Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. Then came the market consultation in August.</li>
<li>SEBI has now confirmed the changes along with the timeline for capping changes to the largest stocks in the index.</li>
<li>The changes could commence in December and continue till March. The adds will take place in December and weight changes for the largest stocks will take place in 4 tranches.</li>
</ul>


In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. Then came the market consultation in August.
SEBI has now confirmed the changes along with the timeline for capping changes to the largest stocks in the index.
The changes could commence in December and continue till March. The adds will take place in December and weight changes for the largest stocks will take place in 4 tranches.


NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes to Result in Big Flows

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18110:1" rel="noopener">Indian Bank (INBK IN)'s </a>management has aggressively revised its full-year GNPA guidance down to below 2% from previous targets, driven by a best-in-class NNPA ratio of 0.16% in Q2 FY26.</li>
<li>The sharp reduction in credit costs, management's confident guidance is amplifying earnings, driving a high RoE of nearly 20%, and attracting substantial, yet still value-seeking, DII flows.</li>
<li>With asset quality structurally de-risked and the core business growing robustly through high-yielding RAM segments, Indian Bank presents a compelling re-rating candidate.</li>
</ul>



Indian Bank (INBK IN)'s management has aggressively revised its full-year GNPA guidance down to below 2% from previous targets, driven by a best-in-class NNPA ratio of 0.16% in Q2 FY26.
The sharp reduction in credit costs, management's confident guidance is amplifying earnings, driving a high RoE of nearly 20%, and attracting substantial, yet still value-seeking, DII flows.
With asset quality structurally de-risked and the core business growing robustly through high-yielding RAM segments, Indian Bank presents a compelling re-rating candidate.


Indian Bank: The Unrecognized Turnaround Story in PSU Banking

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Petroleum, Adani Enterprises, GMR Airports.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Petroleum, Adani Enterprises, GMR Airports.


MS-India Index Earning Revision (Sep): SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Indian government is actively considering a new wave of PSB consolidation, headlined by a potential merger of Union Bank of India and Bank of India, alongside selective privatisation.</li>
<li>This signals a strategic shift from post-NPA crisis management to building globally competitive banks, which could fundamentally alter the sector's competitive landscape and credit capacity.</li>
<li>With PSBs on their strongest footing in a decade, this consolidation round has a higher chance of success, forcing investors to re-evaluate the long-term structure of Indian banking.</li>
</ul>


The Indian government is actively considering a new wave of PSB consolidation, headlined by a potential merger of Union Bank of India and Bank of India, alongside selective privatisation.
This signals a strategic shift from post-NPA crisis management to building globally competitive banks, which could fundamentally alter the sector's competitive landscape and credit capacity.
With PSBs on their strongest footing in a decade, this consolidation round has a higher chance of success, forcing investors to re-evaluate the long-term structure of Indian banking.


Thematic Report on PSB Consolidation 2.0: UBI-BoI Merger Signals India's Push for Global-Scale Banks

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

India

Indian Bank is a major public sector bank in India, offering a comprehensive range of banking and financial solutions including savings and current accounts, loans for various needs, credit and debit cards, insurance, and digital banking services. The bank also provides specialized services in retail, corporate, and agricultural banking. It is headquartered in Chennai, India, and was founded on August 15, 1907.

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Indian Bank (INBK IN)

NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes to Result in Big Flows

The methodology and capping changes for the Nifty Bank Index will be implemented in 4 tranches, likely ending in March. The flows are big and the...

Brian Freitas

Indian Bank: The Unrecognized Turnaround Story in PSU Banking

Indian Bank's management revises full-year GNPA guidance below 2%, driving high RoE and attracting value-seeking DII flows, making it a compelling...

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MS-India Index Earning Revision (Sep): SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Thematic Report on PSB Consolidation 2.0: UBI-BoI Merger Signals India's Push for Global-Scale Banks

Indian government mulls PSB consolidation with potential Union Bank of India and Bank of India merger, signaling shift to building globally...

Sudarshan Bhandari

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes to Result in Big Flows

The methodology and capping changes for the Nifty Bank Index will be implemented in 4 tranches, likely ending in March. The flows are big and the...

Brian Freitas

Indian Bank: The Unrecognized Turnaround Story in PSU Banking

​Indian Bank's management revises full-year GNPA guidance below 2%, driving high RoE and attracting value-seeking DII flows, making it a compelling...

Nimish Maheshwari

MS-India Index Earning Revision (Sep): SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Thematic Report on PSB Consolidation 2.0: UBI-BoI Merger Signals India's Push for Global-Scale Banks

​Indian government mulls PSB consolidation with potential Union Bank of India and Bank of India merger, signaling shift to building globally...

Sudarshan Bhandari

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Indian Bank's management revises full-year GNPA guidance below 2%, driving high RoE and attracting value-seeking DII flows, making it a compelling...

Indian government mulls PSB consolidation with potential Union Bank of India and Bank of India merger, signaling shift to building globally...