Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>Additionally, we continue to believe the bottom is in for SPX, IWM, QQQ, and Technology areas (XLK, IGV, SOXX, CHAT).</li>
<li>With that said, some mixed price action in A.I. themes -- notably semiconductors (SOXX), generative A.I. (CHAT), memory (DRAM), and neoclouds (WGMI) -- are giving us some reason for pause.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
Additionally, we continue to believe the bottom is in for SPX, IWM, QQQ, and Technology areas (XLK, IGV, SOXX, CHAT).
With that said, some mixed price action in A.I. themes -- notably semiconductors (SOXX), generative A.I. (CHAT), memory (DRAM), and neoclouds (WGMI) -- are giving us some reason for pause.


Mixed Signals in A.I. Names (SOXX, CHAT, DRAM, WGMI); Bullish Outlook Intact

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Illumina reported a solid financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, riding on the strength of its NovaSeq X transition and robust demand in the clinical markets.</li><li>The company posted a total revenue of $1.08 billion, which was slightly above expectations.</li><li>Importantly, revenue outside China saw a 2% year-over-year increase, signaling a return to growth despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges and regulatory roadblocks, particularly in Greater China.</li></ul>

Illumina reported a solid financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, riding on the strength of its NovaSeq X transition and robust demand in the clinical markets.The company posted a total revenue of $1.08 billion, which was slightly above expectations.Importantly, revenue outside China saw a 2% year-over-year increase, signaling a return to growth despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges and regulatory roadblocks, particularly in Greater China.

Illumina: Will Its Latest China Partnerships Unlock Its Next Billion-Dollar Market?

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).</li>
<li>Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold</li>
<li>The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).
Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold
The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS


Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for SP 500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the September 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 4 September 2026.</li>
<li>There are 3 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. </li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for SP 500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the September 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 4 September 2026.
There are 3 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. 


Quiddity SP 500 Sep26 Results: Over US$31bn One Way Flow

<ul>
<li>The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The rankings used for the September 2026 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (2 September 2026) opening prices. The announcement will be made after the close on Friday.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&amp;A events which affect the index the next few quarters).</li>
</ul>


The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the September 2026 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (2 September 2026) opening prices. The announcement will be made after the close on Friday.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&amp;A events which affect the index the next few quarters).


Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Sep26 Rebal: Final Expectations

United States

Illumina, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets integrated systems for the large scale analysis of genetic variation and biological function. The Company provides a comprehensive line of products and services that currently serve the sequencing, genotyping and gene expression markets for genomic research centers, pharmaceutical companies, academic institutions and biotechnology companies.

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Illumina Inc (ILMN US)

Mixed Signals in A.I. Names (SOXX, CHAT, DRAM, WGMI); Bullish Outlook Intact

Mixed Signals in A.I. Names ($SOXX $CHAT $DRAM $WGMI); Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM. $CHAT breaking above the 50-day MA likely signaling...

Vermilion Research

Illumina: Will Its Latest China Partnerships Unlock Its Next Billion-Dollar Market?

Illumina reported a solid financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, riding on the strength of its NovaSeq X transition and robust...

Baptista Research

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity SP 500 Sep26 Results: Over US$31bn One Way Flow

Three ADDs and three DELs for the SP 500 in Sep 2026, driving over ~US$31bn of one-way flow across the SP 500, the Select Sector indices and the SP...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Sep26 Rebal: Final Expectations

Two ADDs, two DELs for the September 2026 S&P 500 rebalance. Bloom Energy and Twilio lead the ADDs race. But the committee may skip Non-1500 entirely.

Anjana Amarasuriya

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