Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;</li>
<li>ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;</li>
<li>Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.


BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Intel reportedly producing chips for Apple should also help Ibiden.</li>
<li>Kioxia shakes off Bain selling although there looks to be plenty of upside yet after recent correction.</li>
<li>China tensions simmer further over the w/e positive for defense, negative for tourism related.</li>
</ul>


Intel reportedly producing chips for Apple should also help Ibiden.
Kioxia shakes off Bain selling although there looks to be plenty of upside yet after recent correction.
China tensions simmer further over the w/e positive for defense, negative for tourism related.


Japan Morning Connection: Strong Month-End for Tech Sets Japan up for a Solid Start to Dec

<ul>
<li>Dell bouncing in regular trading after initial weakness after-mkt on numbers the day before.</li>
<li>Semi-Cap names strong led by Teradyne and ASML sets a good tone for Japan SPE overall.</li>
<li>Homebuilders follow through with more gains on rate outlook, watch Shin Etsu on PVC.</li>
</ul>


Dell bouncing in regular trading after initial weakness after-mkt on numbers the day before.
Semi-Cap names strong led by Teradyne and ASML sets a good tone for Japan SPE overall.
Homebuilders follow through with more gains on rate outlook, watch Shin Etsu on PVC.


Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia Weakness Unlikely to Last with Bain's 36m Shs Sale a Blip at Best

<ul>
<li>Sandisk -20% on news that Samsung, and SK Hynix are look to expand NAND capacity.</li>
<li>Meltdown in the face of solid numbers from NVDA points to extreme upside exhaustion.</li>
<li>JP-China spat escalating with the US now weighing in means risk-off bid for rails may fade.</li>
</ul>


Sandisk -20% on news that Samsung, and SK Hynix are look to expand NAND capacity.
Meltdown in the face of solid numbers from NVDA points to extreme upside exhaustion.
JP-China spat escalating with the US now weighing in means risk-off bid for rails may fade.


Japan Morning Connection: Market Meltdown as AI Wobble Turns into Freefall

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

Japan Morning Connection: Strong Month-End for Tech Sets Japan up for a Solid Start to Dec

Sentiment for all things AI back on the rise, boosting glass fiber makers. A rebound for memory and Japanese SPE names. Kioxia may keep rising...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia Weakness Unlikely to Last with Bain's 36m Shs Sale a Blip at Best

Big moves up from semi-cap names bodes well for Japan SPE, with Ibiden as a dip buying candidate. Kioxia may find support trading close to its 50...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Market Meltdown as AI Wobble Turns into Freefall

Japan's outsized AI rally yesterday is expected to reverse sharply with previous big winners Advantest, Ibiden and Disco having a long way to fall....

Andrew Jackson

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