Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. NDX100 +1.8%  SOX +3.3% vs. SPX +0.9% DOW +0.6%; Tech back ahead of Fed; Energy a different story as Oil fell on D-S worries; All eyes remain on CPI/Fed</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; Japan lead yesterday vs US..rarity; Expect continued Equity follow through; Seino HD(9076) -Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA-Path to Solid State Battery Commercialization?</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nidec Succession Resolution in Sight, but Nagamori Premium May Dissappear</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. NDX100 +1.8%  SOX +3.3% vs. SPX +0.9% DOW +0.6%; Tech back ahead of Fed; Energy a different story as Oil fell on D-S worries; All eyes remain on CPI/Fed
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; Japan lead yesterday vs US..rarity; Expect continued Equity follow through; Seino HD(9076) -Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA-Path to Solid State Battery Commercialization?
NUGGET. Nidec Succession Resolution in Sight, but Nagamori Premium May Dissappear


Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But...

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Strong close to SPX on Friday +1.4% on the Day; 3.5%WoW; +7.0%QTD; Light Macro calender this week with Job report Key; OPEC+ surprise cut; Tesla Misses 1Q</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Fut +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 132.9; At the start of the new fiscal year, strong tailwinds ahead for Japan: BOJ normalization; Shareholder AGMs; Shareholder returns improvements; Bullish !</li>
<li>NUGGET. Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth in Japan. This is essential to extend the gains made this year, or we risk reverting to the status quo. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Strong close to SPX on Friday +1.4% on the Day; 3.5%WoW; +7.0%QTD; Light Macro calender this week with Job report Key; OPEC+ surprise cut; Tesla Misses 1Q
JAPAN.  NKY Fut +0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 132.9; At the start of the new fiscal year, strong tailwinds ahead for Japan: BOJ normalization; Shareholder AGMs; Shareholder returns improvements; Bullish !
NUGGET. Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth in Japan. This is essential to extend the gains made this year, or we risk reverting to the status quo. 


Good Morning Japan |SPX-Sizzling 1Q Close; NUGGET: Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX carve out gains on relief Bank rally; Energy leads on Oil supply distruptions; Tech lags on profit taking; Crypto in spotlight as US cracks down on Binance/CEO CZ</li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futs -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.6;  Diplomatic Row btw Japan-China brewing on arrest of Japanese national for spying; SMFG expands in Vietnam; Bullish Toray MTP</li>
<li>NUGGET. Softbank just cannot catch a break. Son-san ARM IPO to be wildly successful. $70bn IPO Valuation seem a tall ask. Can Son-san pull this one off ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX carve out gains on relief Bank rally; Energy leads on Oil supply distruptions; Tech lags on profit taking; Crypto in spotlight as US cracks down on Binance/CEO CZ
JAPAN. Nikkei Futs -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.6;  Diplomatic Row btw Japan-China brewing on arrest of Japanese national for spying; SMFG expands in Vietnam; Bullish Toray MTP
NUGGET. Softbank just cannot catch a break. Son-san ARM IPO to be wildly successful. $70bn IPO Valuation seem a tall ask. Can Son-san pull this one off ?


Good Morning Japan |More Bank Relief as SPX Gains 0.2%; NUGGET: Softbank- Just Can't Catch a Break

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Softer tone from Powell; US equities find support; BUT, Rates extend sell off; Yield Curve -1.08%..screams recession; Shocker from EU as Germany blocks legislation banning ICE sales from 2035. </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY +0.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 137.4;  Japan set to extend rally for 5th day on weaker yen; Asahi Kasei books ¥185bn impairment loss; Another BUY call on Fanuc</li>
<li>NUGGET. Rakuten stock has been in the doldrums thanks deep losses in domestic mobile ops. Losses likely peaked. Now, Rakuten Symphony is clearly gaining traction. Time to revisit?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Softer tone from Powell; US equities find support; BUT, Rates extend sell off; Yield Curve -1.08%..screams recession; Shocker from EU as Germany blocks legislation banning ICE sales from 2035. 
JAPAN. NKY +0.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 137.4;  Japan set to extend rally for 5th day on weaker yen; Asahi Kasei books ¥185bn impairment loss; Another BUY call on Fanuc
NUGGET. Rakuten stock has been in the doldrums thanks deep losses in domestic mobile ops. Losses likely peaked. Now, Rakuten Symphony is clearly gaining traction. Time to revisit?


Good Morning Japan | Softer Tone from Powell; EU EV Shocker; NUGGET: Rakuten Symphony - Wins Coming!

Japan

INPEX CORPORATION is a holding company established through the reorganization of INPEX Corp and Teikoku Oil.  The Company manages subsidiaries that explores, produces, and sells oil and natural gas.

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Inpex Corp (1605 JP)

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But...

Tech Back as US Equities Well Bid; NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; ; Seino HD(9076) - Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA - Sees path to Solid State...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |SPX-Sizzling 1Q Close; NUGGET: Labor Mobility Needed for Sustainable Wage Growth

US equities close out a solid quarter. For Japan, at the start of the new fiscal year, strong tailwinds ahead: BOJ normalization; Shareholder AGMs;...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |More Bank Relief as SPX Gains 0.2%; NUGGET: Softbank- Just Can't Catch a Break

SPX carve out gains on relief Bank rally; Tech lags on profit taking; Crypto in spotlight as US cracks down on Binance/CEO CZ. Japan to follow. ...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | Softer Tone from Powell; EU EV Shocker; NUGGET: Rakuten Symphony - Wins Coming!

NKY +0.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 137.4; Japan set to extend rally for 5th day on weaker yen; Asahi Kasei books ¥185bn impairment loss; Another BUY call...

Mark Chadwick

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