Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 1st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Commonw Bk Austr, Rio Tinto, Seven Group Hold, Wesfarmers, Igo, Yancoal Australi, Macquarie, Xero, Lovisa.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 1st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Commonw Bk Austr, Rio Tinto, Seven Group Hold, Wesfarmers, Igo, Yancoal Australi, Macquarie, Xero, Lovisa.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 1st): Commonw Bk Austr, Rio Tinto, Seven Group Hold, Wesfarmers, Igo

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were index review announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and STAR100 Index later in the week.</li>
<li>Another week of outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK)</a> as inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> continue.</li>
</ul>


There were index review announcements for the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the STAR50 INDEX and STAR100 Index later in the week.
Another week of outflows for Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK) as inflows to iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) continue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index ends on 29 February with results announced on 8 March and implemented on 15 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease Group (LLC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> are very close to deletion zone and price moves over the next couple of weeks are important.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> is also a deletion from a global index in February and a lower stock price could lead to deletion from this index too.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index ends on 29 February with results announced on 8 March and implemented on 15 March.

Lendlease Group (LLC AU), IDP Education (IEL AU) and IGO Ltd (IGO AU) are very close to deletion zone and price moves over the next couple of weeks are important.

IGO Ltd (IGO AU) is also a deletion from a global index in February and a lower stock price could lead to deletion from this index too.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Should I Stay or Should IGO?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a> will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.</li>
<li>Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.</li>
<li>There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.</li>
</ul>



A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.
Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.
There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a> could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.</li>
<li>There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.</li>
<li>With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a>, shorts have been increasing on nearly all the potential and close deletions.</li>
</ul>



AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU) could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.
There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.
With the exception of A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), shorts have been increasing on nearly all the potential and close deletions.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone

Australia

IGO Limited operates as an exploration company. The Company explores and mines copper, ore, nickel, gold, and other mineral resources. IGO serves customers worldwide.

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IGO Ltd (IGO AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 1st): Commonw Bk Austr, Rio Tinto, Seven Group Hold, Wesfarmers, Igo

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Commonw Bk Austr, Rio Tinto, Seven Group Hold,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Should I Stay or Should IGO?

There are 3 stocks close to the deletion zone for the March rebal. IGO is also a passive sell from a global index in Feb. There will be a lot of...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

There are 3 deletions for the index in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 5% resulting in a one-way trade of A$99m. Shorts will look to cover...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone

There are 2 potential deletes and another 3 stocks that are close deletes for the MVIS AU Equal Weight Index. Just the capping changes back to...

Brian Freitas

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