HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 24Q1 product sales was up just 6% QoQ. The overall data shows that PD-1 growth has entered a bottleneck. This makes 24H2 YoY growth rate uncertain.</li>
<li>The deal between Hengrui and Hercules is different from traditional license-out cooperation, but belong to asset spin-off in essence, which is a “smart deal” and also a meaningful attempt.</li>
<li>There’re some positive signals in Zai Lab’s 24Q1 performance, but the pain points of business model severely limit its profitability/revenue scale. Zai Lab still has a long way to go.</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 24Q1 product sales was up just 6% QoQ. The overall data shows that PD-1 growth has entered a bottleneck. This makes 24H2 YoY growth rate uncertain.
The deal between Hengrui and Hercules is different from traditional license-out cooperation, but belong to asset spin-off in essence, which is a “smart deal” and also a meaningful attempt.
There’re some positive signals in Zai Lab’s 24Q1 performance, but the pain points of business model severely limit its profitability/revenue scale. Zai Lab still has a long way to go.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Disputable Phase III result of Akeso's (9926 HK) flagship pipeline Ivonescimab (AK112) caused Akeso's share price to drop 28% in three days, reaching the bottom of a year-long trading range;</li>
<li>The fundamental difference of opinions is around Ivonescimab's global prospects against (1) Merck's Keytruda, (2) J&amp;J's Rybrevant, (3) Kelun's SKB264 and domestic prospect against (4) Innovent's IBI305;</li>
<li>Some answers are clear while others are now. What can provide answers are (1) SKB264's Phase III data, and to a lesser degree (2) AK112's head-to-head trial against Keytruda.</li>
</ul>


Disputable Phase III result of Akeso's (9926 HK) flagship pipeline Ivonescimab (AK112) caused Akeso's share price to drop 28% in three days, reaching the bottom of a year-long trading range;
The fundamental difference of opinions is around Ivonescimab's global prospects against (1) Merck's Keytruda, (2) J&amp;J's Rybrevant, (3) Kelun's SKB264 and domestic prospect against (4) Innovent's IBI305;
Some answers are clear while others are now. What can provide answers are (1) SKB264's Phase III data, and to a lesser degree (2) AK112's head-to-head trial against Keytruda.


Is Akeso's Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?

<ul>
<li>We saw the collapse of Akeso's share price after the Company released the clinical data of AK112 on ASCO. Judging from the market reaction, there are indeed“something unsatisfactory” about AK112.</li>
<li>Akeso’s high valuation mainly comes from the expectation that it would be a player that can compete on international stage. But investors' confidence in AK112’s future commercialization has been shaken.</li>
<li>We advise investors to remain patient and "let the bullets fly". It's not yet time for the final result.But, if you want to bet, you need to pay the price.</li>
</ul>


We saw the collapse of Akeso's share price after the Company released the clinical data of AK112 on ASCO. Judging from the market reaction, there are indeed“something unsatisfactory” about AK112.
Akeso’s high valuation mainly comes from the expectation that it would be a player that can compete on international stage. But investors' confidence in AK112’s future commercialization has been shaken.
We advise investors to remain patient and "let the bullets fly". It's not yet time for the final result.But, if you want to bet, you need to pay the price.


Akeso Biopharma (9926.HK) - It's Not Game over Yet

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are many rumors about Henlius’s trading halt, but Fosun Pharma had applied for the resumption of trading in H Shares, which makes us confused whether this is really privatization.</li>
<li>Henlius is in “an awkward position” in capital market. Fosun is to blame for Henlius's low valuation. The high debt problem makes the profits generated from drug sales meaningless.</li>
<li>If Henlius cannot break away from the system controlled by Fosun, the complexity of corporate governance brought about by the relationship between Henlius and Fosun would inevitably affect investment judgment.</li>
</ul>


There are many rumors about Henlius’s trading halt, but Fosun Pharma had applied for the resumption of trading in H Shares, which makes us confused whether this is really privatization.
Henlius is in “an awkward position” in capital market. Fosun is to blame for Henlius's low valuation. The high debt problem makes the profits generated from drug sales meaningless.
If Henlius cannot break away from the system controlled by Fosun, the complexity of corporate governance brought about by the relationship between Henlius and Fosun would inevitably affect investment judgment.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Behind the Trading Halt and Privatization Rumor

Equity Capital Markets

Akeso Biopharma Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Akeso’s product sales grew rapidly in 2023, mainly driven by off-label use of AK104. Since AK104's commercialization potential on other indications was "overdrawn" in advance, sales growth would slow afterwards. </li>
<li>The key investment logic of Akeso is whether/how much its BsAb pipelines would grab shares from PD-1. The high valuation has somewhat priced in AK112’s successful head-to-head trial with pembrolizumab.</li>
<li>If AK112 does beat Keytruda, valuation will reach a new level. If AK112 fails in critical clinical trials, it would cast a shadow on the entire BsAb pipeline of Akeso.</li>
</ul>


Akeso’s product sales grew rapidly in 2023, mainly driven by off-label use of AK104. Since AK104's commercialization potential on other indications was "overdrawn" in advance, sales growth would slow afterwards. 
The key investment logic of Akeso is whether/how much its BsAb pipelines would grab shares from PD-1. The high valuation has somewhat priced in AK112’s successful head-to-head trial with pembrolizumab.
If AK112 does beat Keytruda, valuation will reach a new level. If AK112 fails in critical clinical trials, it would cast a shadow on the entire BsAb pipeline of Akeso.


Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

Innovent's PD-1 growth face bottleneck, with uncertainty in 24H2 growth; Hengrui-Hercules deal a "smart" asset spin-off; Zai Lab has positive...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Is Akeso's Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?

Akeso's share price drops 28% due to disputable Phase III results of Ivonescimab, but what is expected and how does it fall short? What are the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Akeso Biopharma (9926.HK) - It's Not Game over Yet

Akeso's share price plunged after unsatisfactory clinical data release for AK112 at ASCO, raising doubts about international...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Behind the Trading Halt and Privatization Rumor

Rumors swirl around Henlius's trading halt, raising questions about privatization.Henlius faces challenge in the market due to high debt, with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

Stock price plunged today because the clinical data of AK112 (EGFRm NSCLC progressed after EGFR-TKI treatment) missed expectations. As we analyzed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

​Innovent's PD-1 growth face bottleneck, with uncertainty in 24H2 growth; Hengrui-Hercules deal a "smart" asset spin-off; Zai Lab has positive...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Is Akeso's Sell-Off a Long Waited Opportunity or a Long Overdue Correction?

​Akeso's share price drops 28% due to disputable Phase III results of Ivonescimab, but what is expected and how does it fall short? What are the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Akeso Biopharma (9926.HK) - It's Not Game over Yet

​Akeso's share price plunged after unsatisfactory clinical data release for AK112 at ASCO, raising doubts about international...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Behind the Trading Halt and Privatization Rumor

​Rumors swirl around Henlius's trading halt, raising questions about privatization.Henlius faces challenge in the market due to high debt, with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

Stock price plunged today because the clinical data of AK112 (EGFRm NSCLC progressed after EGFR-TKI treatment) missed expectations. As we analyzed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent's PD-1 growth face bottleneck, with uncertainty in 24H2 growth; Hengrui-Hercules deal a "smart" asset spin-off; Zai Lab has positive...

Akeso's share price drops 28% due to disputable Phase III results of Ivonescimab, but what is expected and how does it fall short? What are the...

Akeso's share price plunged after unsatisfactory clinical data release for AK112 at ASCO, raising doubts about international...

Rumors swirl around Henlius's trading halt, raising questions about privatization.Henlius faces challenge in the market due to high debt, with...