Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>President Trump has indicated that he will lower tariffs on ASEAN countries in exchange for future supply commitments of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) to counter China's industry dominance.</li>
<li>Although the supply commitments of REEs to supplant China's production will take years to fulfill, the tariff relief will provide immediate benefits to Chinese textile manufacturers with Southeast Asian production.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bosideng-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1" rel="noopener">Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)</a> ,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yue-yuen-industrial-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12281:1" rel="noopener">Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stella-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7610:1" rel="noopener">Stella International (1836 HK)</a> will benefit from the tariff relief.
</li>
</ul>


President Trump has indicated that he will lower tariffs on ASEAN countries in exchange for future supply commitments of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) to counter China's industry dominance.
Although the supply commitments of REEs to supplant China's production will take years to fulfill, the tariff relief will provide immediate benefits to Chinese textile manufacturers with Southeast Asian production.

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) , Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK) ,Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551 HK) , and Stella International (1836 HK) will benefit from the tariff relief.



How Rare Earth Elements Helped China's Textile Companies

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Valuation gap has closed; move to Neutral despite intact underlying fundamentals. </li>
<li>International growth remains strong, but incremental margin leverage is less certain. </li>
<li>FY27 guidance is the key catalyst: Japan traffic and International margins are the swing factors.</li>
</ul>


Valuation gap has closed; move to Neutral despite intact underlying fundamentals. 
International growth remains strong, but incremental margin leverage is less certain. 
FY27 guidance is the key catalyst: Japan traffic and International margins are the swing factors.


Fast Retailing (9983) | Pullback Closes Valuation Gap

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>For the last three years, SHEIN has consistently mis-handled political challenges in US, UK</li>
<li>Failure to anticipate and plan for these challenges hurt sales growth and SHEIN's valuation</li>
<li>SHEIN's stuggles speak directly to management's ability to identify risks and quickly adapt</li>
</ul>


For the last three years, SHEIN has consistently mis-handled political challenges in US, UK
Failure to anticipate and plan for these challenges hurt sales growth and SHEIN's valuation
SHEIN's stuggles speak directly to management's ability to identify risks and quickly adapt


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Management Consistently Underestimated Headwinds, Harming Sales and IPO Plan

Spain

Industria de Diseno Textil, S.A. designs, manufactures, and distributes apparel.  The Company operates retail chains in Europe, the Americas, Asia, and Africa.

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Industria De Diseno Textil SA (ITX SM)

How Rare Earth Elements Helped China's Textile Companies

President Trump will lower tariffs on ASEAN countries in exchange for future supply commitments of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) to counter China's...

David Mudd

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Fast Retailing (9983) | Pullback Closes Valuation Gap

Fast Retailing’s valuation reset brings us to Neutral, with FY27 guidance, Japan traffic and International margin leverage now key to the next move.

Mark Chadwick

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Management Consistently Underestimated Headwinds, Harming Sales and IPO Plan

After the first market session in which SHEIN's share price didn't decline vs the previous session, we're resurfacing a few recent insights...

Tracking Traffic

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