Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

In this note, we discuss the lag of EM currencies relative to commodities this year.The attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we discuss the lag of EM currencies relative to commodities this year.The attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

FX Dashboard: EM Currencies Vs Commodities

In this note, we postulate that the Turkish lira (TRY) is almost entirely an idiosyncratic play currently.The attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we postulate that the Turkish lira (TRY) is almost entirely an idiosyncratic play currently.The attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

FX Dashboard: Lira Is an Idiosyncratic Play

In this note, we compare and contrast the performance of Asian and Latin American currencies during the pandemic.The attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we compare and contrast the performance of Asian and Latin American currencies during the pandemic.The attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

FX Dashboard: Asian Vs LatAm Currencies During the Pandemic

In this note, we go over the factors driving the lira's performance and our view on the currency. The attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we go over the factors driving the lira's performance and our view on the currency. The attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

FX Dashboard: Explaining Lira's Outperformance

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Compared to India, which may have achieved herd immunity by accident rather than by design as caseloads have tumbled of late following the abrupt re-opening after a strict lockdown in March 2020, Indonesia’s experiment with loose mobility curbs at the onset of the pandemic may actually prolong the ongoing economic malaise.</li>
<li>More fiscal policy support is forthcoming, but growing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/usd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22821:1" rel="noopener">USD (USD CURNCY)</a> strength amid growing prospects for the USD1.9tr-stimulus package in the US will force BI to remain cautious in February's monetary policy meeting. </li>
</ul>


Compared to India, which may have achieved herd immunity by accident rather than by design as caseloads have tumbled of late following the abrupt re-opening after a strict lockdown in March 2020, Indonesia’s experiment with loose mobility curbs at the onset of the pandemic may actually prolong the ongoing economic malaise.
More fiscal policy support is forthcoming, but growing USD (USD CURNCY) strength amid growing prospects for the USD1.9tr-stimulus package in the US will force BI to remain cautious in February's monetary policy meeting. 


Indonesia: Loose Mobility Curbs Fail to Spruce Up The Economy

Indonesia

The Indonesian rupiah is the official currency of the Republic of Indonesia. 

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FX Dashboard: EM Currencies Vs Commodities

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that identifies dislocations in EM currency. In this note, we discuss the YTD lag of EM currencies relative to...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Lira Is an Idiosyncratic Play

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that identifies dislocations in EM currency markets. In this note, we postulate that the Turkish lira (TRY) is...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Asian Vs LatAm Currencies During the Pandemic

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that highlights dislocations in EM currency markets. In this note, we compare and contrast the performance of...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Explaining Lira's Outperformance

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that highlights dislocations in EM currency markets. In this note, we go over the factors driving the lira's...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Indonesia: Loose Mobility Curbs Fail to Spruce Up The Economy

Indonesia's experiment with relatively loose mobility curbs at the onset of the pandemic may have prolonged the economic malaise.

Nicholas Chia

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