Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024. </li>
<li>Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024. 
Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO. 


<ul>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp (SGIC) is trying for another attempt at an IPO at much lower IPO price range. The IPO price range is from 26,000 won to 31,800 won.</li>
<li>At the high end of the IPO price range, the IPO offering size is 222 billion won. The IPO price range has been lowered by 34% to 39%. </li>
<li>Despite the company's consistent record of generating positive operating profit, its lack of sales growth and declining operating margins in 2024 remain key concerns.</li>
</ul>


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp (SGIC) is trying for another attempt at an IPO at much lower IPO price range. The IPO price range is from 26,000 won to 31,800 won.
At the high end of the IPO price range, the IPO offering size is 222 billion won. The IPO price range has been lowered by 34% to 39%. 
Despite the company's consistent record of generating positive operating profit, its lack of sales growth and declining operating margins in 2024 remain key concerns.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Preview (Significantly Lower IPO Price Range)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaopay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakaopay (377300 KS)</a> today.</li>
<li>Alipay (i.e. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>) had earlier sold some of its stake in Jun 2022 and Mar 2024. It still has over US$1bn worth of shares left to sell.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Kakaopay (377300 KS) today.
Alipay (i.e. Alibaba Group (9988 HK)) had earlier sold some of its stake in Jun 2022 and Mar 2024. It still has over US$1bn worth of shares left to sell.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kakao Pay Lockup Expiry - US$1bn Overhang from Alipay

<ul>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) stated today that it will cancel its IPO mainly due to low demand.</li>
<li>Despite the company's emphasis on high dividends and high ROA of 5.8% in 2022 (5x average ROA of the domestic non-life insurance companies), many institutional investors emphasized on the negatives.</li>
<li>The major negatives include high interest rates, lack of growth potential, concerns about additional shares sale overhang, and unattractive valuations. </li>
</ul>


Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) stated today that it will cancel its IPO mainly due to low demand.
Despite the company's emphasis on high dividends and high ROA of 5.8% in 2022 (5x average ROA of the domestic non-life insurance companies), many institutional investors emphasized on the negatives.
The major negatives include high interest rates, lack of growth potential, concerns about additional shares sale overhang, and unattractive valuations. 


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO - Cancelled

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a>, a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seoul-guarantee-insurance-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113213" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seoul-guarantee-insurance-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113296" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive, and we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS), a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).
We previously discussed the IPO in Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case and Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive, and we would pass on the IPO.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights

South Korea

Hyundai Marine & Fire Insurance Co., Ltd. (HDMF) is a property and casualty insurer.  The Company's products include auto, fire, marine, general liability, leisure, travel, pension, and medical insurances.

Hyundai Marine & Fire Insurance Co., Ltd (001450 KS)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hyundai Marine & Fire Insurance Co., Ltd (001450 KS)

SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Preview (Significantly Lower IPO Price Range)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp (SGIC) is trying for another attempt at an IPO at much lower IPO price range. The IPO price range is from 26,000 won...

Douglas Kim

Kakao Pay Lockup Expiry - US$1bn Overhang from Alipay

Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Kakaopay (377300 KS) today. Alipay will once again be free to...

Sumeet Singh

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO - Cancelled

Seoul Guarantee Insurance cancelled IPO due to low demand as institutional investors highlighted negatives including interest rates, lack of...

Douglas Kim

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive, and we...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Preview (Significantly Lower IPO Price Range)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp (SGIC) is trying for another attempt at an IPO at much lower IPO price range. The IPO price range is from 26,000 won...

Douglas Kim

Kakao Pay Lockup Expiry - US$1bn Overhang from Alipay

Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Kakaopay (377300 KS) today. Alipay will once again be free to...

Sumeet Singh

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO - Cancelled

​Seoul Guarantee Insurance cancelled IPO due to low demand as institutional investors highlighted negatives including interest rates, lack of...

Douglas Kim

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive, and we...

Arun George

Seoul Guarantee Insurance cancelled IPO due to low demand as institutional investors highlighted negatives including interest rates, lack of...