Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.</li><li>The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.</li><li>This is the first prerequisite for an actual recession as a recession never arrives when everyone plans for one.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.This is the first prerequisite for an actual recession as a recession never arrives when everyone plans for one.

Steno Signals #75 – The 2007/2008 Playbook Is Useful Again

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian election will take place on February 14, 2024, and registration for president and vice president candidacies has opened starting today.</li>
<li>PDIP has nominated Ganjar and Mahfud, while Nasdem has nominated Anies and Muhaimin Iskandar, the deputy speaker of the People's Representative Council of Indonesia.</li>
<li>It now depends on who Prabowo, the current defense minister and two-time presidential candidate, will run with. </li>
</ul>


The Indonesian election will take place on February 14, 2024, and registration for president and vice president candidacies has opened starting today.
PDIP has nominated Ganjar and Mahfud, while Nasdem has nominated Anies and Muhaimin Iskandar, the deputy speaker of the People's Representative Council of Indonesia.
It now depends on who Prabowo, the current defense minister and two-time presidential candidate, will run with. 


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>With a positive real policy rate of +2.23% and 3.5% appreciation of IDR ytd, BI was comfortably able to keep its policy rate unchanged despite this week's US rate hike.  </li>
<li>Despite the commodity price correction, Indonesia will likely post a 2023 current account surplus of 0.2% of GDP; its fiscal deficit was 1.6% of GDP in the latest 12 months. </li>
<li>The equity market is trading at a trailing P/E of 14.7x, marginally below its 30-year mean. With RGDP of 5% in 2023 and 5.5% in 2024, we recommend being Overweight. </li>
</ul>


With a positive real policy rate of +2.23% and 3.5% appreciation of IDR ytd, BI was comfortably able to keep its policy rate unchanged despite this week's US rate hike.  
Despite the commodity price correction, Indonesia will likely post a 2023 current account surplus of 0.2% of GDP; its fiscal deficit was 1.6% of GDP in the latest 12 months. 
The equity market is trading at a trailing P/E of 14.7x, marginally below its 30-year mean. With RGDP of 5% in 2023 and 5.5% in 2024, we recommend being Overweight. 


Indonesia: Attractively Valued Amid Good Growth with Low Inflation and CA Surplus

<ul>
<li>Riding the boom in energy prices, Indonesia had twin surpluses in 1H2022: a fiscal surplus of 0.9% of GDP and a BoP current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP.</li>
<li>After last week's policy rate hike, real interest rates are close to positive. Fiscal strength allows the government to boost spending to counter the OECD recession over the next year.</li>
<li>We expect real GDP growth of 6%YoY in 2H2022, and 6.3% in 2023. With nominal GDP surging nearly 15%, EPS will be resurgent and valuations attractive. Overweight Indonesia.  </li>
</ul>


Riding the boom in energy prices, Indonesia had twin surpluses in 1H2022: a fiscal surplus of 0.9% of GDP and a BoP current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP.
After last week's policy rate hike, real interest rates are close to positive. Fiscal strength allows the government to boost spending to counter the OECD recession over the next year.
We expect real GDP growth of 6%YoY in 2H2022, and 6.3% in 2023. With nominal GDP surging nearly 15%, EPS will be resurgent and valuations attractive. Overweight Indonesia.  


Indonesia: Set to Accelerate Amid the OECD Recession, Helped by Twin Surpluses

Indonesia

The Indonesian rupiah is the official currency of the Republic of Indonesia. 

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Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Steno Signals #75 – The 2007/2008 Playbook Is Useful Again

The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.

Steno Research

Indonesia Election 2024: The Conundrum

Indonesian election will happen on Feb 14th 2024 with some people expecting Ganjar to be the President as Jokowi has publicly endorsed him but it...

Henry Soediarko

Indonesia: Attractively Valued Amid Good Growth with Low Inflation and CA Surplus

With a real policy rate of +2.23% & 3.5% IDR appreciation ytd, BI saw no need to match the US rate hike. Solid 5%+ RGDP growth with a CA surplus...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Indonesia: Set to Accelerate Amid the OECD Recession, Helped by Twin Surpluses

With a BoPCA surplus of 0.6% & fiscal surplus of 0.9% of GDP in 1H2022, Indonesia is able to provide a big fiscal stimulus over the next year. EPS...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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