Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>RBI raised its policy repo rate by 25bp to 5.5% this week, and changed its monetary stance from 'neutral' to 'calibrated tightening'. But RBI's FY27 inflation forecast rose just 20bp.</li>
<li>El Nino and the below-normal monsoon are cited as risks, but most of the increase in food inflation has been from animal proteins, not rain-dependent vegetables and cereals. </li>
<li>Foodgrain stocks of 105mn tonnes are 3-times the buffer norm, adequate to dampen cereal inflation through strategic stock releases. Inflation will likely undershoot RBI forecasts. Dec'26 hike: one &amp; done! </li>
</ul>


RBI raised its policy repo rate by 25bp to 5.5% this week, and changed its monetary stance from 'neutral' to 'calibrated tightening'. But RBI's FY27 inflation forecast rose just 20bp.
El Nino and the below-normal monsoon are cited as risks, but most of the increase in food inflation has been from animal proteins, not rain-dependent vegetables and cereals. 
Foodgrain stocks of 105mn tonnes are 3-times the buffer norm, adequate to dampen cereal inflation through strategic stock releases. Inflation will likely undershoot RBI forecasts. Dec'26 hike: one &amp; done! 


India: RBI Obliged to Tighten Amid Global Headwinds but Only One More Hike Likely

<ul>
<li>Goods exports grew 22.9%YoY in Jul-Aug'26, containing the merchandise deficit, while the services trade surplus continued widening. We expect the FY27 CAD to widen only marginally to 0.8% of GDP. </li>
<li>The fiscal deficit for Apr-Jul'26 was only 26.8% of the FY27 target, albeit helped by the earlier income tax filing deadline, which boosted income tax revenue by 96%YoY in Jul'26. </li>
<li>Corporate tax, CGST, customs and income tax revenue (12-month rolling sums) are all growing robustly, and likely will strengthen further. Expect FY27 fiscal deficit (FD) lower than 4.3%GDP target.  </li>
</ul>


Goods exports grew 22.9%YoY in Jul-Aug'26, containing the merchandise deficit, while the services trade surplus continued widening. We expect the FY27 CAD to widen only marginally to 0.8% of GDP. 
The fiscal deficit for Apr-Jul'26 was only 26.8% of the FY27 target, albeit helped by the earlier income tax filing deadline, which boosted income tax revenue by 96%YoY in Jul'26. 
Corporate tax, CGST, customs and income tax revenue (12-month rolling sums) are all growing robustly, and likely will strengthen further. Expect FY27 fiscal deficit (FD) lower than 4.3%GDP target.  


India Twin Deficit Watch: Export Strength to Keep CAD Low; Revenue Supports Lower FD

<ul>
<li>Unlike the consensus, we weren't surprised by the 8.2%YoY real GDP growth in Jul-Sep'25, as the sharp moderation in inflation dampened the GDP deflator too. </li>
<li>We retain our forecast of 9%YoY growth in Oct'25-Sep'26, led by stronger PCE after the cut in GST rates and likely boost to farm incomes from the strong monsoon-fed crop. </li>
<li>With CPI inflation far below the 2-6% RBI target, policy rates will need to steadily decline, boosting GFCF. We expect 8.5% RGDP growth in FY26, and 8.2% in FY27. </li>
</ul>


Unlike the consensus, we weren't surprised by the 8.2%YoY real GDP growth in Jul-Sep'25, as the sharp moderation in inflation dampened the GDP deflator too. 
We retain our forecast of 9%YoY growth in Oct'25-Sep'26, led by stronger PCE after the cut in GST rates and likely boost to farm incomes from the strong monsoon-fed crop. 
With CPI inflation far below the 2-6% RBI target, policy rates will need to steadily decline, boosting GFCF. We expect 8.5% RGDP growth in FY26, and 8.2% in FY27. 


India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct'25-Sep'26

<ul>
<li>11%YoY growth in GFCF enabled real GDP to grow 7.6% YoY in Q2FY24, well ahead of the 6.8% consensus. Manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining grew over 10%YoY in Jul-Sep'23. </li>
<li>Services should grow over 8%YoY in H2FY24 (in line with 26-year average). Manufacturing should grow 9%YoY, delivering 8%+ growth in H2FY24. Reform and productivity enable 8% growth in FY25. </li>
<li>The 12mma of the fiscal deficit fell to 5.8% of GDP in Oct'23, and should fall to 5.5% by Mar'24. This will crowd-in private investment, generating virtuous circle of growth.</li>
</ul>


11%YoY growth in GFCF enabled real GDP to grow 7.6% YoY in Q2FY24, well ahead of the 6.8% consensus. Manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining grew over 10%YoY in Jul-Sep'23. 
Services should grow over 8%YoY in H2FY24 (in line with 26-year average). Manufacturing should grow 9%YoY, delivering 8%+ growth in H2FY24. Reform and productivity enable 8% growth in FY25. 
The 12mma of the fiscal deficit fell to 5.8% of GDP in Oct'23, and should fall to 5.5% by Mar'24. This will crowd-in private investment, generating virtuous circle of growth.


India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

<ul>
<li>The new GDP series shows slightly less-strong but stabler growth over the last three years. Real GDP grew 7.8%YoY in Q3/FY26, and 7.6%YoY in Apr-Dec'26 led by 7.7%YoY PCE growth.</li>
<li>Manufacturing has been the standout performer in the new series, outpacing the much larger Services sector (which has also grown 10%+). Higher crude oil prices will erode RGDP/industrial growth. </li>
<li>Assuming war persists through Apr'26, crude prices are likely to be above US$100/bbl in Apr-Jun'26, averaging US$85/bbl in FY27. We expect RGDP growth of 7.2%YoY in Q4/FY26, 7% in FY27. </li>
</ul>


The new GDP series shows slightly less-strong but stabler growth over the last three years. Real GDP grew 7.8%YoY in Q3/FY26, and 7.6%YoY in Apr-Dec'26 led by 7.7%YoY PCE growth.
Manufacturing has been the standout performer in the new series, outpacing the much larger Services sector (which has also grown 10%+). Higher crude oil prices will erode RGDP/industrial growth. 
Assuming war persists through Apr'26, crude prices are likely to be above US$100/bbl in Apr-Jun'26, averaging US$85/bbl in FY27. We expect RGDP growth of 7.2%YoY in Q4/FY26, 7% in FY27. 


India: Revised GDP Series' Strong but Stabler Growth; but Oil to Hurt in FY27

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India: RBI Obliged to Tighten Amid Global Headwinds but Only One More Hike Likely

RBI's hawkish tone is overdone. Inflation will undershoot RBI forecasts, as animal proteins (not rain-dependent veg/cereals) are the main inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Export Strength to Keep CAD Low; Revenue Supports Lower FD

Depreciated INR boosted exports (+22.9%YoY in Jul-Aug'26). Despite oil price surge, FY27 CAD likely to edge up only to 0.8% of GDP. Strong direct &...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct'25-Sep'26

Expect real GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26 and 8.2% in FY27 as 2pp lower GST and strong farm incomes boost private consumption, while low inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

India stays world's fastest-growing economy with 7.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1FY24. Exports & GFCF will enable >8%YoY growth in H2. Labour reform to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Revised GDP Series' Strong but Stabler Growth; but Oil to Hurt in FY27

New GDP series shows stable accelerating growth, led by manufacturing. War to keep crude prices above $100/bbl in Apr-Jun'26. RGDP growth expected...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: RBI Obliged to Tighten Amid Global Headwinds but Only One More Hike Likely

RBI's hawkish tone is overdone. Inflation will undershoot RBI forecasts, as animal proteins (not rain-dependent veg/cereals) are the main inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Export Strength to Keep CAD Low; Revenue Supports Lower FD

Depreciated INR boosted exports (+22.9%YoY in Jul-Aug'26). Despite oil price surge, FY27 CAD likely to edge up only to 0.8% of GDP. Strong direct &...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct'25-Sep'26

​Expect real GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26 and 8.2% in FY27 as 2pp lower GST and strong farm incomes boost private consumption, while low inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

India stays world's fastest-growing economy with 7.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1FY24. Exports & GFCF will enable >8%YoY growth in H2. Labour reform to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Revised GDP Series' Strong but Stabler Growth; but Oil to Hurt in FY27

​New GDP series shows stable accelerating growth, led by manufacturing. War to keep crude prices above $100/bbl in Apr-Jun'26. RGDP growth expected...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Expect real GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26 and 8.2% in FY27 as 2pp lower GST and strong farm incomes boost private consumption, while low inflation...

New GDP series shows stable accelerating growth, led by manufacturing. War to keep crude prices above $100/bbl in Apr-Jun'26. RGDP growth expected...