Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>Recently the Chinese regulator National Press and Publication Administration (NPPA) announced the July batch of approvals for domestic games. </p>
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<p>In this insight, we will have a close look at the trend of domestic game approval for both Tencent and its key competitor, Netease. We will also have a review of domestic games approved in 2021 YTD. </p>
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<p>We are of the view that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17203:1" rel="noopener">Netease Inc (Adr) (NTES US)</a> has done better than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> in terms of games approved. </p>
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Recently the Chinese regulator National Press and Publication Administration (NPPA) announced the July batch of approvals for domestic games. 


In this insight, we will have a close look at the trend of domestic game approval for both Tencent and its key competitor, Netease. We will also have a review of domestic games approved in 2021 YTD. 


We are of the view that Netease Inc (Adr) (NTES US) has done better than Tencent Holdings (700 HK) in terms of games approved. 



Tencent/NetEase: July Game Approval Analysis

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.</p><p>The June review will see the inclusion of stocks that were newly listed from 1 January to 31 March and meet the criteria for joining the index.</p><p>Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.</p><div><p>There are a lot of stocks that will join the HSCI and will subsequently be included as a part of the Southbound Stock Connect program - these stocks could be bought by mainland investors and could outperform their peers and the market.</p></div><div><p>There are stocks that will be deleted from the HSCI and consequently deleted from the Southbound Stock Connect buy list while some stocks will be deleted from the HSCI but maintained in Stock Connect since they have listed A-shares.</p></div><div><p>Read on for more details and the stocks affected by the changes.</p></div>

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.The June review will see the inclusion of stocks that were newly listed from 1 January to 31 March and meet the criteria for joining the index.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.There are a lot of stocks that will join the HSCI and will subsequently be included as a part of the Southbound Stock Connect program - these stocks could be bought by mainland investors and could outperform their peers and the market.There are stocks that will be deleted from the HSCI and consequently deleted from the Southbound Stock Connect buy list while some stocks will be deleted from the HSCI but maintained in Stock Connect since they have listed A-shares.Read on for more details and the stocks affected by the changes.

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

Quantitative Analysis

<p>Following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gamestop-corp-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13790:1" rel="noopener">GameStop Corp Class A (GME US)</a> saga that has been all over the financial press (and is now spreading into the mainstream press), we have been getting questions on names in Hong Kong that could be prone to a squeeze.</p><p>We do not believe that retail players in Hong Kong have the heft that retail investors in the US do, nor are single stock options frequently used (though there is a lot of retail activity in warrants on large cap names), but the pain that is being felt in global portfolios could lead to unwinding in Hong Kong shorts too.</p><p>Some highly shorted stocks in Hong Kong that have seen prices jump today along with volume surge are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitasoy-intl-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2807:1" rel="noopener">Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-literature-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24388:1" rel="noopener">China Literature (772 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mtr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13289:1" rel="noopener">MTR Corp (66 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/want-want-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:355:1" rel="noopener">Want Want (151 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-real-estate-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26031:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Real Estate Investment (1997 HK)</a>.</p><p>We identify more stocks that could be prone to short covering based on short interest as a percentage of issued shares, free float and in terms of days of ADV to cover.</p>

Following the GameStop Corp Class A (GME US) saga that has been all over the financial press (and is now spreading into the mainstream press), we have been getting questions on names in Hong Kong that could be prone to a squeeze.We do not believe that retail players in Hong Kong have the heft that retail investors in the US do, nor are single stock options frequently used (though there is a lot of retail activity in warrants on large cap names), but the pain that is being felt in global portfolios could lead to unwinding in Hong Kong shorts too.Some highly shorted stocks in Hong Kong that have seen prices jump today along with volume surge are Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK), China Literature (772 HK), Bank of East Asia (23 HK), MTR Corp (66 HK), Want Want (151 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK) and Wharf Real Estate Investment (1997 HK).We identify more stocks that could be prone to short covering based on short interest as a percentage of issued shares, free float and in terms of days of ADV to cover.

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idreamsky-technology-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5570:1" rel="noopener">iDreamsky Technology Limited (1119 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> . Shorts increased in Real Estate, Energy and Consumer Staples and decreased in Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Communication Services.</p></div><div>
<p>There was a lot of short covering in Japan during the week. Stocks that saw the most shorts covered were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, while shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-m-a-center-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17616:1" rel="noopener">Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamato-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2:1" rel="noopener">Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a>. Sectorally, the most shorts were covered in Consumer Staples, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Financials.</p>
<p>Stocks in Korea that saw an increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> while stocks that saw the most short covering were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a>.</p>
</div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genius-electronic-optical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9632:1" rel="noopener">Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hon-hai-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1" rel="noopener">Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ase-technology-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27270:1" rel="noopener">ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd (3711 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on JD.com (HK) (9618 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), iDreamsky Technology Limited (1119 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) and Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) . Shorts increased in Real Estate, Energy and Consumer Staples and decreased in Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Communication Services.
There was a lot of short covering in Japan during the week. Stocks that saw the most shorts covered were Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) and Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), while shorts increased on Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP), Yamato Holdings (9064 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP). Sectorally, the most shorts were covered in Consumer Staples, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Financials.
Stocks in Korea that saw an increase in shorts were Kakao Corp (035720 KS) and Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) while stocks that saw the most short covering were Doosan Infracore (042670 KS), LG Display (034220 KS), Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS) and LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS).
Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Largan Precision (3008 TT), TSMC (2330 TT), Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT) and Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT) while shorts were covered on Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) and ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd (3711 TT). 

Asia Short Interest Weekly: JD, Xiaomi, Nihon M&A, Asahi, Toshiba, Kakao, Netmarble, Largan, Novatek

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leyou-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5831:1" rel="noopener">Leyou Technologies (1089 HK)</a>’s long-drawn takeover saga has entered its final act. After market close on Thursday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer by way of a scheme of arrangement for Leyou. Tencent will offer HK$3.3219 per scheme share. The bid represents a premium of 30.27% over the closing price of HK$2.5500 per share on the last trading day (19 September 2019) and a premium of 4.46% over the last close price of HK$3.18 per share.</p><p>As a reminder on 10 July, Leyou announced that Mr Yuk, the controlling shareholder, entered into a three months exclusivity agreement with Tencent Mobility, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent, to sell his stake. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-ending-the-leyou-takeover-saga" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous note</a>, we opined that there is a high chance that this takeover saga ends with an agreement between Mr Yuk and Tencent.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>We think that this is a done deal due to the irrevocables, no other shareholder holding a blocking stake along with the attractive premium to peers multiples and historical VWAPs implied by the privatisation price.   </p></div>

Leyou Technologies (1089 HK)’s long-drawn takeover saga has entered its final act. After market close on Thursday, Tencent Holdings (700 HK) announced a privatisation offer by way of a scheme of arrangement for Leyou. Tencent will offer HK$3.3219 per scheme share. The bid represents a premium of 30.27% over the closing price of HK$2.5500 per share on the last trading day (19 September 2019) and a premium of 4.46% over the last close price of HK$3.18 per share.As a reminder on 10 July, Leyou announced that Mr Yuk, the controlling shareholder, entered into a three months exclusivity agreement with Tencent Mobility, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent, to sell his stake. In our previous note, we opined that there is a high chance that this takeover saga ends with an agreement between Mr Yuk and Tencent.We think that this is a done deal due to the irrevocables, no other shareholder holding a blocking stake along with the attractive premium to peers multiples and historical VWAPs implied by the privatisation price.   

Tencent Launches a Privatisation Bid for Leyou

China

iDreamSky Technology operates a digital entertainment platform, primarily publishing and operating mobile games through apps and websites in China. The company also develops mobile games, offers in-game information and advertising services, and engages in IP derivatives business, including console game experiences and sales of trendy products. It was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

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iDreamSky Technology (1119 HK)

Tencent/NetEase: July Game Approval Analysis

We analysed the games approved by regulator in July and note that Tencent is tracking behind NetEase in terms of pace of obtaining approved.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

A look at the potential changes to the HSCI at the June & September reviews and stocks that could be included in/excluded from Stock Connect. These...

Brian Freitas

HK Shorts: Squeeze-O-Meter

Following the GameStop saga, we try to identify stocks in HK that could be susceptible to a short squeeze based on short interest vs issued shares...

Brian Freitas

Asia Short Interest Weekly: JD, Xiaomi, Nihon M&A, Asahi, Toshiba, Kakao, Netmarble, Largan, Novatek

Highlighting changes in short interest across stocks in HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan to pinpoint stocks/sectors that are being shorted or covered...

Brian Freitas

Tencent Launches a Privatisation Bid for Leyou

Leyou Technologies (1089 HK)’s long-drawn takeover saga has entered its final act. After market close on Thursday, Tencent Holdings (700 HK)...

Arun George

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