Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a></strong>'s simple ratio (INDF/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)</strong></a>) is at a seven-year-plus high, and the implied stub a three-year high. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the Indofood <em>and </em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> </strong>are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)'s simple ratio (INDF/Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)) is at a seven-year-plus high, and the implied stub a three-year high. 
Preceding my comments on the Indofood and First Pacific Co (142 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

Independent Analyst

Niklas Olausson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The El Nino is progressing, albeit slowly, in a volatile fashion. There is no significant impact yet on Southeast Asia's oil palm areas although YTD, rainfall is already lower YoY. </li>
<li>For edible oils, heat waves and drought continue to underpin elevated yield risks, with current focus on soybeans (U.S. and China), rapeseed (Canada) and olive oil (the Mediterranean.) </li>
<li>The Plantation sector and CPO price have gained some traction, but it is early days. Maintain a bullish stance. Report contains new data on earnings mixes, maturity profiles and yields.   </li>
</ul>


The El Nino is progressing, albeit slowly, in a volatile fashion. There is no significant impact yet on Southeast Asia's oil palm areas although YTD, rainfall is already lower YoY. 
For edible oils, heat waves and drought continue to underpin elevated yield risks, with current focus on soybeans (U.S. and China), rapeseed (Canada) and olive oil (the Mediterranean.) 
The Plantation sector and CPO price have gained some traction, but it is early days. Maintain a bullish stance. Report contains new data on earnings mixes, maturity profiles and yields.   


Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Cisarua Mountain Dairy / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.</li>
<li>It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. </li>
<li>In our previous notes, links <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cisarua-mountain-dairy-cimory-ipo-the-negatives-losing-market-share-margin-sustainability" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cisarua-mountain-dairy-cimory-ipo-the-negatives-losing-market-share-margin-sustainability" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>,  we spoke about the various aspects of the deal. In we will do a peer comparison and talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.
It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. 
In our previous notes, links here and here,  we spoke about the various aspects of the deal. In we will do a peer comparison and talk about valuations.


Cisarua Mountain Dairy  (Cimory) IPO - Giving It the Benefit of Margin Doubts

<div>
<p>A double-dose of StubWorld this week ...</p>
</div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a>'s NAV widens as 80.5%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-t" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener">Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)</a> recently outperforms, yet INDF still remains a cheap(er) proxy into ICBP. </p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Preceding my comments on Indofood are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


A double-dose of StubWorld this week ...



Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)'s NAV widens as 80.5%-held Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ) recently outperforms, yet INDF still remains a cheap(er) proxy into ICBP. 



Preceding my comments on Indofood are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

Singapore Small-Caps with Significant Institutional Inflow in 2019 

Singapore

Indofood Agri Resources Limited is an integrated agribusiness company. The Company and its subsidiaries are involved in research and development, oil palm seed breeding, oil palm cultivation and milling. Indofood Agri Resources also refines, brands and markets cooking oil, margarine, shortening and other palm oil products.

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Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP)

StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

Tricky trade. I'd unwind any stub here purely on optics. The pushback is the stub ops are outperforming. I'd be inclined to go outright long near...

David Blennerhassett

Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish

The El Nino is progressing slowly, but for edible oils, heat waves around the world continue to elevate near-term yield risks. Maintain bullish...

Niklas Olausson

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO - Giving It the Benefit of Margin Doubts

PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.

Sumeet Singh

StubWorld: Momentum With Indofood CBP

A 40% discount to NAV is wide for what is largely a single stock Holdco. Should ICBP continue to outperform here, I'd recommend a long/short on a...

David Blennerhassett

Singapore Small-Caps with Significant Institutional Inflow in 2019

Singapore’s Small-Cap Stocks performed in-line with stocks of the same market capitalisations across Asia in 2019. More than 160...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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