Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Nuzran Sahib

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>Inpex's revenue decline sharply amidst low sales volume in LNG and crude oil in the Asia region.</li>
<li>The company also revised its revenue forecast upwards from its initial conservative guidance at the beginning of FY03/19. </li>
<li>The Ichthys project has commenced operations and the company expects deliveries to start from the beginning of the third quarter. The project's contribution to  FY19 Net Income has been revised due to the delays in completion.</li>
<li>We expect RoE to improve and the share to trade at a P/BV of around 0.8x-1x, similar to the three-year period before oil prices peaked in 2014.</li>
</ul>


Inpex's revenue decline sharply amidst low sales volume in LNG and crude oil in the Asia region.
The company also revised its revenue forecast upwards from its initial conservative guidance at the beginning of FY03/19. 
The Ichthys project has commenced operations and the company expects deliveries to start from the beginning of the third quarter. The project's contribution to  FY19 Net Income has been revised due to the delays in completion.
We expect RoE to improve and the share to trade at a P/BV of around 0.8x-1x, similar to the three-year period before oil prices peaked in 2014.


Inpex: Guidance Revised on Revenue and OP - No Change to Earnings

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period.SUMMARY TABLES - The tables below give the top and bottom ten companies by Results Score and the ten 'Most Optimistic' and ten 'Most Pessimistic companies based on the difference between their Results Scores and Revision Scores. RESULTS SCORE TOP 10<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/232/original/2018-08-21_11-07-40.png?1534817272" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61232"></figure>RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 10<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/247/original/2018-08-21_11-48-00.png?1534819694" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61247"></figure>MOST OPTIMISTIC <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/341/original/2018-08-22_10-41-33.png?1534902426" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61341"></figure>MOST PESSIMISTIC<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/342/original/2018-08-22_10-44-42.png?1534902469" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61342"></figure><div class="content-caption">All tables &gt; Source: Japan Analytics</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
Legend: ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten per cent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. 'NE' represents negative TTM Net Income. Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score ('FAS') is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. We would be cautious reading too much into the forecasts of the companies with low Forecast Accuracy.</div>LONG AND SHORT PORTFOLIOS - Also, we provide below long and shorts portfolios of companies where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and current share prices.

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period.SUMMARY TABLES - The tables below give the top and bottom ten companies by Results Score and the ten 'Most Optimistic' and ten 'Most Pessimistic companies based on the difference between their Results Scores and Revision Scores. RESULTS SCORE TOP 10RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 10MOST OPTIMISTIC MOST PESSIMISTICAll tables &gt; Source: Japan Analytics
Legend: ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten per cent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. 'NE' represents negative TTM Net Income. Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score ('FAS') is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. We would be cautious reading too much into the forecasts of the companies with low Forecast Accuracy.LONG AND SHORT PORTFOLIOS - Also, we provide below long and shorts portfolios of companies where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and current share prices.

Japan: Scoring Results & Revisions Summer 2018 - Top and Bottom Companies + Long & Short Portfolios

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

VAC Investments

<h2>Oil Price</h2>
Crude oil prices fell for the sixth straight week, with WTI ending the week at USD 68.5/bbl and Brent at USD 73/bbl. Expectations of rising global demand for crude in the medium-term and potential supply disruptions from Iranian sanctions were overshadowed by market concerns around the risks of global trade disruptions from the US and China's ongoing dispute, likely downside risks to European crude demand from Turkey's crude imports given ongoing currency weakness and increased supply…

Oil Price
Crude oil prices fell for the sixth straight week, with WTI ending the week at USD 68.5/bbl and Brent at USD 73/bbl. Expectations of rising global demand for crude in the medium-term and potential supply disruptions from Iranian sanctions were overshadowed by market concerns around the risks of global trade disruptions from the US and China's ongoing dispute, likely downside risks to European crude demand from Turkey's crude imports given ongoing currency weakness and increased supply…

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

We’ve been bullish on crude oil this year and the surprise has been weak US gasoline demand, creating a growing product surplus rippling through the global downstream sector.US gasoline demand is now forecast to fall marginally for the first time since 2012 to 9.3m bpd, according to the latest <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/" target="_blank">EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook</a> report. That has depressed Asian downstream spreads, although refining margins in Singapore have rebounded on surging demand for gasoline and jet fuel as crude oil prices…

We’ve been bullish on crude oil this year and the surprise has been weak US gasoline demand, creating a growing product surplus rippling through the global downstream sector.US gasoline demand is now forecast to fall marginally for the first time since 2012 to 9.3m bpd, according to the latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report. That has depressed Asian downstream spreads, although refining margins in Singapore have rebounded on surging demand for gasoline and jet fuel as crude oil prices…

Japan

INPEX CORPORATION is a holding company established through the reorganization of INPEX Corp and Teikoku Oil.  The Company manages subsidiaries that explores, produces, and sells oil and natural gas.

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Inpex Corp (1605 JP)

Inpex: Guidance Revised on Revenue and OP - No Change to Earnings

Inpex's revenue decline sharply amidst low sales volume in LNG and crude oil in the Asia region. The company also revised its revenue forecast...

Nuzran Sahib

Japan: Scoring Results & Revisions Summer 2018 - Top and Bottom Companies + Long & Short Portfolios

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 21

Oil Price Crude oil prices fell for the sixth straight week, with WTI ending the week at USD 68.5/bbl and Brent at USD 73/bbl. Expectations of...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Worst Over for Asian Refining Spreads?

We’ve been bullish on crude oil this year and the surprise has been weak US gasoline demand, creating a growing product surplus rippling through...

Sean Maher

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