New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) reported an in-line 1H24 result, with expected strong growth from key portfolio companies CDC and One NZ, which together make up over half of IFT's value.</li><li>FY24 proportionate EBITDA guidance was modestly upgraded without making any meaningful net changes to portfolio company guidance.</li><li>We believe the upgrade primarily relates to increased confidence for IFT that One NZ will deliver towards the upper end of its guidance.</li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) reported an in-line 1H24 result, with expected strong growth from key portfolio companies CDC and One NZ, which together make up over half of IFT's value.FY24 proportionate EBITDA guidance was modestly upgraded without making any meaningful net changes to portfolio company guidance.We believe the upgrade primarily relates to increased confidence for IFT that One NZ will deliver towards the upper end of its guidance.

Infratil - One NZ Delivering Growth but No Cash, Yet

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) is due to report its 1H24 result on Thursday, 16 November.</li><li>IFT stated at its AGM in August that 1Q24 trading had been strong from its key companies (likely CDC and One NZ), and it gave IFT confidence that FY24 earnings are tracking towards the top end of its guidance range.</li><li>We believe the focus of the result will be on: (1) CDC outlook comments, (2) margin improvement at One NZ, (3) possible independent valuation update of Longroad, (4) interest costs (and 'look through' debt levels). </li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) is due to report its 1H24 result on Thursday, 16 November.IFT stated at its AGM in August that 1Q24 trading had been strong from its key companies (likely CDC and One NZ), and it gave IFT confidence that FY24 earnings are tracking towards the top end of its guidance range.We believe the focus of the result will be on: (1) CDC outlook comments, (2) margin improvement at One NZ, (3) possible independent valuation update of Longroad, (4) interest costs (and 'look through' debt levels). 

Infratil - CDC Outlook and One NZ Margins in Focus

<ul><li>We walk away from Infratil's (IFT) Longroad investor day with three main takeaways. (1) Its target to deliver ~1.5GW annually over the next four to five years seems highly credible.</li><li>Pipeline for 2024 and 2025 is ahead of target and 1.5GW seems more of a choice not to overextend than the stretch target we initially viewed it as.</li><li>(2) On top of the base investment tax credit, Longroad is likely to access a meaningful level of additional credits, which could be worth up to high, single digits, additional IRRs on some projects. </li></ul>

We walk away from Infratil's (IFT) Longroad investor day with three main takeaways. (1) Its target to deliver ~1.5GW annually over the next four to five years seems highly credible.Pipeline for 2024 and 2025 is ahead of target and 1.5GW seems more of a choice not to overextend than the stretch target we initially viewed it as.(2) On top of the base investment tax credit, Longroad is likely to access a meaningful level of additional credits, which could be worth up to high, single digits, additional IRRs on some projects. 

Infratil - The Longroad to Value Realisation Is Heating Up

<ul><li>IFT to invest US$360m–US$410m for 60%–80% of Console Connect</li><li>A beneficiary of global data tailwinds — global diversity added to IFT's digital infrastructure portfolio</li><li>What does Console Connect do?: CC's current next-generation platform enables customers to self-provision a private internet connection utilising CC's vast globally integrated network of 3rd party data centres, cloud zones, international cables and SaaS platforms on a pay-as-you-go bandwidth basis. </li></ul>

IFT to invest US$360m–US$410m for 60%–80% of Console ConnectA beneficiary of global data tailwinds — global diversity added to IFT's digital infrastructure portfolioWhat does Console Connect do?: CC's current next-generation platform enables customers to self-provision a private internet connection utilising CC's vast globally integrated network of 3rd party data centres, cloud zones, international cables and SaaS platforms on a pay-as-you-go bandwidth basis. 

<ul><li>IFT in the driving seat of two mega trends, supported by a solid cash generative New Zealand core</li><li>One NZ in a better position than SPK with no private cloud headwinds and mobile momentum</li><li>Acquisition makes sense in IFT's portfolio — allowing portfolio flexibility</li></ul>

IFT in the driving seat of two mega trends, supported by a solid cash generative New Zealand coreOne NZ in a better position than SPK with no private cloud headwinds and mobile momentumAcquisition makes sense in IFT's portfolio — allowing portfolio flexibility

Infratil: Consolidating Core; Reinstate OUTPERFORM

New Zealand

Infratil Limited is an infrastructure investment company. The Company invests in airports, energy such as renewable and waste-energy, and public transportation.

Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ)

Infratil - One NZ Delivering Growth but No Cash, Yet

Infratil (IFT) reported an in-line 1H24 result, with expected strong growth from key portfolio companies CDC and One NZ, which together make up...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil - CDC Outlook and One NZ Margins in Focus

We believe the focus of the result will be on: (1) CDC outlook comments, (2) margin improvement at One NZ, (3) possible independent valuation...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil - The Longroad to Value Realisation Is Heating Up

We walk away from Infratil's (IFT) Longroad investor day with three main takeaways. (1) Its target to deliver ~1.5GW annually over the next four to...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil: Connecting the Dots

Infratil (IFT) has announced a conditional investment into Console Connect (CC), a top 3 global software-defined interconnection platform; IFT is...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil: Consolidating Core; Reinstate OUTPERFORM

Reinstating our rating on Infratil (IFT) as OUTPERFORM following its capital raise and acquisition of the remaining half of One NZ, New Zealand's...

Forsyth Barr