Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. </li>
<li>Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb'25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.</li>
<li>With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec'25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.</li>
</ul>


Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. 
Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb'25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.
With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec'25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.


India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

<ul>
<li>India's exports (merchandise+invisible) topped US$1trn in 2024, up over 36-fold in 33 years. This has been crucial to bolstering the economy, and is likely to strengthen as Chinese exports recede. </li>
<li>CAD likely moderated to 0.7% of GDP in FY25, and will shrink further in FY26, helped by lower oil prices and broad-based export recovery, as oil-refinery shutdowns end. </li>
<li>Fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP in the 12months to Feb'25 (below official estimate of 4.8%). With tax revenue strong, the FY26 fiscal deficit should shrink to 4% of GDP.  </li>
</ul>


India's exports (merchandise+invisible) topped US$1trn in 2024, up over 36-fold in 33 years. This has been crucial to bolstering the economy, and is likely to strengthen as Chinese exports recede. 
CAD likely moderated to 0.7% of GDP in FY25, and will shrink further in FY26, helped by lower oil prices and broad-based export recovery, as oil-refinery shutdowns end. 
Fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP in the 12months to Feb'25 (below official estimate of 4.8%). With tax revenue strong, the FY26 fiscal deficit should shrink to 4% of GDP.  


India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25bp for the second consecutive time, and shifted from a neutral to an accommodative monetary stance. </li>
<li>With inflation likely to moderate sharply to 3%YoY in FY26, we expect another 100bp of rate cuts by Dec'25, taking the repo rate down to 5% in Dec/25. </li>
<li>Real GDP growth averaged 8.2% in FY22-FY25. Lower income tax and interest rates are set to bolster PCE and investment, enabling real GDP growth to rebound to 8% in FY26. </li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25bp for the second consecutive time, and shifted from a neutral to an accommodative monetary stance. 
With inflation likely to moderate sharply to 3%YoY in FY26, we expect another 100bp of rate cuts by Dec'25, taking the repo rate down to 5% in Dec/25. 
Real GDP growth averaged 8.2% in FY22-FY25. Lower income tax and interest rates are set to bolster PCE and investment, enabling real GDP growth to rebound to 8% in FY26. 


India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation receded to 3.6%YoY in Feb'25, as big MoM declines in vegetable prices brought F&amp;B inflation down to 3.8%YoY. Tame food inflation will allow 3.2%YoY headline inflation in Apr-Dec'25. </li>
<li>Energy deflation will end in Mar'25, and non-food inflation will edge up marginally, but food inflation likely to be lower than 3.5%YoY for the next half-year amid tame vegetable inflation.</li>
<li>Policy rate to decline 25bp at each of the next 3 MPC meetings, and another 25bp by Dec'25. Normalized interest rates will enable RGDP's return to 8% growth in FY26. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation receded to 3.6%YoY in Feb'25, as big MoM declines in vegetable prices brought F&amp;B inflation down to 3.8%YoY. Tame food inflation will allow 3.2%YoY headline inflation in Apr-Dec'25. 
Energy deflation will end in Mar'25, and non-food inflation will edge up marginally, but food inflation likely to be lower than 3.5%YoY for the next half-year amid tame vegetable inflation.
Policy rate to decline 25bp at each of the next 3 MPC meetings, and another 25bp by Dec'25. Normalized interest rates will enable RGDP's return to 8% growth in FY26. 


India: Inflation Likely Averaging 3.2%YoY in Apr-Dec'25 Will Allow 100bp of Rate Cuts

<ul>
<li>The RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jan-Mar'25, but a 15.7%MoM decline in vegetable prices in Jan'25 enabled headline CPI inflation to ease to 4.3%YoY. </li>
<li>Our forecast of 4.1%YoY inflation for Jan-Mar'25 remains on track. With food inflation set to recede, we expect CPI inflation below 4%YoY in Apr-Sep'25, enabling 75bp of further rate cuts. </li>
<li>If the SW Monsoon in Jun-Sep'25 is normal or better, another 25bp rate cut is likely in Dec'25, taking the repo rate to 5.25% by the end of 2025. </li>
</ul>


The RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jan-Mar'25, but a 15.7%MoM decline in vegetable prices in Jan'25 enabled headline CPI inflation to ease to 4.3%YoY. 
Our forecast of 4.1%YoY inflation for Jan-Mar'25 remains on track. With food inflation set to recede, we expect CPI inflation below 4%YoY in Apr-Sep'25, enabling 75bp of further rate cuts. 
If the SW Monsoon in Jun-Sep'25 is normal or better, another 25bp rate cut is likely in Dec'25, taking the repo rate to 5.25% by the end of 2025. 


India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan'25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

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India Treasury (INDIA GOVT)

India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Inflation Likely Averaging 3.2%YoY in Apr-Dec'25 Will Allow 100bp of Rate Cuts

Feb'25 CPI inflation at 3.6%YoY due to lower food prices, expected to stay below 3.5%YoY for next 6 months. Policy rate to decline by 100bp in Apr...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan'25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

Jan'25 inflation in line with our forecast but already lower than RBI forecast for Jan-Mar'25 quarter. We expect up to 100bp of further rate cuts...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

​RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

​India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

​RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Inflation Likely Averaging 3.2%YoY in Apr-Dec'25 Will Allow 100bp of Rate Cuts

​Feb'25 CPI inflation at 3.6%YoY due to lower food prices, expected to stay below 3.5%YoY for next 6 months. Policy rate to decline by 100bp in Apr...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan'25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

Jan'25 inflation in line with our forecast but already lower than ​RBI forecast for Jan-Mar'25 quarter. We expect up to 100bp of further rate cuts...

Prasenjit K. Basu

RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...

Feb'25 CPI inflation at 3.6%YoY due to lower food prices, expected to stay below 3.5%YoY for next 6 months. Policy rate to decline by 100bp in Apr...

Jan'25 inflation in line with our forecast but already lower than RBI forecast for Jan-Mar'25 quarter. We expect up to 100bp of further rate cuts...