Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the last 7 1/2 years private sector  banks have increased their market share in overall deposits and credit in the industry. More importantly, in the critical metropolitan (population 1 mn+) areas, which account for the majority of banking business, their gains have been even higher. Government banks have borne the brunt of the loss in market share. This has been on account of their asset quality losses arising from a major feature of economic reforms, namely, the privatisation of infrastructure, funded primarily by government banks; the economic slowdown; and the failure of the government to adequately recapitalise its own banks, ostensibly for fiscal reasons.  While many in the capital market may applaud the increase in market share of private sector banks as a positive development, and as a benign backdoor entry for the further privatisation of the banking sector, policy makers and the public should be aware of some critical aspects. Firstly, the majority of India’s population resides in rural areas, and the overwhelming bulk of the business of private sector banks comes from metropolitan centres. The concentration of private sector banks in metropolitan centres is much higher than that of the overall banking industry, and correspondingly the private sector banks’ rural business is much lower than the industry average. Allowing private sector banks to continue to increase their market share in concentrated areas may further widen the lopsided socio-economic development of India. Secondly, foreign ownership is prevalent in Indian private sector banks; in the 5 largest private sector banks by market capitalisation, foreigner ownership is nearly 60%.Banking in any economy is a strategic industry, in which ownership is not only expected to be diversified, but also encouraged to be domestic. As domestic depositors are the largest stakeholders in Indian banks, it is imperative to check the influence of foreign owners over Indian banks. Foreign portfolio owners are naturally governed by their own interests, which may override domestic interests. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has regulated banks to ensure diversification of ownership, and prevented foreign investors from owning more than a certain threshold of shares, and exercising control over a local bank, over time this could change.In such a scenario it is unfortunate that the government ignores its own banks and provides an impetus to further privatise government banks. In a developing country like India, where the vast majority survive on low incomes, profitability cannot be the sole indicator to measure bank performance, but should be one of others focusing on a more balanced socio-economic development model. While the capital market and government may rejoice with the privatisation of Indian banking, there may be long term repercussions for Indian stakeholders.

In the last 7 1/2 years private sector  banks have increased their market share in overall deposits and credit in the industry. More importantly, in the critical metropolitan (population 1 mn+) areas, which account for the majority of banking business, their gains have been even higher. Government banks have borne the brunt of the loss in market share. This has been on account of their asset quality losses arising from a major feature of economic reforms, namely, the privatisation of infrastructure, funded primarily by government banks; the economic slowdown; and the failure of the government to adequately recapitalise its own banks, ostensibly for fiscal reasons.  While many in the capital market may applaud the increase in market share of private sector banks as a positive development, and as a benign backdoor entry for the further privatisation of the banking sector, policy makers and the public should be aware of some critical aspects. Firstly, the majority of India’s population resides in rural areas, and the overwhelming bulk of the business of private sector banks comes from metropolitan centres. The concentration of private sector banks in metropolitan centres is much higher than that of the overall banking industry, and correspondingly the private sector banks’ rural business is much lower than the industry average. Allowing private sector banks to continue to increase their market share in concentrated areas may further widen the lopsided socio-economic development of India. Secondly, foreign ownership is prevalent in Indian private sector banks; in the 5 largest private sector banks by market capitalisation, foreigner ownership is nearly 60%.Banking in any economy is a strategic industry, in which ownership is not only expected to be diversified, but also encouraged to be domestic. As domestic depositors are the largest stakeholders in Indian banks, it is imperative to check the influence of foreign owners over Indian banks. Foreign portfolio owners are naturally governed by their own interests, which may override domestic interests. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has regulated banks to ensure diversification of ownership, and prevented foreign investors from owning more than a certain threshold of shares, and exercising control over a local bank, over time this could change.In such a scenario it is unfortunate that the government ignores its own banks and provides an impetus to further privatise government banks. In a developing country like India, where the vast majority survive on low incomes, profitability cannot be the sole indicator to measure bank performance, but should be one of others focusing on a more balanced socio-economic development model. While the capital market and government may rejoice with the privatisation of Indian banking, there may be long term repercussions for Indian stakeholders.

Creeping Denationalisation of India’s Banking Sector

India Financials

Saumya Agarwal

Equity Bottom-Up

IDBI bank, which entered the RBI’s Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) regime in 2017, is now showing some signs of a turnaround, particularly on the Capital front. The Bank has also started reporting modest profits since Q4FY20. However, deep -seated woes persist on the Balance sheet. In this long road to recovery can IDBI Bank demonstrate progress on a sustained basis?

IDBI bank, which entered the RBI’s Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) regime in 2017, is now showing some signs of a turnaround, particularly on the Capital front. The Bank has also started reporting modest profits since Q4FY20. However, deep -seated woes persist on the Balance sheet. In this long road to recovery can IDBI Bank demonstrate progress on a sustained basis?

IDBI Bank - It Is Going to Be a Long and an Arduous Road to Recovery

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

There have been several false starts. There were times when many presumed the bad loan cycle was about to end. It could have been with the PSU bank recap plan. It could have been with a new government budget. It could have been with new guidelines on stressed assets. But the reality is that without fundamental relief to debtors, without improving economic growth,  credit metrics should continue to deteriorate. Now at 3Q20 it is once again clear, that there is as yet, no relief in sight.

There have been several false starts. There were times when many presumed the bad loan cycle was about to end. It could have been with the PSU bank recap plan. It could have been with a new government budget. It could have been with new guidelines on stressed assets. But the reality is that without fundamental relief to debtors, without improving economic growth,  credit metrics should continue to deteriorate. Now at 3Q20 it is once again clear, that there is as yet, no relief in sight.

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vodafone-idea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15678:1" rel="noopener">Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN)</a> has been under some significant hardships for quite a while. Since the telecom market disruption caused by Reliance Jio, the company has not been able to walk steadily as it continued reporting operational losses. Further, India's telecom sector has been facing heavy duress ever since the Hon'ble Supreme Court's verdict which upheld the definition of Adjusted Gross Revenues (AGR). The adjusted AGR meant that the telecom operators were liable to pay more than INR 1 trillion to the government as revenue dues by January 24.Lastly, Franklin Templeton's measure to mark down its exposure to the company's debt securities to zero shall be a final nail in the coffin.In the report below, we discuss the highlights and see who faces the maximum heat arising out from the saga.

Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) has been under some significant hardships for quite a while. Since the telecom market disruption caused by Reliance Jio, the company has not been able to walk steadily as it continued reporting operational losses. Further, India's telecom sector has been facing heavy duress ever since the Hon'ble Supreme Court's verdict which upheld the definition of Adjusted Gross Revenues (AGR). The adjusted AGR meant that the telecom operators were liable to pay more than INR 1 trillion to the government as revenue dues by January 24.Lastly, Franklin Templeton's measure to mark down its exposure to the company's debt securities to zero shall be a final nail in the coffin.In the report below, we discuss the highlights and see who faces the maximum heat arising out from the saga.

Vodafone Idea Ltd- Telco's Debt Bomb Ticking Fast and Louder

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Chang Chun Eurasia Group Co. / Equity Bottom-Up

Market Insights with Eurasia Group - US-China Phase 1 deal a limited truce rather than peace

India

IDBI Bank Limited provides a range of banking and financial services. The Bank's services include fund-based operations, such as venture capital and fee-based activities, which include merchant banking and debenture trusteeship.

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IDBI Bank Ltd (IDBI IN)

Creeping Denationalisation of India’s Banking Sector

With foreign investors holding majority ownership of major private banks; & with such private banks increasing their market share, it is difficult...

Hemindra Hazari

IDBI Bank - It Is Going to Be a Long and an Arduous Road to Recovery

IDBI bank entered the PCA regime in 2017 and is now showing some signs of a turnaround. However, deep -seated woes persist and the road ahead will...

Saumya Agarwal

India Banks – No End in Sight

There have been several false starts. There were times when many presumed the bad loan cycle was about to end. It could have been with the PSU bank...

Daniel Tabbush

Vodafone Idea Ltd- Telco's Debt Bomb Ticking Fast and Louder

Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) has been under some significant hardships for quite a while. Since the telecom market disruption caused by Reliance Jio,...

Nitin Mangal

Market Insights with Eurasia Group - US-China Phase 1 deal a limited truce rather than peace

The recent conclusion of a US-China “Phase 1” trade deal signals a limited truce that will likely last through the US...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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