HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2023 is a crucial year for Zai Lab.It’s the first time for Zai Lab to demonstrate the profitability of license-in model.If it fails, investors would lose confidence in the company.</li>
<li>There is little correlation between the four commercialized products, which makes commercialization difficult and leads to low efficiency/high costs for sales team. So, breakeven could be more distant than expected.</li>
<li>Zai Lab's current pipelines are hard to make money. There are concerns whether its business model is sustainable in the long term. As its valuation lacks an “anchor”, risk is high.</li>
</ul>


2023 is a crucial year for Zai Lab.It’s the first time for Zai Lab to demonstrate the profitability of license-in model.If it fails, investors would lose confidence in the company.
There is little correlation between the four commercialized products, which makes commercialization difficult and leads to low efficiency/high costs for sales team. So, breakeven could be more distant than expected.
Zai Lab's current pipelines are hard to make money. There are concerns whether its business model is sustainable in the long term. As its valuation lacks an “anchor”, risk is high.


Zai Lab (9688.HK/ZLAB.US) 2022/2023Q1 - The True Colors and the Risks Behind

<ul>
<li>The 9th national VBP has begun. We analyzed the major big varieties with sales over RMB1 billion included in this VBP and the impact on related domestic pharmaceutical companies. </li>
<li>"Concept validation" of the business model of Chinese Biotech companies has been completed. Even under enormous pressure of medical insurance fee control policy, drug sales remain a reliable profit model.</li>
<li>Medlive's weak share price performance has a reason. The significant profitability increase in 23H1 wasn't from the improvement of main business. Its business model needs time to be further validated.</li>
</ul>


The 9th national VBP has begun. We analyzed the major big varieties with sales over RMB1 billion included in this VBP and the impact on related domestic pharmaceutical companies. 
"Concept validation" of the business model of Chinese Biotech companies has been completed. Even under enormous pressure of medical insurance fee control policy, drug sales remain a reliable profit model.
Medlive's weak share price performance has a reason. The significant profitability increase in 23H1 wasn't from the improvement of main business. Its business model needs time to be further validated.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.8)- 9th VBP, Reliable Profit Model of Biotech, Medlive, China's Outlook

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IPO rules in SSE STAR Market faces adjustments, so investors have lowered expectations, which will affect the fundraising ecology. Recovery of China’s financing environment would be slower than US/Europe.</li>
<li>The CSRC has issued new policies related to stamp duty, IPO, and reduction of shares held by listed companies, which would significantly affect the capitalization path of pharmaceutical companies.</li>
<li>Junshi is “an interesting Biotech” that once generated sales/profits in scale, but is losing money again.Since Junshi is outside the first echelon and the gap is widening, we remain conservative. </li>
</ul>


IPO rules in SSE STAR Market faces adjustments, so investors have lowered expectations, which will affect the fundraising ecology. Recovery of China’s financing environment would be slower than US/Europe.
The CSRC has issued new policies related to stamp duty, IPO, and reduction of shares held by listed companies, which would significantly affect the capitalization path of pharmaceutical companies.
Junshi is “an interesting Biotech” that once generated sales/profits in scale, but is losing money again.Since Junshi is outside the first echelon and the gap is widening, we remain conservative. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1) - China's New IPO Reform, Financing Environment, Junshi Biosciences

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong sales growth momentum. In 1H23, Innovent recorded total revenue of RMB2.7bn, accounting for 51% of our previous FY estimate, which is better than our expectation.</li><li>Innovent realized RMB2.5bn product sales in 1H23, regaining strong sales with +20% YoY growth rate (vs the -2% YoY in 2H22).</li><li>The strong growth was driven by the strong performance of sintilimab and other products. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Strong sales growth momentum. In 1H23, Innovent recorded total revenue of RMB2.7bn, accounting for 51% of our previous FY estimate, which is better than our expectation.Innovent realized RMB2.5bn product sales in 1H23, regaining strong sales with +20% YoY growth rate (vs the -2% YoY in 2H22).The strong growth was driven by the strong performance of sintilimab and other products. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) – Strong Sales Growth with Improved Cost Efficiency

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In three more weeks, the index changes and the indicative capping changes for the September 2023 rebalance will be officially announced. </li>
<li>We first looked at the potential HSCEI index changes and the resultant capping flows for September 2023 in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-hscei-sep-23-flow-expectations-two-changes-likely-us-276mn-one-way" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104329" rel="noopener">Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way</a> </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's updated flow expectations which account for the changes in prices in the last ~1.5 months.</li>
</ul>


In three more weeks, the index changes and the indicative capping changes for the September 2023 rebalance will be officially announced. 
We first looked at the potential HSCEI index changes and the resultant capping flows for September 2023 in Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way 
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's updated flow expectations which account for the changes in prices in the last ~1.5 months.


Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: US$367mn One-Way, Beigene Vs Peers Interesting

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

Zai Lab (9688.HK/ZLAB.US) 2022/2023Q1 - The True Colors and the Risks Behind

In the insight, we analyzed major investment logic flaws of Zai Lab. As we expected, the company's performance is not ideal. The license-in model...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.8)- 9th VBP, Reliable Profit Model of Biotech, Medlive, China's Outlook

9th national VBP has begun. We analyzed the impact on companies. 23H1 reports make us realize even with negative policy, China Biotech can still...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1) - China's New IPO Reform, Financing Environment, Junshi Biosciences

CSRC issued new policies related to IPO reform in China.As IPO rules in A-share face adjustments, fundraising ecology will change.Junshi is far...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) – Strong Sales Growth with Improved Cost Efficiency

Strong sales growth momentum. In 1H23, Innovent recorded total revenue of RMB2.7bn, accounting for 51% of our previous FY estimate, which is better...

CMB International

Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: US$367mn One-Way, Beigene Vs Peers Interesting

I see BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) as a high conviction ADD and Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) as a high conviction DEL. Separately, I see...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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