Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Indian Oil Corporation: Our ADD rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), with a target price of INR 95, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capex</li><li>IOCL’s reported EBITDA stood at INR 153bn (+30% YoY, +4.3x QoQ), while the APAT stood at INR 101bn, coming in well above our estimate</li><li>The beat was largely on account of better-than-expected performance from the refining and petchem segments.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Oil Corporation: Our ADD rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), with a target price of INR 95, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capexIOCL’s reported EBITDA stood at INR 153bn (+30% YoY, +4.3x QoQ), while the APAT stood at INR 101bn, coming in well above our estimateThe beat was largely on account of better-than-expected performance from the refining and petchem segments.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, CreditAccess Grameen

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

<ul><li>We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by +2% YoY, +10% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due to higher demand for petroleum products, higher refining throughput and GRMs</li><li>Upstream segment earnings are impacted by ~18/8% YoY/QoQ decline in crude oil prices and lower production, despite a YoY increase in domestic APM gas realisations</li><li>We expect lower gas volumes for City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies, owing to high retail CNG prices and spot LNG prices.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by +2% YoY, +10% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due to higher demand for petroleum products, higher refining throughput and GRMsUpstream segment earnings are impacted by ~18/8% YoY/QoQ decline in crude oil prices and lower production, despite a YoY increase in domestic APM gas realisationsWe expect lower gas volumes for City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies, owing to high retail CNG prices and spot LNG prices.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oil and Gas: Improvement for downstream segment

<ul><li>NTPC: Generation/sales of the unit increased significantly by 10.4/12.2% YoY to 85.5/80.2bn units in Q2FY23, led by strong power demand</li><li>PAF also improved for both coal/gas in Q2 to 93.7/92.8%, vs 85.4/81.6% YoY, led by better fuel availability</li><li>Accordingly, under-recovery also declined to INR2.0bn for Q2FY23 vs INR5.0bn QoQ</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NTPC: Generation/sales of the unit increased significantly by 10.4/12.2% YoY to 85.5/80.2bn units in Q2FY23, led by strong power demandPAF also improved for both coal/gas in Q2 to 93.7/92.8%, vs 85.4/81.6% YoY, led by better fuel availabilityAccordingly, under-recovery also declined to INR2.0bn for Q2FY23 vs INR5.0bn QoQContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: NTPC, Indian Oil Corporation, SBI Cards and Payment Services

India

Indian Oil Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil, in addition to manufacturing petroleum & petroleum products. The Company's products include lubricating oils, liquid petroleum gas, aviation turbine fuels, greases, wax, bitumen and asphalt. Indian Oil Corporation has retail outlets throughout India. The greatest majority shareholding in the Company is held by Indian Government.

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Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, CreditAccess Grameen

Our ADD rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), with a target price of INR 95, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins

HDFC Securities

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Oil and Gas: Improvement for downstream segment

We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by +2% YoY, +10% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: NTPC, Indian Oil Corporation, SBI Cards and Payment Services

NTPC: Generation/sales of the unit increased significantly by 10.4/12.2% YoY to 85.5/80.2bn units in Q2FY23, led by strong power demand

HDFC Securities

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