ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya / Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya</a> (Alfamart) looks well set for a strong finish to the year boosted by seasonal factors and a higher quarter for supplier rebates making it the peak quarter.</li>
<li>The company should be able to surpass its guidance for new store build-out in 2024, emphasising Alfamart and Alfamidi outlets, as it consolidates its Lawson rollout. </li>
<li>Alfamart saw strong growth from online sales through Alfagift at +45% YoY, with Alfamart members reaching 20m, with 65% shopping every week. Valuations remain attractive with strong growth in 2025.</li>
</ul>



Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart) looks well set for a strong finish to the year boosted by seasonal factors and a higher quarter for supplier rebates making it the peak quarter.
The company should be able to surpass its guidance for new store build-out in 2024, emphasising Alfamart and Alfamidi outlets, as it consolidates its Lawson rollout. 
Alfamart saw strong growth from online sales through Alfagift at +45% YoY, with Alfamart members reaching 20m, with 65% shopping every week. Valuations remain attractive with strong growth in 2025.


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Primed for Profitable Growth in 2025

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia</a> should have a stronger finish to the year with stable credit costs and continuing growth in micro recoveries driving fee income growth, with NIMs remaining stable </li>
<li>Loan growth will increase in 4Q2024 but may see a slowdown in 2025 but the bank should see stable credit costs and a rebound in earnings with lower provisions. </li>
<li>Foreign ownership and vaulations are back to 2015 lows apart from the pandemic at 2.1x PBV is also a 10-year ex-pandemic low of 1.8x, and trades on 9.6x PER. </li>
</ul>



Bank Rakyat Indonesia should have a stronger finish to the year with stable credit costs and continuing growth in micro recoveries driving fee income growth, with NIMs remaining stable 
Loan growth will increase in 4Q2024 but may see a slowdown in 2025 but the bank should see stable credit costs and a rebound in earnings with lower provisions. 
Foreign ownership and vaulations are back to 2015 lows apart from the pandemic at 2.1x PBV is also a 10-year ex-pandemic low of 1.8x, and trades on 9.6x PER. 


Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Ultra Attractive

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> booked a solid set of 9M2024 results with some seasonal slowdown in 3Q2024 but prospects remain healthy as the rainy season has begun to boost consumption. </li>
<li>The company is seeing strong revenue growth across herbal &amp; supplements, F&amp;B (mainly energy drinks) and pharma, with improving margins, and exceptionally strong export growth. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul</a> saw an increase in its cash conversion caused by a strategic stocking of raw materials at favourable prices which should boost margins. Valuations are attractive at 15x PER. </li>
</ul>



Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) booked a solid set of 9M2024 results with some seasonal slowdown in 3Q2024 but prospects remain healthy as the rainy season has begun to boost consumption. 
The company is seeing strong revenue growth across herbal &amp; supplements, F&amp;B (mainly energy drinks) and pharma, with improving margins, and exceptionally strong export growth. 

Sido Muncul saw an increase in its cash conversion caused by a strategic stocking of raw materials at favourable prices which should boost margins. Valuations are attractive at 15x PER. 


Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) - Stocking Up for Growth

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart)</a> booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, a testament to its resilience during an election period, with the seasonal impact of Lebaran. </li>
<li>Minimarkets continue to be the winning format in Indonesia and Alfamart continued to gain share during 1Q2024, neck and neck with Salim-backed Indomaret if you include Alfamidi, Lawson, and Dan+Dan. </li>
<li>Alfamart will slow store openings to 1,300 stores this year after adding more than 1,800 outlets in 2023, with growth prospects remaining positive and profitability intact with a 25% ROE. </li>
</ul>



Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, a testament to its resilience during an election period, with the seasonal impact of Lebaran. 
Minimarkets continue to be the winning format in Indonesia and Alfamart continued to gain share during 1Q2024, neck and neck with Salim-backed Indomaret if you include Alfamidi, Lawson, and Dan+Dan. 
Alfamart will slow store openings to 1,300 stores this year after adding more than 1,800 outlets in 2023, with growth prospects remaining positive and profitability intact with a 25% ROE. 


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Solidifying Growth Prospects

Nippon Indosari Corpindo / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-indosari-corpindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1" rel="noopener">PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ)</a> saw a relatively slow finish to the year with a slight decline in sales but the key drag came from a higher return rate.</li>
<li>4Q2023 did not see the usual seasonal spike but 2024 has started well and the return rate has come down, which will boost profitability as new products gain traction. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-indosari-corpindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1" rel="noopener">ROTI</a> has launched several more affordable products to help drive its push into general trade whilst raw material prices remain under control. Valuations are attractive with recovery ahead.</li>
</ul>



PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) saw a relatively slow finish to the year with a slight decline in sales but the key drag came from a higher return rate.
4Q2023 did not see the usual seasonal spike but 2024 has started well and the return rate has come down, which will boost profitability as new products gain traction. 

ROTI has launched several more affordable products to help drive its push into general trade whilst raw material prices remain under control. Valuations are attractive with recovery ahead.


PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - Headwinds Dissipating

Indonesia

Indoritel Makmur Internasional Tbk is an investment holding company that focuses on the consumer and retail industries in Indonesia, with significant stakes in retail and telecommunications companies. It also provides fiber optic-based telecommunication data connection services to business and home customers, and is involved in e-commerce and digital services. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.

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Indoritel Makmur Internasional (DNET IJ)

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Primed for Profitable Growth in 2025

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart) looks well set for a strong finish to the year boosted by seasonal factors and a higher quarter for supplier...

Angus Mackintosh

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Ultra Attractive

Foreign ownership and vaulations are back to 2015 lows apart from the pandemic at 2.1x PBV is also a 10-year ex-pandemic low of 1.8x, and trades on...

Angus Mackintosh

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) - Stocking Up for Growth

Sido Muncul is seeing strong revenue growth across herbal & supplements, F&B (mainly energy drinks) and pharma, with improving margins, and...

Angus Mackintosh

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Solidifying Growth Prospects

Alfamart will slow store openings to 1,300 stores this year after adding more than 1,800 outlets in 2023, with growth prospects remaining positive...

Angus Mackintosh

PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - Headwinds Dissipating

ROTI has launched several more affordable products to help drive its push into general trade whilst raw material prices remain under control....

Angus Mackintosh

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