Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Mahindra &amp; Mahindra: M&amp;M Q4 adjusted PAT at INR 19.3bn came in above our estimate of INR 16.2bn due to higher-than-expected revenue and lower tax rate, even as its operational performance was in line with our estimates</li><li>M&amp;M’s performance highlights for FY23 are: (1) No1 in SUVs revenue market share at 19.1% (+370bps YoY) (2) market leader in LCVs (&lt;3.5T) with 520bps improvement to 45.5% (3) FES market share up 120bps YoY to 41.2% (4) market leader in EV 3Ws with 67.6% share</li><li>Also, it is commendable that M&amp;M has already achieved most of the targets it earmarked a couple of years back, including improvement in auto margins, EPS CAGR, RoE at 18% (stands at 19.9% for FY23), calibrated asset allocation, etc</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahindra &amp; Mahindra: M&amp;M Q4 adjusted PAT at INR 19.3bn came in above our estimate of INR 16.2bn due to higher-than-expected revenue and lower tax rate, even as its operational performance was in line with our estimatesM&amp;M’s performance highlights for FY23 are: (1) No1 in SUVs revenue market share at 19.1% (+370bps YoY) (2) market leader in LCVs (&lt;3.5T) with 520bps improvement to 45.5% (3) FES market share up 120bps YoY to 41.2% (4) market leader in EV 3Ws with 67.6% shareAlso, it is commendable that M&amp;M has already achieved most of the targets it earmarked a couple of years back, including improvement in auto margins, EPS CAGR, RoE at 18% (stands at 19.9% for FY23), calibrated asset allocation, etcContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Mahindra & Mahindra, Infoedge, Sundaram Finance

<ul><li>Exchanges: MCX revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% QoQ, mainly due to a decline in futures volume and flat options revenue (a drop in effective realisation due to lower premium collection)</li><li>Higher payout to tech vendor will impact EBITDA margin (~9.4%, down 1,345bps QoQ)</li><li>The tech transition remains the key overhang, MCX has been conducting mock trading sessions and the current transition timeline stands at 30 June 2023</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Exchanges: MCX revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% QoQ, mainly due to a decline in futures volume and flat options revenue (a drop in effective realisation due to lower premium collection)Higher payout to tech vendor will impact EBITDA margin (~9.4%, down 1,345bps QoQ)The tech transition remains the key overhang, MCX has been conducting mock trading sessions and the current transition timeline stands at 30 June 2023Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Exchanges, Staffing and Internet - Soft Landing

<ul><li>Mahindra &amp; Mahindra: M&amp;M Q3 adjusted PAT at INR 20bn came in above our estimate of INR 18.7bn, primarily due to higher-than-expected other income, even as its operational performance was in line with our estimates</li><li>M&amp;M’s performance highlights for YTDFY23 are: (1) steady market share revival in the UV segment every quarter on the back of its new launches (2) 90bps market share improvement in tractors to 41.4%, without compromising on margins (3) revival in market share in &lt;3.5T segment (4) continued leadership in e-3Ws with 65% market share in Q3</li><li>Also, it is commendable that M&amp;M has already achieved most of the targets it earmarked a couple of years back (including EPS CAGR, improvement in auto margins, RoE at 18%, calibrated asset allocation etc.) and management has indicated that it is now time to raise its targets from here on</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahindra &amp; Mahindra: M&amp;M Q3 adjusted PAT at INR 20bn came in above our estimate of INR 18.7bn, primarily due to higher-than-expected other income, even as its operational performance was in line with our estimatesM&amp;M’s performance highlights for YTDFY23 are: (1) steady market share revival in the UV segment every quarter on the back of its new launches (2) 90bps market share improvement in tractors to 41.4%, without compromising on margins (3) revival in market share in &lt;3.5T segment (4) continued leadership in e-3Ws with 65% market share in Q3Also, it is commendable that M&amp;M has already achieved most of the targets it earmarked a couple of years back (including EPS CAGR, improvement in auto margins, RoE at 18%, calibrated asset allocation etc.) and management has indicated that it is now time to raise its targets from here onContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Mahindra & Mahindra, Infoedge, City Union Bank, NOCIL

<ul><li>Exchanges: MCX revenue is expected to increase by 7.4% QoQ and the margin will expand to 52.3% (+82bps QoQ)</li><li>We prefer MCX in the exchanges space, aided by continued traction in options volume, healthy new product pipeline (index and mini contracts) and expected cost savings due to a change in tech vendor</li><li>The extension of the support timeline by the existing technology vendor will impact profitability in the short term</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Exchanges: MCX revenue is expected to increase by 7.4% QoQ and the margin will expand to 52.3% (+82bps QoQ)We prefer MCX in the exchanges space, aided by continued traction in options volume, healthy new product pipeline (index and mini contracts) and expected cost savings due to a change in tech vendorThe extension of the support timeline by the existing technology vendor will impact profitability in the short termContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Exchanges, Staffing and Internet - Mixed Bag

India

Info Edge is an Indian technology holding company that owns, operates, and invests in internet-led businesses. It provides online platforms for recruitment (Naukri.com), real estate (99acres.com), matrimony (Jeevansathi.com), and education (Shiksha.com), along with strategic investments in technology startups. The company is headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India, and was founded in 1995.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Info Edge (INFOE IN)

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Mahindra & Mahindra, Infoedge, Sundaram Finance

M&M Q4 adjusted PAT at INR 19.3bn came in above our estimate of INR 16.2bn due to higher-than-expected revenue and lower tax rate

HDFC Securities

Exchanges, Staffing and Internet - Soft Landing

MCX revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% QoQ, mainly due to a decline in futures volume and flat options revenue (a drop in effective realisation...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Mahindra & Mahindra, Infoedge, City Union Bank, NOCIL

M&M Q3 adjusted PAT at INR 20bn came in above our estimate of INR 18.7bn, primarily due to higher-than-expected other income, even as its...

HDFC Securities

Exchanges, Staffing and Internet - Mixed Bag

We prefer MCX in the exchanges space, aided by continued traction in options volume, healthy new product pipeline (index and mini contracts) and...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)