Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Friday post-close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)</a> announced a deal to buy out subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-oil-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11021:1" rel="noopener">Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP)</a>. Cornwall has agreed to tender, so it's a done deal. </li>
<li>This is at ¥3,150/share, which is nearly 30% higher than the bid 21 months ago, where Cornwall bought enough to block, but it is a disappointing outcome for governance.</li>
<li>A clearly problematic tolling agreement with the parent, and what could be ¥100bn of excess land value are ignored. Minority investors get hosed. One of the problems of minority investments.</li>
</ul>


Friday post-close, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) announced a deal to buy out subsidiary Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP). Cornwall has agreed to tender, so it's a done deal. 
This is at ¥3,150/share, which is nearly 30% higher than the bid 21 months ago, where Cornwall bought enough to block, but it is a disappointing outcome for governance.
A clearly problematic tolling agreement with the parent, and what could be ¥100bn of excess land value are ignored. Minority investors get hosed. One of the problems of minority investments.


BREAKING! Dog Loses To Mangalore - Idemitsu Kosan Does Its Deal for Toa Oil (5008)

<ul>
<li>Four weeks ago, the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE sold out of a 15% position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> they'd held for 15yrs. </li>
<li>Today we see noted Japanese activist Murakami Yoshiaki and affiliates have purchased 5+% of the company, including a large chunk the day after the block trade.</li>
<li>Oftentimes he buys stakes in industries where consolidation is overdue and/or natural. Construction has been one such sector. Refiners probably need consolidation too, but it's not clear it's easy here.</li>
</ul>


Four weeks ago, the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE sold out of a 15% position in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) they'd held for 15yrs. 
Today we see noted Japanese activist Murakami Yoshiaki and affiliates have purchased 5+% of the company, including a large chunk the day after the block trade.
Oftentimes he buys stakes in industries where consolidation is overdue and/or natural. Construction has been one such sector. Refiners probably need consolidation too, but it's not clear it's easy here.


Activist Murakami-San Goes Substantial on Cosmo Oil (5021)

<ul>
<li>Mubadala bought 20.8% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> in 2007 at ¥5,068/share (split-adjusted). A few months later it dipped below that and hasn't seen that price since. </li>
<li>The sovereign wealth fund sold 5% last year at ¥2,610, and just 7 months later is bailing on the other 15.7% at a 12-17% discount. </li>
<li>Result? Float will rise. Index funds will buy a bit, and active foreign institutional investors will nearly double their holdings.</li>
</ul>


Mubadala bought 20.8% of Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) in 2007 at ¥5,068/share (split-adjusted). A few months later it dipped below that and hasn't seen that price since. 
The sovereign wealth fund sold 5% last year at ¥2,610, and just 7 months later is bailing on the other 15.7% at a 12-17% discount. 
Result? Float will rise. Index funds will buy a bit, and active foreign institutional investors will nearly double their holdings.


Cosmo Oil (5021 JP) Accelerated Block Offering - Big Discount But... 👀

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Cosmo Energy Holdings   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Mubadala aims to raise around US$287m via selling its 15.8% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The stock has been doing well owing to the rise in crude prices and Mubadala has sold some stock before and hence, the deal might not be wholly unexpected. </li>
<li>However, its an accelerated bookbuild in Japan, which don’t have a great track record.</li>
</ul>


Mubadala aims to raise around US$287m via selling its 15.8% stake in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP).
The stock has been doing well owing to the rise in crude prices and Mubadala has sold some stock before and hence, the deal might not be wholly unexpected. 
However, its an accelerated bookbuild in Japan, which don’t have a great track record.


Cosmo Energy Holdings Placement - Stock Has Done Well, Deal Might Be Expected but It's Accelerated

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Crude oil prices display bullish short-term reversals, resulting in bullish price and RS reversals for global Energy stocks -- add exposure. From a macro perspective, despite some mild price deterioration recently on major indexes around the globe, our outlook remains unchanged and we remain neutral yet constructive overall. Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we continue to see attractive opportunities in many countries/regions such as Japan, China (Shanghai Composite), Europe, India, and Canada, to name a few.</p>

Crude oil prices display bullish short-term reversals, resulting in bullish price and RS reversals for global Energy stocks -- add exposure. From a macro perspective, despite some mild price deterioration recently on major indexes around the globe, our outlook remains unchanged and we remain neutral yet constructive overall. Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we continue to see attractive opportunities in many countries/regions such as Japan, China (Shanghai Composite), Europe, India, and Canada, to name a few.

Global Energy Sector Improving -- Buying Reliance Industries Ltd, Several Others

Japan

Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. explores, imports, refines, and distributes petroleum and its related products.  The Company also manufactures and sells petrochemical products.

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Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)

BREAKING! Dog Loses To Mangalore - Idemitsu Kosan Does Its Deal for Toa Oil (5008)

Idemitsu wins Toa Oil. Cornwall blocked the first deal in Dec2020 (ended Feb21) but agreed to this one. It's a "win" but not really. This was still...

Travis Lundy

Activist Murakami-San Goes Substantial on Cosmo Oil (5021)

Murakami-san seems to have bailed on construction names recently and is now in two refiners, having gone substantial on Cosmo Oil (5021) after the...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Oil (5021 JP) Accelerated Block Offering - Big Discount But... 👀

Mubadala - Abu Dhabi's SWF is selling the remaining 15.7% of Cosmo Energy Holdings it holds in an Accelerated Block Offering for a 12-17% discount....

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy Holdings Placement - Stock Has Done Well, Deal Might Be Expected but It's Accelerated

Mubadala aims to raise around US$287m via selling its 15.8% stake in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP). It will mark a complete exit for Mubadala.

Sumeet Singh

Global Energy Sector Improving -- Buying Reliance Industries Ltd, Several Others

Crude oil prices display bullish short-term reversals, resulting in bullish price and RS reversals for global Energy stocks -- add exposure.

Vermilion Research

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