Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is likely to weaken, with the support at 1,420/1,405 points and the resistance at 1,440/1,445 points.</li><li>The IMF's global economic forecasts for 2023-24E, as of July 12, 2023, indicate a projected global economic growth rate of 3% for both years, an increase from the previous estimate of 2.8% for 2023E.</li><li>If these officials indicate support for Fed maintaining interest rates at their current levels for an extended period or signal the possibility of rate hikes, it could dampen global stock markets.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is likely to weaken, with the support at 1,420/1,405 points and the resistance at 1,440/1,445 points.The IMF's global economic forecasts for 2023-24E, as of July 12, 2023, indicate a projected global economic growth rate of 3% for both years, an increase from the previous estimate of 2.8% for 2023E.If these officials indicate support for Fed maintaining interest rates at their current levels for an extended period or signal the possibility of rate hikes, it could dampen global stock markets.

Lower Inflation but Unlikely to Be Enough for the Fed to Bring Tightening to an End

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) led consortium at A$3.20 per share. </li>
<li>The key conditions are regulatory and shareholder approval. China SAMR regulatory approval poses a risk, primarily related to timing. Costa anticipates completion in 1Q24.</li>
<li>The headcount test related to the retail vote remains a risk. The risk/reward is unfavourable as the deal break downside (10%+) outweighs the offer’s upside (3.6% at last close).  </li>
</ul>



Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) led consortium at A$3.20 per share. 
The key conditions are regulatory and shareholder approval. China SAMR regulatory approval poses a risk, primarily related to timing. Costa anticipates completion in 1Q24.
The headcount test related to the retail vote remains a risk. The risk/reward is unfavourable as the deal break downside (10%+) outweighs the offer’s upside (3.6% at last close).  


Costa Group (CGC AU): Binding Proposal Comes with Risks

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a>  has disclosed a revised non-binding indicative proposal from Paine Schwartz Partners at A$3.20 per share, 9.6% lower than the previous offer on a like-for-like basis. </li>
<li>The weak CY23 outlook impacted the debt that could be taken on to meet the IRR hurdles of the previous offer. The revised offer is the best and final offer.</li>
<li>The Board faces a dilemma as the offer is light, but some shareholders will want the Board to accept as trading volatility making Costa more suited to the private market.</li>
</ul>



Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)  has disclosed a revised non-binding indicative proposal from Paine Schwartz Partners at A$3.20 per share, 9.6% lower than the previous offer on a like-for-like basis. 
The weak CY23 outlook impacted the debt that could be taken on to meet the IRR hurdles of the previous offer. The revised offer is the best and final offer.
The Board faces a dilemma as the offer is light, but some shareholders will want the Board to accept as trading volatility making Costa more suited to the private market.


Costa Group (CGC AU): Paine Schwartz’s Final Proposal Poses a Dilemma

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with the support at 1,540 points/1,529 points (the gap opened on August 21) and the resistance at 1,550 points (10-day EMA)/1,556 points.</li><li>The market will focus on the first Cabinet meeting of the new government.</li><li>Externally, we will be monitoring the US CPI in August, which is likely to accelerate for the third consecutive month, possibly prompting the Fed to keep the fed funds rate high for a longer duration.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with the support at 1,540 points/1,529 points (the gap opened on August 21) and the resistance at 1,550 points (10-day EMA)/1,556 points.The market will focus on the first Cabinet meeting of the new government.Externally, we will be monitoring the US CPI in August, which is likely to accelerate for the third consecutive month, possibly prompting the Fed to keep the fed funds rate high for a longer duration.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 13, 2023

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a>  has disclosed an indicative non-binding proposal from Paine Schwartz Partners at A$3.50 per share (A$3.54 including potential interim dividend).</li>
<li>The Board has granted eight weeks of non-exclusive due diligence. The due diligence, which started on 6 June, ends on 1 August.</li>
<li>The offer price is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price of A$3.35, the gross spread is 4.5% (5.7% including dividend).</li>
</ul>



Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)  has disclosed an indicative non-binding proposal from Paine Schwartz Partners at A$3.50 per share (A$3.54 including potential interim dividend).
The Board has granted eight weeks of non-exclusive due diligence. The due diligence, which started on 6 June, ends on 1 August.
The offer price is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price of A$3.35, the gross spread is 4.5% (5.7% including dividend).


Costa Group (CGC AU): Paine Schwartz’s Indicative Proposal

Thailand

Ichitan Group Public Company Limited is a leading Thai beverage manufacturer specializing in ready-to-drink green teas, herbal drinks, fruit juices, and energy drinks. The company produces a diverse portfolio of non-alcoholic beverages, including major brands like Ichitan Green Tea and Yen Yen. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was founded in 2010.

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Ichitan (ICHI TB)

Lower Inflation but Unlikely to Be Enough for the Fed to Bring Tightening to an End

Technically, the SET Index is likely to weaken, with the support at 1,420/1,405 points and the resistance at 1,440/1,445 points. The IMF's global...

Krungthai XSpring

Costa Group (CGC AU): Binding Proposal Comes with Risks

The timing of China SAMR approval and the headcount test are risks. The risk/reward is unfavourable as the deal break downside (10%+) outweighs the...

Arun George

Costa Group (CGC AU): Paine Schwartz’s Final Proposal Poses a Dilemma

Shares closed down 3.4% as progress to a binding proposal remains uncertain. The Board faces a dilemma as the offer is light, but some shareholders...

Arun George

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 13, 2023

Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with the support at 1,540 points/1,529 points (the gap opened on August 21) and the...

Krungthai XSpring

Costa Group (CGC AU): Paine Schwartz’s Indicative Proposal

The offer price is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price of A$3.35, the gross spread is 4.5%...

Arun George

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