Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichigo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11386:1" rel="noopener">Ichigo Inc (2337 JP)</a> announced a stock buyback to go through the next 6 months. It is ¥3bn, which is not huge, but not nothing.</li>
<li>It seems like a constant refrain, but shareholder structure matters. </li>
<li>Ichigo has a history of doing buybacks (10% of shares out are in treasury), and the historical patterns are interesting when comparing announced intention and actual result. </li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Ichigo Inc (2337 JP) announced a stock buyback to go through the next 6 months. It is ¥3bn, which is not huge, but not nothing.
It seems like a constant refrain, but shareholder structure matters. 
Ichigo has a history of doing buybacks (10% of shares out are in treasury), and the historical patterns are interesting when comparing announced intention and actual result. 


Ichigo (2337) Buyback - History and Shareholder Structure Give an Edge

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Marginal float helped fuel the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (VFS US)</a> bubble. Then it popped. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> Circularity Detour and subsequent unwind created the B-Share construct which means they can maintain the voting control in South Africa without maintaining economic control.</li>
<li>The backlash against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-cm-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36658:1" rel="noopener">Star CM Holdings (6698 HK)</a> calls into question the broader Chinese entertainment industry, and how it strikes a balance between viewership/profitability and ethical boundaries.</li>
</ul>


Marginal float helped fuel the VinFast (VFS US) bubble. Then it popped. 
The Prosus (PRX NA)/Naspers (NPN SJ) Circularity Detour and subsequent unwind created the B-Share construct which means they can maintain the voting control in South Africa without maintaining economic control.
The backlash against Star CM Holdings (6698 HK) calls into question the broader Chinese entertainment industry, and how it strikes a balance between viewership/profitability and ethical boundaries.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Vingroup/VinFast, Prosus/Naspers, STAR CM

<ul>
<li>As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.</li>
<li>This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.</li>
<li>This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.</li>
</ul>


As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.
This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.
This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.


2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

Research from Mita Securities, Mita Securities

Mita Securities

Research from Mita Securities

Mita Securities provides a full scale diversified investment banking and financial services. A comprehensive investment banking department, specializes in rights offerings advisory, take-over bids agents, M&A etc. Including a proprietary trading desk, and wealth management department that offers brokerage, custody, real estate, and full proxy services.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ichigo (2337, the company) announced full-year results for FY2/22. Net profit came in at 6.5bn (+28.8% YoY), within the company's guidance range of 5.0-8.0bn yen</li><li>The company’s FY2/23 guidance is for NP of 6.5-8.5bn yen (+0.4-31.3% YoY). The QUICK consensus NP forecast is 8.8bn yen and our NP forecast is 8.0bn yen</li><li>The company announced share buybacks. The maximum number of shares to be repurchased is 1.17% of the total number of shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares)</li></ul>

Ichigo (2337, the company) announced full-year results for FY2/22. Net profit came in at 6.5bn (+28.8% YoY), within the company's guidance range of 5.0-8.0bn yenThe company’s FY2/23 guidance is for NP of 6.5-8.5bn yen (+0.4-31.3% YoY). The QUICK consensus NP forecast is 8.8bn yen and our NP forecast is 8.0bn yenThe company announced share buybacks. The maximum number of shares to be repurchased is 1.17% of the total number of shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares)

Ichigo (2337): Positive Impression on Successful Sales of Hotel and Commercial Facility

<ul><li>Sold four office properties, with sufficient gains to achieve full-year NP guidance</li><li>Ichigo (2337, the company) announced on January 27, that it had signed a contract to sell four office properties.</li><li>The four office properties have been sold to a newly established bridge fund</li></ul>

Sold four office properties, with sufficient gains to achieve full-year NP guidanceIchigo (2337, the company) announced on January 27, that it had signed a contract to sell four office properties.The four office properties have been sold to a newly established bridge fund

Ichigo (2337): Further Acceleration in Property Sales. On Track to Achieve Full-Year NP Guidance

Japan

Ichigo Inc. is a value-add real estate company. The Company's three key businesses are Value-Add, in which Ichigo acquires and improves mid-sized, prime location real estate, Asset Management including the Ichigo Office REIT (8975), and Clean Energy, in which Ichigo builds and operates solar power plants  on disused land nationwide.

Ichigo Inc (2337 JP)

Ichigo (2337) Buyback - History and Shareholder Structure Give an Edge

Small cap real estate and infra company Ichigo (2337) today announced a buyback. This is the tenth in 6.5yrs. The pattern of past buybacks is...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Vingroup/VinFast, Prosus/Naspers, STAR CM

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

JPX Nikkei 400 rebalance is going the right way in the 6 trading days so far, and it wasn't done on Day1 (which was lacklustre). It may be under...

Travis Lundy

Ichigo (2337): Positive Impression on Successful Sales of Hotel and Commercial Facility

Ichigo (2337, the company) announced full-year results for FY2/22. Net profit came in at 6.5bn (+28.8% YoY), within the company's guidance range of...

Mita Securities

Ichigo (2337): Further Acceleration in Property Sales. On Track to Achieve Full-Year NP Guidance

Sold four office properties, with sufficient gains to achieve full-year NP guidance. Ichigo (2337, the company) announced on January 27, that it...

Mita Securities