Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Although the fiscal deficit declined to 1.6% of GDP in 2023, markets are pricing in risks arising from President-elect Prabowo's possible resort to fiscal profligacy in pursuit of 8% growth. </li>
<li>More tangibly, with exports declining 7.5%YoY and imports up 1.1%YoY in Q1CY24, the trade surplus shrank to US$7.3bn (from Q1CY23's US$12.11bn), likely widening the CAD (from Q4CY23's 0.4% of GDP).   </li>
<li>With IDR depreciating 9.3%YoY, BI hiked its policy rate by 25bp last week to pre-empt imported inflation. Another rate hike is likely before Oct'24, so we would Underweight Indonesia. </li>
</ul>


Although the fiscal deficit declined to 1.6% of GDP in 2023, markets are pricing in risks arising from President-elect Prabowo's possible resort to fiscal profligacy in pursuit of 8% growth. 
More tangibly, with exports declining 7.5%YoY and imports up 1.1%YoY in Q1CY24, the trade surplus shrank to US$7.3bn (from Q1CY23's US$12.11bn), likely widening the CAD (from Q4CY23's 0.4% of GDP).   
With IDR depreciating 9.3%YoY, BI hiked its policy rate by 25bp last week to pre-empt imported inflation. Another rate hike is likely before Oct'24, so we would Underweight Indonesia. 


Indonesia: Prabowo Risk Beginning to Hurt IDR, Requiring Tighter Money

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Prabowo, a controversial ex-general accused of human rights abuses in Jakarta and East Timor during Suharto's era, looks likely to win the presidential election, with Jokowi's son Gibran as running-mate. </li>
<li>Gibran's presence has shifted the parliamentary polls by 10pp in favour of Prabowo's party, Gerindra, likely making it the largest at the expense of PDI-P-- winner of all previous elections.</li>
<li>Post-Oct'24, policy is likely to become more mercurial, fiscally imprudent, growth- and inflation-oriented. Markets are likely to be turbulent after initial celebration of a decisive outcome. We urge caution. </li>
</ul>


Prabowo, a controversial ex-general accused of human rights abuses in Jakarta and East Timor during Suharto's era, looks likely to win the presidential election, with Jokowi's son Gibran as running-mate. 
Gibran's presence has shifted the parliamentary polls by 10pp in favour of Prabowo's party, Gerindra, likely making it the largest at the expense of PDI-P-- winner of all previous elections.
Post-Oct'24, policy is likely to become more mercurial, fiscally imprudent, growth- and inflation-oriented. Markets are likely to be turbulent after initial celebration of a decisive outcome. We urge caution. 


Elections Likely to Hand a Decisive Mandate to Strongman Prabowo

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>The Fed’s rate hold contrasts with hawkish narrative, keeping rate uncertainty high and Treasury yields elevated ahead.</li><li>Warsh’s reforms reshape the Fed’s framework, but actual policy decisions will remain the key market driver in 2H26.</li><li>Tighter financial conditions make stronger fiscal execution increasingly important to sustain domestic growth momentum.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Fed’s rate hold contrasts with hawkish narrative, keeping rate uncertainty high and Treasury yields elevated ahead.Warsh’s reforms reshape the Fed’s framework, but actual policy decisions will remain the key market driver in 2H26.Tighter financial conditions make stronger fiscal execution increasingly important to sustain domestic growth momentum.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Aug 3, 2026

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Cover Story: Energy Shockwaves From U.S.-Iran War Hit Global Economy</li><li>Analysis: Just How Moderate Will China’s ‘Moderate Easing’ Be?</li><li>China Escalates Crackdown on Illicit Financial Brokers</li><li>China Corruption Probe Highlights Local Debt Strains</li></ul>

Cover Story: Energy Shockwaves From U.S.-Iran War Hit Global EconomyAnalysis: Just How Moderate Will China’s ‘Moderate Easing’ Be?China Escalates Crackdown on Illicit Financial BrokersChina Corruption Probe Highlights Local Debt Strains

CX Daily: Energy Shockwaves From U.S.-Iran War Hit Global Economy 

<ul><li>Rising yields and weaker IDR renew rate-hike concerns, yet FX trends, liquidity conditions, and BI policy suggest low probability. </li><li>Recent SRBI yield moves reflect liquidity calibration, not tightening, keeping rate hikes unlikely while delaying potential rate cuts.</li><li>BI calibrates SRBI awards to balance liquidity and credit as limited FX intervention and seasonal USD demand pressure.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Rising yields and weaker IDR renew rate-hike concerns, yet FX trends, liquidity conditions, and BI policy suggest low probability. Recent SRBI yield moves reflect liquidity calibration, not tightening, keeping rate hikes unlikely while delaying potential rate cuts.BI calibrates SRBI awards to balance liquidity and credit as limited FX intervention and seasonal USD demand pressure.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Jan 26, 2026

Indonesia

The Indonesian rupiah is the official currency of the Republic of Indonesia. 

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IDR (USDIDR CURNCY)

Indonesia: Prabowo Risk Beginning to Hurt IDR, Requiring Tighter Money

Despite a smaller fiscal deficit (1.6% of GDP) in 2023, markets are pricing in "Prabowo risk". The switch to a current account deficit will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Elections Likely to Hand a Decisive Mandate to Strongman Prabowo

Controversial ex-general Prabowo is poised to win the presidential election with Jokowi's son as his running-mate, potentially leading to unstable...

Prasenjit K. Basu

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Aug 3, 2026

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has introduced an ambitious reform agenda, but markets are still waiting for these changes to translate into actual policy...

BRI Danareksa Research

CX Daily: Energy Shockwaves From U.S.-Iran War Hit Global Economy

TOP STORIES Cover Story: Energy Shockwaves From U. S. -Iran War Hit Global Economy Raffy, who works in Manila, usually drives the three-hour...

Caixin Global

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Jan 26, 2026

Rising yields and weaker IDR renew rate-hike concerns, yet FX trends, liquidity conditions, and BI policy suggest low probability.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indonesia: Prabowo Risk Beginning to Hurt IDR, Requiring Tighter Money

Despite a smaller fiscal deficit (1.6% of GDP) in 2023, markets are pricing in "Prabowo risk". The switch to a current account deficit will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Elections Likely to Hand a Decisive Mandate to Strongman Prabowo

​Controversial ex-general Prabowo is poised to win the presidential election with Jokowi's son as his running-mate, potentially leading to unstable...

Prasenjit K. Basu

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Aug 3, 2026

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has introduced an ambitious reform agenda, but markets are still waiting for these changes to translate into actual policy...

BRI Danareksa Research

CX Daily: Energy Shockwaves From U.S.-Iran War Hit Global Economy

TOP STORIES Cover Story: Energy Shockwaves From U. S. -Iran War Hit Global Economy Raffy, who works in Manila, usually drives the three-hour...

Caixin Global

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Jan 26, 2026

Rising yields and weaker IDR renew rate-hike concerns, yet FX trends, liquidity conditions, and BI policy suggest low probability.

BRI Danareksa Research

Controversial ex-general Prabowo is poised to win the presidential election with Jokowi's son as his running-mate, potentially leading to unstable...