External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Global long-end yields are on the rise, reflecting shifting growth expectation. Ongoing recovery in global M2 should provide a cushion.</li><li>Domestic dual-policy buffers would underpin counter cyclical, with the govt will release economic stimulus packages and BI’ recent rate cut.</li><li>The BRI MSME Index signals continued moderation, with slower growth pace driven by sustained pressure on household purchasing power</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global long-end yields are on the rise, reflecting shifting growth expectation. Ongoing recovery in global M2 should provide a cushion.Domestic dual-policy buffers would underpin counter cyclical, with the govt will release economic stimulus packages and BI’ recent rate cut.The BRI MSME Index signals continued moderation, with slower growth pace driven by sustained pressure on household purchasing powerContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: Domestic Buffers To Cushion External Headwinds

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Post 20% rally in the past 6 weeks, JCI valuation is back at -1SD. We think further rerating will now hinge on growth momentum.</li><li>While we slightly lowered our FY25 growth expectations to 3% (from 4.5% previously), data points in Apr25 offer hopes for recovery, particularly if we see revival of govt spending in 2Q25 onwards.</li><li>We retain our FY25-end JCI target of 7,350 for now (implying 13.7x PE). From our ‘value’ picks, we continue to like INTP, BBRI, CTRA, MIKA.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Post 20% rally in the past 6 weeks, JCI valuation is back at -1SD. We think further rerating will now hinge on growth momentum.While we slightly lowered our FY25 growth expectations to 3% (from 4.5% previously), data points in Apr25 offer hopes for recovery, particularly if we see revival of govt spending in 2Q25 onwards.We retain our FY25-end JCI target of 7,350 for now (implying 13.7x PE). From our ‘value’ picks, we continue to like INTP, BBRI, CTRA, MIKA.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Tracking the Growth Momentum

<ul><li>UST yield has been elevated, well before the Moody’s downgrade, which reflects confluence of 3 structural factors.</li><li>Indonesian assets remain attractive, with INDOGB yields continuing to narrow against UST, while JCI have surged 21% from their recent lows. </li><li>Among the four factors assessed, most support the case for imminent BI rate cut, except for the recent rise in swap rate.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

UST yield has been elevated, well before the Moody’s downgrade, which reflects confluence of 3 structural factors.Indonesian assets remain attractive, with INDOGB yields continuing to narrow against UST, while JCI have surged 21% from their recent lows. Among the four factors assessed, most support the case for imminent BI rate cut, except for the recent rise in swap rate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>US-China “Total Reset” deal brough significant relief to global economic specters, although rising short end yield signal lesser rate cuts.</li><li>We observe the 4 factors to assess BI’s potential imminent rate cuts, with more factors points to rate cut, aside from rising swap cost.</li><li>The current economic moderation could be prolonged, requiring an integral approach to fiscal and monetary counter-cyclical policies.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

US-China “Total Reset” deal brough significant relief to global economic specters, although rising short end yield signal lesser rate cuts.We observe the 4 factors to assess BI’s potential imminent rate cuts, with more factors points to rate cut, aside from rising swap cost.The current economic moderation could be prolonged, requiring an integral approach to fiscal and monetary counter-cyclical policies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The rollback of the “Liberation Day” tariffs has reduced near-term global risk sentiment, providing a temporary boost to emerging market (EM) assets.</li><li>However, sustained optimism hinges on resolution of the US-China trade conflict, where retaliatory measures continue.</li><li>A surge in US Treasury yields— likely driven by foreign divestments, competitive global yields, and unwinding of basis trades—may have influenced the US shift toward moderation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The rollback of the “Liberation Day” tariffs has reduced near-term global risk sentiment, providing a temporary boost to emerging market (EM) assets.However, sustained optimism hinges on resolution of the US-China trade conflict, where retaliatory measures continue.A surge in US Treasury yields— likely driven by foreign divestments, competitive global yields, and unwinding of basis trades—may have influenced the US shift toward moderation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Monthly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research May 2025

Indonesia 10Y (GIDR10YR INDEX)

Macro Strategy: Domestic Buffers To Cushion External Headwinds

Global long-end yields are on the rise, reflecting shifting growth expectation. Ongoing recovery in global M2 should provide a cushion.

BRI Danareksa Research

Equity Strategy: Tracking the Growth Momentum

We retain our FY25-end JCI target of 7,350 for now (implying 13.7x PE). From our ‘value’ picks, we continue to like INTP, BBRI, CTRA, MIKA.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: The Vanity of Safe Haven

UST yield has been elevated, well before the Moody’s downgrade, which reflects confluence of 3 structural factors. Indonesian assets remain...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: Unraveling The Reset

US-China “Total Reset” deal brough significant relief to global economic specters, although rising short end yield signal lesser rate cuts.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Monthly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research May 2025

The rollback of the “Liberation Day” tariffs has reduced near-term global risk sentiment, providing a temporary boost to emerging market (EM) assets.

BRI Danareksa Research