Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Capital Markets

ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai) / Equity Capital Markets

ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai) (IOB HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/immuneonco-biopharmaceuticals-shanghai-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36080:1" rel="noopener">ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai) (IOB HK)</a> announced the placement of 24.2M shares for subscription at HK$14.5 per share.</li>
<li>The company intends to use most of the net proceeds for further research and development of drug candidates IMM01, IMM2510 and IMM27M.</li>
<li>The current market price of the stock makes the placement offer unattractive. Concerns remain with no drugs commercialized yet and the only possible commercialization expected to happen not before 2027.</li>
</ul>



ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai) (IOB HK) announced the placement of 24.2M shares for subscription at HK$14.5 per share.
The company intends to use most of the net proceeds for further research and development of drug candidates IMM01, IMM2510 and IMM27M.
The current market price of the stock makes the placement offer unattractive. Concerns remain with no drugs commercialized yet and the only possible commercialization expected to happen not before 2027.


ImmuneOnco(1541 HK): No Near Term Triggers, Commercialization Still Far Away, Placement Unattractive

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hanx Biopharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CD47 has been considered “problematic” by the industry, so in order to prove its druggability, it usually requires very good clinical data, and cannot rely on “conjectures” such as BsAb. </li>
<li>There’s no compelling evidence to prove that the toxicity issue of CD47 can be resolved. There're concerns on the safety profile and efficacy of HX009/HX044, with high R&amp;D failure risks.</li>
<li>After Series B+ of financing in June 2024, post-investment valuation of Hanx reached about RMB1.6 billion. Due to slower R&amp;D progress. we think Hanx’s valuation should be lower than ImmuneOnco.  </li>
</ul>


CD47 has been considered “problematic” by the industry, so in order to prove its druggability, it usually requires very good clinical data, and cannot rely on “conjectures” such as BsAb. 
There’s no compelling evidence to prove that the toxicity issue of CD47 can be resolved. There're concerns on the safety profile and efficacy of HX009/HX044, with high R&amp;D failure risks.
After Series B+ of financing in June 2024, post-investment valuation of Hanx reached about RMB1.6 billion. Due to slower R&amp;D progress. we think Hanx’s valuation should be lower than ImmuneOnco.  


Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals - The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.</li>
<li>I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.</li>
<li>Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.
I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.
Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.


Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.</li>
<li>There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions. </li>
<li>I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.
There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions. 
I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.</li>
<li>Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.</li>
<li>I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.
Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.
I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

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ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai) (IOB HK)

ImmuneOnco(1541 HK): No Near Term Triggers, Commercialization Still Far Away, Placement Unattractive

ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai) announced a placement offer for 24.2M shares at HK$14.5/share. Proceeds intended for R&D....

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals - The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High

CD47's druggability is questioned in the industry, requiring strong clinical data to to turn things around. Hanx's pipeline has high failure R&D...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

LVC’s trading behaviour suggests that it is likely to block the vote. Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing. Both have...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move

There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote and support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain...

Arun George

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ImmuneOnco(1541 HK): No Near Term Triggers, Commercialization Still Far Away, Placement Unattractive

​ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai) announced a placement offer for 24.2M shares at HK$14.5/share. Proceeds intended for R&D....

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals - The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High

​CD47's druggability is questioned in the industry, requiring strong clinical data to to turn things around. Hanx's pipeline has high failure R&D...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

LVC’s trading behaviour suggests that it is likely to block the vote. Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing. Both have...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move

There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote and support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain...

Arun George

ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (Shanghai) announced a placement offer for 24.2M shares at HK$14.5/share. Proceeds intended for R&D....

CD47's druggability is questioned in the industry, requiring strong clinical data to to turn things around. Hanx's pipeline has high failure R&D...