European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Median discount tightened from -1.1% to -0.5%, but the mean widened to -3.7%, as several already-large discounts moved further away from parity.</li>
<li>Carlsberg was the largest widener at -18.8%, while Grifols reached -33.3% and MFE -28.3%, improving prospective returns from convergence trades.</li>
<li>Grifols and MFE stand out among new positions, while Ericsson’s B-only SEK15bn buyback remains the most relevant active capital-structure development.</li>
</ul>


Median discount tightened from -1.1% to -0.5%, but the mean widened to -3.7%, as several already-large discounts moved further away from parity.
Carlsberg was the largest widener at -18.8%, while Grifols reached -33.3% and MFE -28.3%, improving prospective returns from convergence trades.
Grifols and MFE stand out among new positions, while Ericsson’s B-only SEK15bn buyback remains the most relevant active capital-structure development.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September '26 Report

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>GBL and Porsche became more attractive in August as discounts widened to 26.4% and 30.2%, respectively, despite higher NAVs; Investor and Industrivärden remain above NAV.</li>
<li>Vivendi remains the valuation outlier at a 55.5% discount after July's court ruling removed mandatory-offer optionality, leaving substantial upside but no obvious near-term convergence catalyst.</li>
<li>Holding-Company valuations remain driven by governance, balance sheets and catalysts rather than historical averages: GBL offers the best balance, while Investor's premium leaves little margin of safety.</li>
</ul>


GBL and Porsche became more attractive in August as discounts widened to 26.4% and 30.2%, respectively, despite higher NAVs; Investor and Industrivärden remain above NAV.
Vivendi remains the valuation outlier at a 55.5% discount after July's court ruling removed mandatory-offer optionality, leaving substantial upside but no obvious near-term convergence catalyst.
Holding-Company valuations remain driven by governance, balance sheets and catalysts rather than historical averages: GBL offers the best balance, while Investor's premium leaves little margin of safety.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August 2026 Report

<ul>
<li>Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.</li>
<li>Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.</li>
<li>Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.</li>
</ul>


Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.
Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.
Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

<ul>
<li>European holding company discounts remain highly dispersed, reflecting governance, capital allocation and catalyst visibility rather than asset quality. Structural valuation gaps continue to define relative-value opportunities across the sector.</li>
<li>Vivendi's Court of Appeal ruling removed mandatory bid expectations, widening its discount sharply, while GBL's strategic transformation and Nordic governance models continue supporting structurally tighter valuations.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto's DLC premium remains elevated, Porsche SE still trades below historical valuation despite improving fundamentals, and Heineken Holding's discount remains unusually tight versus long-term averages.</li>
</ul>


European holding company discounts remain highly dispersed, reflecting governance, capital allocation and catalyst visibility rather than asset quality. Structural valuation gaps continue to define relative-value opportunities across the sector.
Vivendi's Court of Appeal ruling removed mandatory bid expectations, widening its discount sharply, while GBL's strategic transformation and Nordic governance models continue supporting structurally tighter valuations.
Rio Tinto's DLC premium remains elevated, Porsche SE still trades below historical valuation despite improving fundamentals, and Heineken Holding's discount remains unusually tight versus long-term averages.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2026 Report

<ul>
<li>Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.</li>
<li>Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.</li>
<li>BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.
Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.
BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

Sweden

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

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Industrivarden (INDUC SS)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September '26 Report

September brought fresh dispersion: Carlsberg, Grifols and MFE widened sharply, improving convergence returns, while Ericsson's B-only buyback adds...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August 2026 Report

GBL and Porsche cheapened in August, while Investor remains above NAV. Vivendi's 55.5% discount offers the largest upside, but July's court ruling...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

August brought fresh dispersion across Europe's dual-class shares, creating new relative-value opportunities while corporate actions remain an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2026 Report

European holding company discounts remain highly dispersed. Vivendi loses its legal catalyst, GBL continues its strategic re-rating, while Nordic...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

-July widened dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe, yet selective convergence persisted beneath the surface. Structural anomalies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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