Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>PM Anwar's effective abandonment of the multi-racial agenda he advocated during his quarter-century in Opposition has led to large net outflows of FPI and FDI, especially in Q1CY24. </li>
<li>The trend weakening of the BoP current account was temporarily reprieved in Q1 by a sharp decline in the incomes deficit. Medium-term challenges still pressure MYR, as FX reserves stagnate.</li>
<li>Cyclical recovery likely to peter out, with structural fiscal deficit at 5.5% of GDP, and scant scope for monetary stimulus. We recommend being Underweight Malaysia, with Penang-linked stocks the exception. </li>
</ul>


PM Anwar's effective abandonment of the multi-racial agenda he advocated during his quarter-century in Opposition has led to large net outflows of FPI and FDI, especially in Q1CY24. 
The trend weakening of the BoP current account was temporarily reprieved in Q1 by a sharp decline in the incomes deficit. Medium-term challenges still pressure MYR, as FX reserves stagnate.
Cyclical recovery likely to peter out, with structural fiscal deficit at 5.5% of GDP, and scant scope for monetary stimulus. We recommend being Underweight Malaysia, with Penang-linked stocks the exception. 


Malaysia: Net Outflow of FDI and FPI Reflect Basic Haemorrhage of Trust

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Aug 28th. The aggregated short interest is USD1,555m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in KPJ Healthcare, CIMB, Greatech Technology, Lafarge Malayan Cement, Frontken.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Aug 28th. The aggregated short interest is USD1,555m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in KPJ Healthcare, CIMB, Greatech Technology, Lafarge Malayan Cement, Frontken.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Aug 28th): KPJ Healthcare, CIMB, Greatech Technology, Frontken

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Aug 21st. The aggregated short interest is USD1,488m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in AFFIN, Malayan Banking, Axis Real Estate Investment Trust, Heineken, MY EG Services.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Aug 21st. The aggregated short interest is USD1,488m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in AFFIN, Malayan Banking, Axis Real Estate Investment Trust, Heineken, MY EG Services.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Aug 21st): AFFIN, Malayan Banking, Axis Real Estate Investment Trust

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect PH to win the 15th General Election, because it will win a majority of the seats in West Malaysia as the non-PH vote splits between UMNO and PN. </li>
<li>PH may fall short of a national majority because it competes with local parties (rather than aligning with any major ones) in Sabah-Sarawak, which may hold the final cards.</li>
<li>While that is our baseline scenario, if current polling holds, PH will comfortably form the government with Anwar as PM. Winners will be technology companies and Hong Leong group.</li>
</ul>


We expect PH to win the 15th General Election, because it will win a majority of the seats in West Malaysia as the non-PH vote splits between UMNO and PN. 
PH may fall short of a national majority because it competes with local parties (rather than aligning with any major ones) in Sabah-Sarawak, which may hold the final cards.
While that is our baseline scenario, if current polling holds, PH will comfortably form the government with Anwar as PM. Winners will be technology companies and Hong Leong group.


Malaysia: PH Is Stronger in West Malaysia, but Sabah-Sarawak May Hold Final Cards

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jul 31st. The aggregated short interest is USD1,324m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Petronas Chemicals, RHB Bank, MY EG Services, IOI Properties, SNS.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jul 31st. The aggregated short interest is USD1,324m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Petronas Chemicals, RHB Bank, MY EG Services, IOI Properties, SNS.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jul 31st): Petronas Chemicals, RHB Bank, MY EG Services, IOI Properties

Malaysia

Inari Amertron Berhad is an investment holding company involved in the electronics manufacturing services (EMS) industry. The Company provides semiconductor packaging services such as back-end wafer processing, assembly and testing for global customers in Radio Frequency (RF) and in Optoelectronic products. Inari has manufacturing facilities in Malaysia, China and Philippines.

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Inari Amertron (INRI MK)

Malaysia: Net Outflow of FDI and FPI Reflect Basic Haemorrhage of Trust

Pressured by Islamist PAS, PM Anwar has abandoned his 25-year advocacy of multi-racialism. Net FDI & FPI outflows will pressure MYR. Fiscal deficit...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Aug 28th): KPJ Healthcare, CIMB, Greatech Technology, Frontken

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in KPJ Healthcare, CIMB, Greatech...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Aug 21st): AFFIN, Malayan Banking, Axis Real Estate Investment Trust

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in AFFIN, Malayan Banking, Axis Real...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Malaysia: PH Is Stronger in West Malaysia, but Sabah-Sarawak May Hold Final Cards

Anwar Ibrahim will be PM by the end of November. PH will win west Malaysia comfortably, but may fall short nationally because of Borneo states....

Prasenjit K. Basu

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jul 31st): Petronas Chemicals, RHB Bank, MY EG Services, IOI Properties

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Petronas Chemicals, RHB Bank, MY EG...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)