Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends on Friday. There will be a lot of changes across the family.</li>
<li>Hang Seng Indices will announce the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>There were HUGE inflows to onshore China focused ETFs during the week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> ETFs taking in the largest amounts.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends on Friday. There will be a lot of changes across the family.
Hang Seng Indices will announce the changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI after market close on Friday.
There were HUGE inflows to onshore China focused ETFs during the week with CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index and SSE50 Index ETFs taking in the largest amounts.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: JPXNK400, Kenedix, Positioning - India, Japan, Korea

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13579:1" rel="noopener">Power Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astral-poly-technik-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7890:1" rel="noopener">Astral</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cummins-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7365:1" rel="noopener">Cummins India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supreme-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11443:1" rel="noopener">Supreme Industries</a> have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.</li>
<li>The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.</li>
<li>We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.</li>
</ul>



Power Finance, Astral, IDFC First Bank, Cummins India, HDFC Asset Management, Ashok Leyland, Polycab India and Supreme Industries have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.
The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.
We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.


India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 24.6% YoY/ 6.8% QoQ) in Q1FY24, primarily driven by home loans (up 31% YoY/ 3% QoQ), wheels (up 45% YoY/ 10% QoQ) and rural finance (up 46% YoY/ 8% QoQ) with significant growth across the segments.</li><li>Despite NIM contraction by 8 bps QoQ to 6.33%, healthy growth in advances aided NII growth of 36.1/4.1% YoY/QoQ.</li><li>Other income reported a strong growth of 65.2/1.2% YoY/QoQ, largely led by growth in the fee income from the bank’s retail products.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 24.6% YoY/ 6.8% QoQ) in Q1FY24, primarily driven by home loans (up 31% YoY/ 3% QoQ), wheels (up 45% YoY/ 10% QoQ) and rural finance (up 46% YoY/ 8% QoQ) with significant growth across the segments.Despite NIM contraction by 8 bps QoQ to 6.33%, healthy growth in advances aided NII growth of 36.1/4.1% YoY/QoQ.Other income reported a strong growth of 65.2/1.2% YoY/QoQ, largely led by growth in the fee income from the bank’s retail products.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Asset Quality Improvement Along with Healthy Growth in Advances

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> merger will result in capping and funding changes on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> constituents.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.</li>
</ul>


The HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) / HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) merger will result in capping and funding changes on the Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) constituents.
We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.
The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.


<ul><li>IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 22% YoY/ 3% QoQ) in Q4FY23, primarily driven by home loans (up 39% YoY/ 10% QoQ), wheels (up 34% YoY/ 7% QoQ) and rural finance (up 48% YoY/ 18% QoQ) with significant growth across the segments.</li><li>Healthy growth in advances and NIM at 6.41% aided NII growth of 35/20% YoY/QoQ.</li><li>Other income reported strong growth of 68/32% YoY/QoQ, largely led by growth in the fee income from the bank’s retail products.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 22% YoY/ 3% QoQ) in Q4FY23, primarily driven by home loans (up 39% YoY/ 10% QoQ), wheels (up 34% YoY/ 7% QoQ) and rural finance (up 48% YoY/ 18% QoQ) with significant growth across the segments.Healthy growth in advances and NIM at 6.41% aided NII growth of 35/20% YoY/QoQ.Other income reported strong growth of 68/32% YoY/QoQ, largely led by growth in the fee income from the bank’s retail products.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Beat Across Parameters; Growth Momentum to Continue

India

IDFC First Bank is an Indian private sector universal bank offering a comprehensive suite of products and services across retail, MSME, rural, startups, corporate banking, cash management, credit cards, and wealth management. The bank provides savings and current accounts, fixed deposits, various loans, and investment solutions. It is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in October 2015.

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IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB IN)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: JPXNK400, Kenedix, Positioning - India, Japan, Korea

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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Quite a few Indian stocks have jumped in price recently and the increased market cap will put them on active investors radars and could get the...

Brian Freitas

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Asset Quality Improvement Along with Healthy Growth in Advances

IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 24.6% YoY/ 6.8% QoQ) in Q1FY24, primarily driven by home loans (up 31% YoY/ 3% QoQ)

Axis Direct

HDFC/HDFCB Merger: Impact on Bank Nifty

The HDFC/HDFCB merger will result in a one-way turnover of around 8.4% for the Nifty Bank Index resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m...

Brian Freitas

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Beat Across Parameters; Growth Momentum to Continue

IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 22% YoY/ 3% QoQ) in Q4FY23, primarily driven by home loans (up 39% YoY/ 10% QoQ), wheels (up 34%...

Axis Direct

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