ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener">Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)</a> has weathered the worst of higher raw material prices and is now seeing the benefits of lower input costs, benefiting margins.</li>
<li>The company is a core beneficiary of pre-election spending as its products are often given as gifts during campaigning. ICBP is also seeing strong performance in its export markets.</li>
<li>ICBP should increasingly be seen as an emerging market staples player, with globally recognised brands such as Indomie and Chitato. Valuations do not reflect this.</li>
</ul>



Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ) has weathered the worst of higher raw material prices and is now seeing the benefits of lower input costs, benefiting margins.
The company is a core beneficiary of pre-election spending as its products are often given as gifts during campaigning. ICBP is also seeing strong performance in its export markets.
ICBP should increasingly be seen as an emerging market staples player, with globally recognised brands such as Indomie and Chitato. Valuations do not reflect this.


Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ) - FMCG On Track at Home and Abroad

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayora-indah-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15131:1" rel="noopener">Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ)</a> saw a significant positive surge in profitability from lower raw material prices and lower operating costs in 3Q2023, which suggests it will beat its FY2023 guidance.</li>
<li>The company continues to launch new variants in both biscuits and beverages with a slant towards premiumisation and is also more aggressively attacking export markets, where its brands are strong.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayora-indah-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15131:1" rel="noopener">Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ)</a> is expanding factory capacity to fuel growth in 2024 but should also benefit from pre-election spending from 4Q2023. Valuations look attractive versus historical comparisons.</li>
</ul>



Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) saw a significant positive surge in profitability from lower raw material prices and lower operating costs in 3Q2023, which suggests it will beat its FY2023 guidance.
The company continues to launch new variants in both biscuits and beverages with a slant towards premiumisation and is also more aggressively attacking export markets, where its brands are strong.

Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) is expanding factory capacity to fuel growth in 2024 but should also benefit from pre-election spending from 4Q2023. Valuations look attractive versus historical comparisons.


Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) - Classy Biscuits and Beverages

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM)</a> shares are down 18% on the back of FY22 results which revealed a net loss of PHP13 billion mainly due to a large impairment charge.</li>
<li>While softening demand in meat alternatives is a headwind, Monde should benefit from the tailwinds of market share gains (in APAC BFB) and margin improvement (easing cost inflation).</li>
<li>The valuation is undemanding (SOTP valuation of PHP10.21 per share) and will prove attractive to investors with a longer-term investment horizon.</li>
</ul>



Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM) shares are down 18% on the back of FY22 results which revealed a net loss of PHP13 billion mainly due to a large impairment charge.
While softening demand in meat alternatives is a headwind, Monde should benefit from the tailwinds of market share gains (in APAC BFB) and margin improvement (easing cost inflation).
The valuation is undemanding (SOTP valuation of PHP10.21 per share) and will prove attractive to investors with a longer-term investment horizon.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Prabowo looks to have scored a resounding victory in Indonesia's Presidential election, according to quick count results, with around 58% of the vote, which is positive from a visibility perspective.</li>
<li>Initial reaction suggests continuity from Jokowi's legacy, with concerns centred around potentially nationalistic policies and increased government borrowing in the future, which may pressurise Indonesia's budgetary position. </li>
<li>We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set on driving higher GDP growth next year.</li>
</ul>


Prabowo looks to have scored a resounding victory in Indonesia's Presidential election, according to quick count results, with around 58% of the vote, which is positive from a visibility perspective.
Initial reaction suggests continuity from Jokowi's legacy, with concerns centred around potentially nationalistic policies and increased government borrowing in the future, which may pressurise Indonesia's budgetary position. 
We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set on driving higher GDP growth next year.


Indonesia's Election - When the Music's Over?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.</li>
<li>The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.</li>
<li>There have been huge inflows into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the NIFTY family of indices, Nikkei 225, STAR50, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.
The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.
There have been huge inflows into the CSI 300 Index ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

Indonesia

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk provides a wide range of food products. The Company is a total food solutions company with operations in all stages of food manufacturing from the production of raw materials and their processing through to consumer products on the retailer's shelf.

Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)