Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Yuan /Cover Story: How the Yuan is Taking Over the Dollar’s Role in Global Trade</li><li>Corruption /Exclusive: Ex-CSRC Chief Yi Huiman Faces Corruption Probe Likely Linked to ICBC</li><li>Banks /: Citi Ends UnionPay Membership Amid China Consumer Banking Retreat</li></ul>

Yuan /Cover Story: How the Yuan is Taking Over the Dollar’s Role in Global TradeCorruption /Exclusive: Ex-CSRC Chief Yi Huiman Faces Corruption Probe Likely Linked to ICBCBanks /: Citi Ends UnionPay Membership Amid China Consumer Banking Retreat

CX Daily: How the Yuan is Taking Over the Dollar’s Role in Global Trade 

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, China Life, HSTECH ETF.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, China Life, HSTECH ETF.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (August): $18bn Inflows

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Dah Sing saw its Macau and China credit costs rise by 4x in 1H25 YoY</li>
<li>Headline total provision rise of 34% YoY gives a flattering view of credit metrics</li>
<li>Loan migration from benign to worse overdue loan buckets is dramatic, not visible in headlines</li>
</ul>


Dah Sing saw its Macau and China credit costs rise by 4x in 1H25 YoY
Headline total provision rise of 34% YoY gives a flattering view of credit metrics
Loan migration from benign to worse overdue loan buckets is dramatic, not visible in headlines


HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>The A-H share premium has narrowed by an average of 35pp YTD. Despite the recent A-share recovery, the premium remains depressed relative to the start of the year.</li>
<li>Aggressive players may keep playing the leaders in the trend - the Chinese insurers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-life-insurance-co-ltd-9f877d22-7cf7-4b00-b525-cec71139f369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5794:1" rel="noopener">China Life (2628 HK)</a> and securities companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guolian-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:535:1" rel="noopener">Guolian Minsheng Securities H (1456 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Conservative players, however, may look at the laggards in AH premium contraction like the Chinese banks - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The A-H share premium has narrowed by an average of 35pp YTD. Despite the recent A-share recovery, the premium remains depressed relative to the start of the year.
Aggressive players may keep playing the leaders in the trend - the Chinese insurers like China Life (2628 HK) and securities companies like Guolian Minsheng Securities H (1456 HK). 
Conservative players, however, may look at the laggards in AH premium contraction like the Chinese banks - ICBC (H) (1398 HK) and China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK). 


China Strategy: Trading the A-H Premium Stocks

<ul>
<li>We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. </li>
<li>There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC</li>
<li>CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket</li>
</ul>


We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. 
There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC
CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket


HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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ICBC (H) (1398 HK)

CX Daily: How the Yuan is Taking Over the Dollar’s Role in Global Trade

TOP STORY Yuan / Cover Story: How the Yuan is Taking Over the Dollar’s Role in Global Trade In the first half of 2025, the U. S. dollar tumbled...

Caixin Global

Hong Kong Connect Flows (August): $18bn Inflows

We estimate inflows into HK via southbound trade were $18bn in August, at four month high. We highlight inflows for Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

Dah Sing Financial shows 4x growth YoY in its Macau and China credit costs. This is not clearly visible, or its Overdue Loan migration, in headline...

Daniel Tabbush

China Strategy: Trading the A-H Premium Stocks

The A-H share premium has narrowed by 35pp YTD, with Chinese insurers and securities companies leading the trend for aggressive players, while...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

HSBC 1H25 data release has a lot of granular data, which does not instill a huge amount of confidence in HK or CH credit metrics.

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CX Daily: How the Yuan is Taking Over the Dollar’s Role in Global Trade

TOP STORY Yuan / Cover Story: How the Yuan is Taking Over the Dollar’s Role in Global Trade In the first half of 2025, the U. S. dollar tumbled...

Caixin Global

Hong Kong Connect Flows (August): $18bn Inflows

We estimate inflows into HK via southbound trade were $18bn in August, at four month high. We highlight inflows for Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

Dah Sing Financial shows 4x growth YoY in its Macau and China credit costs. This is not clearly visible, or its Overdue Loan migration, in headline...

Daniel Tabbush

China Strategy: Trading the A-H Premium Stocks

​The A-H share premium has narrowed by 35pp YTD, with Chinese insurers and securities companies leading the trend for aggressive players, while...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

HSBC 1H25 data release has a lot of granular data, which does not instill a huge amount of confidence in HK or CH credit metrics.

Daniel Tabbush

The A-H share premium has narrowed by 35pp YTD, with Chinese insurers and securities companies leading the trend for aggressive players, while...