Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in the past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)</a>'s takeunder for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a>; Tianqi/OGO's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in the past week: Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)'s takeunder for Esso Thailand (ESSO TB); Tianqi/OGO's Offer for Essential Metals (ESS AU).
Key updates took place for: Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU) and Halcyon Agri (HACL SP).



(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Esso Thailand, Essential Met, Norwest Energy, Halcyon Agri

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a> has entered a SID with a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5698:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> JV at A$0.50, a 44.9% premium to the undisturbed price (6 January).</li>
<li>The scheme is subject to shareholder and FIRB approval. The FIRB should approve a 49% Aussie-owned offeror for a project to be processed in Australia.</li>
<li>There is a possibility of a competing bid as the offer is far from a knockout bid and ESS lacks substantial shareholders. The scheme meeting is in April. </li>
</ul>



Essential Metals (ESS AU) has entered a SID with a Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)/IGO Ltd (IGO AU) JV at A$0.50, a 44.9% premium to the undisturbed price (6 January).
The scheme is subject to shareholder and FIRB approval. The FIRB should approve a 49% Aussie-owned offeror for a project to be processed in Australia.
There is a possibility of a competing bid as the offer is far from a knockout bid and ESS lacks substantial shareholders. The scheme meeting is in April. 


Essential Metals (ESS AU)’s Enters a SID at A$0.50 with a Tianqi/IGO JV

<ul>
<li>Small lithium player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a> has <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02619307-6A1131117?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into a Scheme</a> with the Tianqi Lithium JV, comprising <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a> (51%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> (49%). </li>
<li>The Scheme Consideration of A$0.50/share is a 45% premium to last close, and a 36.3% premium to the 30-day VWAP. </li>
<li>Standard Scheme conditions apply. FIRB required. The Scheme Booklet is due out in March, with a shareholder meeting expected in April 2023. Possible implementation in May 2023.</li>
</ul>


Small lithium player Essential Metals (ESS AU) has entered into a Scheme with the Tianqi Lithium JV, comprising Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) (51%) and IGO Ltd (IGO AU) (49%). 
The Scheme Consideration of A$0.50/share is a 45% premium to last close, and a 36.3% premium to the 30-day VWAP. 
Standard Scheme conditions apply. FIRB required. The Scheme Booklet is due out in March, with a shareholder meeting expected in April 2023. Possible implementation in May 2023.


Essential Metals (ESS AU): Scheme With Tianqi/IGO

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 2nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD17.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in IGO, Pilbara Mineral, Seek, Carsales.com, Allkem, Woodside Energy, Domino's Pizza, Westfarmers, Evolution Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 2nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD17.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in IGO, Pilbara Mineral, Seek, Carsales.com, Allkem, Woodside Energy, Domino's Pizza, Westfarmers, Evolution Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 2nd): IGO, Pilbara Mineral, Seek, Carsales.com, Allkem

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> at A$9/share in cash.</li>
<li>The offer values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>'s equity at A$15.5bn and is a 54.9% premium to the last close. The premium is over 50% even using longer term VWAPs.</li>
<li>There will be changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to maintain the number of index members. We will know more once an indicative timeline is published.</li>
</ul>


A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the shares in Origin Energy (ORG AU) at A$9/share in cash.
The offer values Origin Energy (ORG AU)'s equity at A$15.5bn and is a 54.9% premium to the last close. The premium is over 50% even using longer term VWAPs.
There will be changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to maintain the number of index members. We will know more once an indicative timeline is published.


Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications

Australia

IGO Limited operates as an exploration company. The Company explores and mines copper, ore, nickel, gold, and other mineral resources. IGO serves customers worldwide.

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IGO Ltd (IGO AU)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Esso Thailand, Essential Met, Norwest Energy, Halcyon Agri

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Essential Metals (ESS AU)’s Enters a SID at A$0.50 with a Tianqi/IGO JV

FIRB approval is a risk. The offer is far from a knockout bid which raises the possibility of a competing bid. At the last close and for a May end...

Arun George

Essential Metals (ESS AU): Scheme With Tianqi/IGO

This is done and should trade tight. Trading at an attractive gross/annualised spread of 4.8%/14.6% (assuming mid-May implementation) as I type,...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 2nd): IGO, Pilbara Mineral, Seek, Carsales.com, Allkem

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in IGO, Pilbara Mineral, Seek, Carsales.com, Allkem,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications

A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made an NBIO for Origin at A$9/share, a 54.9% premium to last. There is a high probability of this going...

Brian Freitas

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