HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Biotech will continue selling early-stage pipeline in a sluggish market, but this will further lower its valuation as financing won't improve quickly.</li>
<li>Pharmaceutical distribution companies are facing challenges, driving ongoing consolidation in the industry. However, this trend will ultimately benefit the growth of leading companies in the long run.</li>
<li>If investors truly understand "the essence" of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">HEC Changjiang Pharma</a>, they will be more calm/rational to look at this absorption merger and the inclusion of Hang Seng family of indexes.</li>
</ul>


Biotech will continue selling early-stage pipeline in a sluggish market, but this will further lower its valuation as financing won't improve quickly.
Pharmaceutical distribution companies are facing challenges, driving ongoing consolidation in the industry. However, this trend will ultimately benefit the growth of leading companies in the long run.
If investors truly understand "the essence" of HEC Changjiang Pharma, they will be more calm/rational to look at this absorption merger and the inclusion of Hang Seng family of indexes.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1)-Biotech Sell Asset,Pharmaceutical Distribution Company,HEC CJ Pharma

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong product sales growth continued. In 1H24, Innovent recorded total revenue of RMB3.95bn, including RMB3.81bn product sales (+55% YoY, +17% HoH), representing 53% of our previous full-year estimate, surpassing our expectations.</li><li>The strong product sales growth was mainly driven by the sintilimab and other new products.</li><li>According to Eli Lilly, sales of sintilimab in 1H24 reached US$240mn (or RMB1.71bn), +46% YoY, bolstered by expanded NRDL coverage and stable pricing. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Strong product sales growth continued. In 1H24, Innovent recorded total revenue of RMB3.95bn, including RMB3.81bn product sales (+55% YoY, +17% HoH), representing 53% of our previous full-year estimate, surpassing our expectations.The strong product sales growth was mainly driven by the sintilimab and other new products.According to Eli Lilly, sales of sintilimab in 1H24 reached US$240mn (or RMB1.71bn), +46% YoY, bolstered by expanded NRDL coverage and stable pricing. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) - 2025 EBITDA Breakeven Goal Unchanged

<ul>
<li>The Share Alternative is necessary to improve success rate of privatization. Our guess is Henlius Biopharmaceuticals/Lin Lijun would vote for this privatization, but we’re not sure about Qatar Investment’s decision.</li>
<li>Due to its "flaws", undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to fundamentally change. So, those conservative and cautious investors would choose the Cash Alternative considering the risks behind the Share Alternative.</li>
<li>Even if there’re plans of re-listing, it may be based on a new entity formed after integrating Henlius and other assets within Fosun Pharma. So, the value of Rollover Entities/Securities remains uncertain.</li>
</ul>


The Share Alternative is necessary to improve success rate of privatization. Our guess is Henlius Biopharmaceuticals/Lin Lijun would vote for this privatization, but we’re not sure about Qatar Investment’s decision.
Due to its "flaws", undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to fundamentally change. So, those conservative and cautious investors would choose the Cash Alternative considering the risks behind the Share Alternative.
Even if there’re plans of re-listing, it may be based on a new entity formed after integrating Henlius and other assets within Fosun Pharma. So, the value of Rollover Entities/Securities remains uncertain.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Privatization Has Taken a Positive Step Forward

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

<ul>
<li>Dupert, a drug for the special treatment of non-small cell cancer has been approved by the NMPA.</li>
<li>In 2022, China recorded the highest number of new cancer cases, and their exceptional high incidence of smoking is of particular concern.</li>
<li>Innovent’s portfolio of nine oncology drugs is very attractive in the biggest cancer market.</li>
</ul>


Dupert, a drug for the special treatment of non-small cell cancer has been approved by the NMPA.
In 2022, China recorded the highest number of new cancer cases, and their exceptional high incidence of smoking is of particular concern.
Innovent’s portfolio of nine oncology drugs is very attractive in the biggest cancer market.


Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Medtide relies heavily on limited number of customers to contribute performance. If there is any significant reduction in demand by its major customers, Medtide’s performance growth would be materially/adversely affected.</li>
<li>Due to geopolitical conflicts, pharmaceutical companies are becoming more cautious about their reliance on China CXO. So, the development of Medtide’s overseas business would become more uncertain in this context.</li>
<li>Medtide's business scale is still small and its position in the global peptide CXO industry is not as strong as described. Valuation of Medtide should be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Medtide relies heavily on limited number of customers to contribute performance. If there is any significant reduction in demand by its major customers, Medtide’s performance growth would be materially/adversely affected.
Due to geopolitical conflicts, pharmaceutical companies are becoming more cautious about their reliance on China CXO. So, the development of Medtide’s overseas business would become more uncertain in this context.
Medtide's business scale is still small and its position in the global peptide CXO industry is not as strong as described. Valuation of Medtide should be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Medtide - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1)-Biotech Sell Asset,Pharmaceutical Distribution Company,HEC CJ Pharma

Biotech's decision to sell pipeline will continue in sluggish market, leading to lower valuation. Pharmaceutical distribution companies face...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) - 2025 EBITDA Breakeven Goal Unchanged

Strong product sales growth continued. In 1H24, Innovent recorded total revenue of RMB3.95bn, including RMB3.81bn product sales (+55% YoY, +17% HoH)

CMB International

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Privatization Has Taken a Positive Step Forward

Share Alternative is necessary to improve success rate of privatization, but there're risk behind. As undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio

Innovent’s portfolio of nine approved oncology drugs, and pipeline of late-stage oncology drugs makes it a very attractive asset in the biggest...

daaimon

Pre-IPO Medtide - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

Medtide's growth is at risk due to high reliance on limited customers, uncertainty in overseas business and lower-than-expected position in global...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1)-Biotech Sell Asset,Pharmaceutical Distribution Company,HEC CJ Pharma

​Biotech's decision to sell pipeline will continue in sluggish market, leading to lower valuation. Pharmaceutical distribution companies face...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) - 2025 EBITDA Breakeven Goal Unchanged

Strong product sales growth continued. In 1H24, Innovent recorded total revenue of RMB3.95bn, including RMB3.81bn product sales (+55% YoY, +17% HoH)

CMB International

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Privatization Has Taken a Positive Step Forward

Share Alternative is necessary to improve success rate of privatization, but there're risk behind. As undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio

Innovent’s portfolio of nine approved oncology drugs, and pipeline of late-stage oncology drugs makes it a very attractive asset in the biggest...

daaimon

Pre-IPO Medtide - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

​Medtide's growth is at risk due to high reliance on limited customers, uncertainty in overseas business and lower-than-expected position in global...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Biotech's decision to sell pipeline will continue in sluggish market, leading to lower valuation. Pharmaceutical distribution companies face...

Medtide's growth is at risk due to high reliance on limited customers, uncertainty in overseas business and lower-than-expected position in global...