Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Indika Energy's FY 2024 results were weak as expected in our view, due to significant challenges amid declining coal prices, with no contributions from its investments in non-coal businesses so far.</li>
<li>The balance sheet worsened significantly during the year.</li>
<li>That said, liquidity remained sound.</li>
</ul>


Indika Energy's FY 2024 results were weak as expected in our view, due to significant challenges amid declining coal prices, with no contributions from its investments in non-coal businesses so far.
The balance sheet worsened significantly during the year.
That said, liquidity remained sound.


Indika Energy - Earnings Flash - FY 2024 Results

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Indika Energy, China Hongqiao, Greenko Energy</li>
<li>In the US, advance retail sales came in below estimates at 0.2% m-o-m (0.6% e / -1.2% revised p) in February. Moreover, the January figure was revised downwards to negative 1.2% (from -0.9%), the lowest since July 2021. Seven of the retail report's 13 categories posted declines, notably motor vehicles, gasoline sales, as well as spending at restaurants and bars.</li>
<li>Retail sales (excluding auto and gas) rose 0.5% m-o-m (0.4% e / -0.8% p), while the retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP) was up 1.0% m-o-m (0.4% e / -1.0% revised p), supported by a rebound in e-commerce activity.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Indika Energy, China Hongqiao, Greenko Energy
In the US, advance retail sales came in below estimates at 0.2% m-o-m (0.6% e / -1.2% revised p) in February. Moreover, the January figure was revised downwards to negative 1.2% (from -0.9%), the lowest since July 2021. Seven of the retail report's 13 categories posted declines, notably motor vehicles, gasoline sales, as well as spending at restaurants and bars.
Retail sales (excluding auto and gas) rose 0.5% m-o-m (0.4% e / -0.8% p), while the retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP) was up 1.0% m-o-m (0.4% e / -1.0% revised p), supported by a rebound in e-commerce activity.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Leonard Law, CFA

<ul>
<li>Front-end UST yields declined on Friday, unwinding part of the jump in yields following the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST fell 4 bps to 3.57%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was down 2 bps at 4.08%. Equities climbed, supported by optimism over corporate earnings.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.3% to 6,840, while the Nasdaq rose 0.6% to 23,725. </li>
</ul>


Front-end UST yields declined on Friday, unwinding part of the jump in yields following the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
The yield on the 2Y UST fell 4 bps to 3.57%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was down 2 bps at 4.08%. Equities climbed, supported by optimism over corporate earnings.
The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.3% to 6,840, while the Nasdaq rose 0.6% to 23,725. 


<ul>
<li>US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.</li>
<li>US Treasuries steepened, with the 2Y yield shrinking by 5 bps but the 30Y gaining 3 bps as investors slightly curbed their bets on US interest-rate cuts this year given factory activity data, while keeping the inflation expectation further out.</li>
</ul>


US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies.
The S&amp;P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.
US Treasuries steepened, with the 2Y yield shrinking by 5 bps but the 30Y gaining 3 bps as investors slightly curbed their bets on US interest-rate cuts this year given factory activity data, while keeping the inflation expectation further out.


Indonesia

PT Indika Energy Tbk is an energy company. The Company provides energy services, energy resources and infrastructure, primarily in the areas of coal production, engineering, procurement and construction services and power generation services.

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Indika Energy (INDY IJ)

Indika Energy - Earnings Flash - FY 2024 Results

Indika Energy's FY 2024 results were weak as expected in our view, due to significant challenges amid declining coal prices, with no contributions...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Indika Energy, China Hongqiao, Greenko Energy

Lucror Analytics

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

The yield on the 2Y UST fell 4 bps to 3.57%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was down 2 bps at 4.08%. Equities climbed, supported by optimism over...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies. The S&P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while...

Lucror Analytics

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