New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) announced CDC Data Centres (CDC) has signed another 100MW of contracts.</li><li>We increase our target price to NZ$13.25 due to peer re-rating and marginal near-term earnings upgrades in CDC.</li><li>For CDC to deliver its ~+70% year-on-year increase in EBITDA in FY27, it needs the majority of its FY27 contracts to start generating revenue early in the year.</li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) announced CDC Data Centres (CDC) has signed another 100MW of contracts.We increase our target price to NZ$13.25 due to peer re-rating and marginal near-term earnings upgrades in CDC.For CDC to deliver its ~+70% year-on-year increase in EBITDA in FY27, it needs the majority of its FY27 contracts to start generating revenue early in the year.

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) hosted a confident investor day with presentations from its three largest portfolio companies: CDC Data Centres, One NZ, and Longroad; as well as its most promising future growth platform, Gurin Energy.</li><li>The key updates were reiterations of medium-term targets from each of its three large investments.</li><li>CDC is now tracking to the bottom end of its FY26 guidance range, with timing delays the reason, but it retained confidence in its FY27 target, which now implies ~+70% year-on-year EBITDAF growth; we forecast ~+60% growth.</li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) hosted a confident investor day with presentations from its three largest portfolio companies: CDC Data Centres, One NZ, and Longroad; as well as its most promising future growth platform, Gurin Energy.The key updates were reiterations of medium-term targets from each of its three large investments.CDC is now tracking to the bottom end of its FY26 guidance range, with timing delays the reason, but it retained confidence in its FY27 target, which now implies ~+70% year-on-year EBITDAF growth; we forecast ~+60% growth.

Infratil Investor Day 2025—Reiterating Targets

<ul><li>Infratil's current risk levels are high due to leverage and insufficient operating cash flow.</li><li>CDC's EBITDA growth guidance was disappointing, but the FY27 target remains intact.</li><li>Infratil plans to raise over NZ$1b by divesting non-scalable businesses, potentially impacting operating cash flow.</li></ul>

Infratil's current risk levels are high due to leverage and insufficient operating cash flow.CDC's EBITDA growth guidance was disappointing, but the FY27 target remains intact.Infratil plans to raise over NZ$1b by divesting non-scalable businesses, potentially impacting operating cash flow.

<ul><li>CDC remains the dominant driver of Infratil share price and valuation, with a focus expected to shift to Asia and potential positive forward guidance from Gurin.</li><li>FY25 will be the first full year of Infratil owning ~100% of One NZ, with expectations of increased disclosure, focus on free cash flow, and delivering its first year of modest positive FCF to equity holders.</li><li>Longroad's US renewables have been disappointing, but there's potential for a doubling of Opco EBITDA to US$200m in FY26, and the company is expected to focus more on new developments in Asia.</li></ul>

CDC remains the dominant driver of Infratil share price and valuation, with a focus expected to shift to Asia and potential positive forward guidance from Gurin.FY25 will be the first full year of Infratil owning ~100% of One NZ, with expectations of increased disclosure, focus on free cash flow, and delivering its first year of modest positive FCF to equity holders.Longroad's US renewables have been disappointing, but there's potential for a doubling of Opco EBITDA to US$200m in FY26, and the company is expected to focus more on new developments in Asia.

Infratil FY25 Preview—The Long Road to US500m P.a.

<ul><li>The sale of Manawa (MNW) to Contact Energy (CEN) has received Commerce Commission clearance, injecting cash and liquidity into Infratil (IFT).</li><li>IFT has two mature assets, Wellington International Airport (WIAL) and Diagnostic Imaging (DI), which are too small to significantly impact IFT but too large to ignore.</li><li>A strategic rethink is necessary for IFT to bridge the cash gap, potentially involving selling down CEN shares or altering the portfolio mix.</li></ul>

The sale of Manawa (MNW) to Contact Energy (CEN) has received Commerce Commission clearance, injecting cash and liquidity into Infratil (IFT).IFT has two mature assets, Wellington International Airport (WIAL) and Diagnostic Imaging (DI), which are too small to significantly impact IFT but too large to ignore.A strategic rethink is necessary for IFT to bridge the cash gap, potentially involving selling down CEN shares or altering the portfolio mix.

New Zealand

Infratil Limited is an infrastructure investment company. The Company invests in airports, energy such as renewable and waste-energy, and public transportation.

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Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ)

Infratil CDC Racks Up The Contracts

For CDC to deliver its ~+70% year-on-year increase in EBITDA in FY27, it needs the majority of its FY27 contracts to start generating revenue early...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil Investor Day 2025—Reiterating Targets

Infratil (IFT) hosted a confident investor day with presentations from its three largest portfolio companies: CDC Data Centres, One NZ, and...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil FY25 Result—Reality Check

Infratil's current risk levels are high due to leverage and insufficient operating cash flow. CDC's EBITDA growth guidance was disappointing, but...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil FY25 Preview—The Long Road to US500m P.a.

CDC remains the dominant driver of Infratil share price and valuation, with a focus expected to shift to Asia and potential positive forward...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil - The End of an Era

The sale of Manawa (MNW) to Contact Energy (CEN) has received Commerce Commission clearance, injecting cash and liquidity into Infratil (IFT). IFT...

Forsyth Barr

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