IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.</li>
<li>There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions. </li>
<li>I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.
There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions. 
I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.</li>
<li>Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.</li>
<li>I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.
Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.
I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. </li>
<li>Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)’s IFA opines that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. 
Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 101.0% as of Dec 13th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.9ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, industrials and offset by real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 101.0% as of Dec 13th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.9ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, industrials and offset by real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 13th):ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 103.7% as of Nov 22nd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.0ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, industrials, financials and offset by consumer staples, health care, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for InnoCare, Shanghai Pharma, First Tractor, Air China.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 103.7% as of Nov 22nd.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.0ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, industrials, financials and offset by consumer staples, health care, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for InnoCare, Shanghai Pharma, First Tractor, Air China.


A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 22nd): InnoCare, Shanghai Pharma, First Tractor, Air China

China

InnoCare Pharma is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to discovering, developing, and commercializing drugs for cancer and autoimmune diseases. Its pipeline includes key products like orelabrutinib, tafasitamab, and ICP-332. The company was co-founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Price Gauge
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InnoCare Pharma (9969 HK)

Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move

There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote and support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

Key shareholders will be supportive, and this is a done deal. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 15 February payment was 2.9%...

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 13th):ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for ZOOMLION, QDP, BeiGene, INNOCARE, TEC, MA STEEL, AIR CHINA.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 22nd): InnoCare, Shanghai Pharma, First Tractor, Air China

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for InnoCare, Shanghai Pharma, First Tractor, Air China.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)