Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Barry Diller’s People Inc. is offering to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-resorts-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16227:1" rel="noopener">MGM Resorts International (MGM US)</a> at US$48.30/share. People Inc., formerly known as IAC, owns ~26.1% stake in MGM Resorts.</li>
<li>MGM Resorts owns 55.95% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China (2282 HK)</a>. A successful Offer should require People Inc to make a downstream Offer for MGM China; unless its obtains an SFC waiver.</li>
<li>It should also kick off a regulatory vetting process by the Macau government on MGM China's 10-year gaming concession.</li>
</ul>


Barry Diller’s People Inc. is offering to buy MGM Resorts International (MGM US) at US$48.30/share. People Inc., formerly known as IAC, owns ~26.1% stake in MGM Resorts.
MGM Resorts owns 55.95% in MGM China (2282 HK). A successful Offer should require People Inc to make a downstream Offer for MGM China; unless its obtains an SFC waiver.
It should also kick off a regulatory vetting process by the Macau government on MGM China's 10-year gaming concession.


Diller's Offer For MGM Resort Should Trigger A Downstream Offer For MGM China

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

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<ul>
 <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-limited">MGM China</a> is demonstrating exceptional execution, significantly increasing its Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) market share in the recovering Macau market, from 9.5% in 2019 to a forecasted 16.1% in 2025.</li>
 <li>The company maintains high profitability, with a robust EBITDA margin of approximately 28.8%, despite intense competition. This financial strength supports its ability to grow dividends.</li>
 <li>The stock trades at a compelling valuation discount to its primary peers, with a forward EV/EBITDA multiple nearly half that of competitors like Sands China, presenting a potential value opportunity for investors.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
MGM China is demonstrating exceptional execution, significantly increasing its Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) market share in the recovering Macau market, from 9.5% in 2019 to a forecasted 16.1% in 2025.
  The company maintains high profitability, with a robust EBITDA margin of approximately 28.8%, despite intense competition. This financial strength supports its ability to grow dividends.
  The stock trades at a compelling valuation discount to its primary peers, with a forward EV/EBITDA multiple nearly half that of competitors like Sands China, presenting a potential value opportunity for investors.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>GGR share rose from 9.5% (2019) to 16.1% (2025) — gains registered even during COVID, when the market itself was collapsing. This is structural execution, not cyclical recovery.</li>
<li>EBITDA margin held at 28.8% through three consecutive years of double-digit revenue growth — growth without the margin trade-off visible at Sands and Wynn.</li>
<li>Bullish — Top Conviction, FV HK$15.00. At 4.6x FY2027E EV/EBITDA. The capacity-ceiling concern is priced in; the 198-table 2022 renewal precedent is the counter-argument.</li>
</ul>


GGR share rose from 9.5% (2019) to 16.1% (2025) — gains registered even during COVID, when the market itself was collapsing. This is structural execution, not cyclical recovery.
EBITDA margin held at 28.8% through three consecutive years of double-digit revenue growth — growth without the margin trade-off visible at Sands and Wynn.
Bullish — Top Conviction, FV HK$15.00. At 4.6x FY2027E EV/EBITDA. The capacity-ceiling concern is priced in; the 198-table 2022 renewal precedent is the counter-argument.


MGM China (2282 HK) — The Smallest Footprint, the Cheapest Multiple — Top Conviction

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> broke out to a new YTD high.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.

Sands China (1928 HK) had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.


China Feihe (6186 HK) broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  Techtronic Industries (669 HK) broke out to a new YTD high.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

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Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 1 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-resorts-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16227:1" rel="noopener">MGM Resorts International (MGM US)</a> confirmed that it had received an offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iac-inc-people-incorporated" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:754:1" rel="noopener">People Incorporated (IAC) (IAC US)</a> to acquire it for US$48.30 per share. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China (2282 HK)</a> rose 7% due to the near-term possibility that the acquisition could trigger a mandatory general offer (downstream offer) and the long-term possibility of a privatisation offer.   </li>
<li>The triggering of an MGO based on the chain principle is not guaranteed, and the potential offer would be well below the last close. Nevertheless, MGM China’s valuation remains undemanding.</li>
</ul>


On 1 June, MGM Resorts International (MGM US) confirmed that it had received an offer from People Incorporated (IAC) (IAC US) to acquire it for US$48.30 per share. 

MGM China (2282 HK) rose 7% due to the near-term possibility that the acquisition could trigger a mandatory general offer (downstream offer) and the long-term possibility of a privatisation offer.   
The triggering of an MGO based on the chain principle is not guaranteed, and the potential offer would be well below the last close. Nevertheless, MGM China’s valuation remains undemanding.


MGM China (2282 HK): An MGO Based on the Chain Principle Is Not a Sure Thing

Macau

MGM China Holdings Limited is an investment holding company that develops, owns, and operates gaming and lodging resorts in the Greater China region. The company operates casino games of chance, hotel, and resort facilities, and provides hotel management services, notably through its MGM Macau and MGM Cotai properties. It was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Macau.

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MGM China (2282 HK)

Diller's Offer For MGM Resort Should Trigger A Downstream Offer For MGM China

If you were expecting some sort of uplift via a downstream Offer for MGM China, think again. In terms of pricing for MGM Resorts - I can see...

David Blennerhassett

Primer: MGM China (2282 HK) - Aug 2026

MGM China is demonstrating exceptional execution, significantly increasing its Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) market share in the recovering Macau...

αSK Primers

MGM China (2282 HK) — The Smallest Footprint, the Cheapest Multiple — Top Conviction

GGR share growth and stable EBITDA margin show structural execution, not just cyclical recovery. Bullish outlook with FV HK$15.00 at 4.6x FY2027E...

Mo Aziz

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Hong Kong tech sector is key to lead the market higher. Lower volatility & decreased short selling volume provide tailwinds for HSTECH index. Sands...

David Mudd

MGM China (2282 HK): An MGO Based on the Chain Principle Is Not a Sure Thing

The triggering of an MGO based on the chain principle is not guaranteed, and the potential offer would be well below the last close. Nevertheless,...

Arun George

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Diller's Offer For MGM Resort Should Trigger A Downstream Offer For MGM China

If you were expecting some sort of uplift via a downstream Offer for MGM China, think again. In terms of pricing for MGM Resorts - I can see...

David Blennerhassett

Primer: MGM China (2282 HK) - Aug 2026

MGM China is demonstrating exceptional execution, significantly increasing its Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) market share in the recovering Macau...

αSK Primers

MGM China (2282 HK) — The Smallest Footprint, the Cheapest Multiple — Top Conviction

​GGR share growth and stable EBITDA margin show structural execution, not just cyclical recovery. Bullish outlook with FV HK$15.00 at 4.6x FY2027E...

Mo Aziz

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Hong Kong tech sector is key to lead the market higher. Lower volatility & decreased short selling volume provide tailwinds for HSTECH index. Sands...

David Mudd

MGM China (2282 HK): An MGO Based on the Chain Principle Is Not a Sure Thing

The triggering of an MGO based on the chain principle is not guaranteed, and the potential offer would be well below the last close. Nevertheless,...

Arun George

GGR share growth and stable EBITDA margin show structural execution, not just cyclical recovery. Bullish outlook with FV HK$15.00 at 4.6x FY2027E...