas Kim

Using Smartkarma/OWL ESG Analytics to Narrow Down List of Corporate Activism Targets in Korea

We discuss how to use the OWL ESG Analytics (available on Smartkarma) to narrow down the list of companies that could be the next targets of...

Douglas Kim

What Is NPS Buying & Selling?

In this insight, we discuss a list of 60 stocks in Korea where NPS recently added or reduced 1% or more stake (27 adds and 33 reduce).

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Index Migration: Official Results & Trading Approach Towards Implementation

This post looks at the official results of the KOSPI Size Index migration in the September rebalancing and discusses the noteworthy flow patterns...

Sanghyun Park

Seoul Guarantee Insurance's IPO price range is not attractive due to lack of upside, lack of sales growth, and worsening operating profit in 2023.