Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a>'s stock prices have taken a beating this year, but they still make it into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum (BPCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> will be out of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> but will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN)</a> will be added to a global index on 28 February and will then be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in March.</li>
</ul>



Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)'s stock prices have taken a beating this year, but they still make it into the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in March.

Bharat Petroleum (BPCL IN) and Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) will be out of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) but will be added to the NSE Nifty Next50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). 

Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) will be added to a global index on 28 February and will then be added to the NSE Nifty Next50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.


NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Zomato, JioFin Slide In as BPCL, Britannia Drop Out; US$3.3bn Trade

<ul>
<li>There are 17 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 15.9bn (US$184m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>There are many stocks with opposing flows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a> trackers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> will have inflows from multiple index trackers over the next month.</li>
</ul>


There are 17 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 15.9bn (US$184m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
There are many stocks with opposing flows from NSE Nifty Next 50 Index trackers. Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) will have inflows from multiple index trackers over the next month.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 17 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.</li>
<li>The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.</li>
<li>Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.
The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.
Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.


India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Indian Railway Catering & Tourism / Equity Bottom-Up

Indian Railway Catering & Tourism (IRCTC IN)

<ul><li>IRCTC’s operational performance was broadly in-line with our estimate with EBITDA margin of 34.0% (PLe 33.0%).</li><li>EBIT margin of internet ticketing was at a 7-quarter high of 84.7% presumably led by an improvement in yield (realization per ticket was Rs20) which could be a function of better product mix (higher share of AC or non-UPI tickets).</li><li>As e-ticketing penetration has reached ~87%, we expect non-convenience pie to drive the revenue growth in internet ticketing division.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

IRCTC’s operational performance was broadly in-line with our estimate with EBITDA margin of 34.0% (PLe 33.0%).EBIT margin of internet ticketing was at a 7-quarter high of 84.7% presumably led by an improvement in yield (realization per ticket was Rs20) which could be a function of better product mix (higher share of AC or non-UPI tickets).As e-ticketing penetration has reached ~87%, we expect non-convenience pie to drive the revenue growth in internet ticketing division.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC IN) - Margin in Internet Ticketing Improves

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

India

Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Ltd. (IRCTC) is an Indian public sector undertaking that provides ticketing, catering, and tourism services for the state-owned Indian Railways. It is the sole authorized entity for online railway ticketing, on-board catering, and packaged drinking water (Rail Neer) services for Indian Railways. The company offers diverse tourism products, including domestic and international tour packages. IRCTC was established on September 27, 1999, and is headquartered in New Delhi, India.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Indian Railway Catering & Tourism (IRCTC IN)

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Zomato, JioFin Slide In as BPCL, Britannia Drop Out; US$3.3bn Trade

Zomato and JioFin have taken a beating this year but make it into the NIFTY. BPCL and Britannia have sold off and will be deleted. Hyundai India is...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 17 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 17 changes for the index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR15.9bn. There are many stocks...

Brian Freitas

India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

The March changes for the Nifty indices will be announced tomorrow. There are changes forecast for most indices with large AUM. Round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC IN) - Margin in Internet Ticketing Improves

EBIT margin of internet ticketing was at a 7-quarter high of 84.7% presumably led by an improvement in yield (realization per ticket was Rs20)...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

There could be 15 changes in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% and one-way trade is INR 7.65bn. With over US$40bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)